Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
Point Forecast Updated Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:32pm EDT
Another chilly day is on tap for Tuesday with raw northeast winds along with some spotty light showers, drizzle and fog beginning to move in off the ocean. Considerably milder Wednesday with continued risk for showers. A frontal wave will bring more widespread rain Thursday into early Friday which may lead to renewed flooding concerns. Drying out by Friday or Saturday but there remains uncertainty in the timing. Dry and seasonable next weekend but blustery on Saturday.
Rain
Lo 38 °F
Rain and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a low around 38. North wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain Likely
Hi 55 °F
Rain likely and patchy fog before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Northwest wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Partly Cloudy
Lo 35 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.
Sunny
Hi 53 °F
Sunny, with a high near 53. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Rain
Lo 37 °F
A slight chance of rain after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind 6 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance Light Rain then Partly Sunny
Hi 53 °F
A slight chance of rain before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Northwest wind 7 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Partly Cloudy
Lo 33 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Mostly Sunny
Hi 53 °F
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. West wind around 10 mph.
Chance Light Rain
Lo 37 °F
A chance of rain after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Light Rain Likely
Hi 46 °F
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. East wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Light Rain Likely
Lo 36 °F
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. East wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Chance Light Rain
Hi 44 °F
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Northeast wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Chance Light Rain
Lo 34 °F
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind 14 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Chance Light Rain
Hi 46 °F
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Updated Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:50pm EDT
000 FXUS61 KBOX 252323 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 723 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another chilly day is on tap for Tuesday with raw northeast winds along with some spotty light showers, drizzle and fog beginning to move in off the ocean. Considerably milder Wednesday with continued risk for showers. A frontal wave will bring more widespread rain Thursday into early Friday which may lead to renewed flooding concerns. Drying out by Friday or Saturday but there remains uncertainty in the timing. Dry and seasonable next weekend but blustery on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... * Remaining windy tonight along the coast...esp Cape/Islands * Spotty light showers/drizzle possible near the coast by daybreak * Overnight low temps in the 20s in distant interior...30s elsewhere Large high pressure will slide a bit further northeast tonight and center itself over the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time...a distant ocean storm well off the mid-Atlantic coast will continue to remain nearly stationary. This will combined with a cooling boundary layer to allow low clouds to begin to back in off the ocean...mainly after midnight. While generally dry weather is on tap for tonight...enough low level moisture/saturation may be present to allow spotty light showers/drizzle to begin to impact areas near the coast toward daybreak. The pressure gradient and onshore component to the wind will continue to result in windy conditions along the coast. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph along the coast, 35-45 mph for the Cape/Islands and between 45-50 mph will continue into the evening. These winds will slacken a tad overnight...but only by 5 knots or so. We will continue the Wind Advisory for Nantucket until 10 pm. Enough wind and the eventual increase in low clouds overnight should hold overnight low temps in the 30s along the coastal plain. Further inland...especially parts of western and north central MA...winds may decouple enough for low temps to bottom out in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Points... * Cool/Raw with spotty light showers/drizzle Tue esp near coast * Low clouds probably hold Tue highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s * Spotty light showers/drizzle & fog Tue night Details... Tuesday & Tuesday night... The overall setup remains quite similar with large high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and the distant ocean storm well off the mid-Atlantic coast. This NE low level flow will continue to result in low clouds overspreading the remainder of the region Tuesday. The moist Maritime NE flow will result in rather chilly temperatures with highs mainly in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Some guidance suggests it may be a bit milder in the CT River Valley...but at this point leaned toward the cooler guidance given low clouds/NE winds. Still will be breezy along the coast with gusts of 25 to 35 mph during the first part of the day and 30-40 mph for the Cape/Islands. We do expect these winds to diminish later Tue and especially Tue night as the pressure gradient weakens further. Enough shortwave energy from the distant ocean storm coupled with an abundance of low level moisture to allow for some spotty showers along with drizzle and fog spreading in off the ocean Tuesday. The focus for this will be along the coastal plain...but will spread further west later Tue into Tue night. Rainfall amounts will be quite light...but spotty light showers/drizzle will result in dreary early spring season weather that we often see. We also should mention that given the strong high pressure system in the Canadian Maritimes...there is a low risk that the highest terrain drop to around 32 degrees. This may allow for some spotty freezing drizzle Tue night...but this would be confined to the highest terrain of the northern Worcester Hills and the east slopes of the Berks generally about 1K feet in elevation. It is a low risk...but something will need to keep an eye on with later forecasts. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Points... * Milder on Wednesday with scattered rain showers. * More widespread, heavier rainfall arrives Wednesday night through Thursday, potentially renewing flooding concerns. * Drying out Friday or Saturday and remaining dry through early next week (some uncertainty as to when the rain ends). * High temperatures in the 50s. The weather pattern for mid to late week can be described as unsettled over much of the Northeast including Southern New England owing to a broad trough over the entire central/eastern U.S. The trough axis moves from the Great Plains on Wednesday to the southeast U.S. by Thursday and crosses New England around Friday. This results in rain with the potential for some interior snow, coming to an end around Friday as zonal flow returns for the weekend. Beneath a much drier airmass we should remain dry through at least Monday with temperatures near to slightly above normal (in the low to mid 50s). The focus period for the long term forecast will be Wednesday night through Thursday night (at least). This 24-36 hour period has the potential to deliver another round of 2-3 inches of rain to the region which (I'm sure we don't need to remind you) only recently received this much rain and continues to see some rivers in flood stage. The most important thing to determining where/if we deal with exacerbated flooding will be the ultimate track of the storm and the axis of heaviest rainfall. It is too soon to have a high degree of confidence on where this axis sets up, but the most recent ECMWF global guidance has come west, in line with the GFS/Canadian guidance showing those large rainfall amounts over interior southern New England rather than further east/offshore. Of course, we don't want to focus on deterministic model runs, but that agreement isn't what you would want to see if you're hoping for a miss offshore. At this time frame we focus on ensembles, two of which (the GEFS and EPS) are indicating a 20-40% and 10-30% chance of AOA 2 inches of rain respectively. Not huge numbers, but 3 days out certainly indicative of potential for concern given how saturated the ground is already. The atmospheric moisture and dynamics are there, with a 1.25" PWAT plume directly from the Gulf of Mexico and large scale ascent from favorable placement beneath a 150 kt upper jet, but just how/if the northern and southern streams interact is unknown at this time. Additionally, probabilistic hydrographs from the NAEFS and GEFS indicate renewed flooding for RI rivers. This system will also bring a period of gusty winds as it passes late week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update... Tonight...High Confidence. VFR conditions persist through the evening. It will continue to be windy along the coast into this evening with gusts of 25 to 35 knots...but 35-45 knots across the Cape/Islands with the strongest of those winds across Nantucket. Mainly MVFR ceilings should advance westward off the ocean during the overnight hours. Timing is a bit uncertain...but think they will approach as far west as areas near the CT River Valley by 12z. Tuesday & Tuesday night...High Confidence. Widespread low end MVFR-IFR will continue to spread west Tue morning eventually covering the entire region. We also expect to see spotty light showers along with areas of drizzle & fog to develop. This will be first across areas near the coast and may spread further inland. By Tue night conditions will be more in the line of IFR to localized LIFR ceilings/visibilities with spotty light showers, drizzle and fog patches. Low risk for a period of freezing drizzle in the highest terrain of the Berks/northern Worcester Hills...mainly about 1K feet. NE wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots along the coast and up to 35 knots for the Cape/Islands with the strongest during the first half of the day. Wind gusts will be on the downtrend later Tue and especially Tue night. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. RA likely, patchy BR. Thursday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. RA likely, patchy BR. Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, patchy BR. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA. Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. * High Seas & Gale Force Wind Gusts tonight into Tue... Tonight into Tuesday...High Confidence. Large high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to combined with a distant ocean storm off the mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in the continuation of NE wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots with perhaps a few gusts up to 45 knots near and southeast of Nantucket. Gale Warnings remain posted for most of our waters with some strong SCA across our northern waters. Winds should slacken a tad for the second half of Tue...but this will be a gradual process. Seas of 8-13 feet will be common into Tuesday with seas nearly 15 feet just east of Nantucket. Showers and fog may also begin to impact the waters Tue. Tuesday night...High Confidence. The pressure gradient will continue to weaken. This will allow winds to drop below small craft advisory thresholds across all waters by late evening. Lingering easterly swell will keep seas well above small craft advisory thresholds...but they will be on the down trend. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Slight chance of rain. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ237. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/BW NEAR TERM...Frank SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...Frank/BW MARINE...Frank/BW
Point forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93/forecast
Zone forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/zones/forecast/MAZ014/forecast
Hourly forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93/forecast/hourly
Hourly detail:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93
Point detail:
https://api.weather.gov/points/42.4399,-71.2405
Alerts:
https://api.weather.gov/alerts?active=1&point=42.4399,-71.2405