Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
Point Forecast Updated Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:08am EDT
Active period of weather arrives late tonight through Saturday night with heavy rain, flooding, wintry weather, and marine hazards. Drying out Sunday into early next week but rather windy along the coast, especially Cape and Islands. Below normal temperatures will prevail. The next chance of rain will be Wednesday and Thursday as another frontal system approaches.
Light Rain
Hi 50 °F
Rain and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Light Rain
Lo 36 °F
Rain and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind 5 to 12 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Rain And Snow Likely then Chance Rain And Snow
Hi 48 °F
Rain likely before 7am, then rain and snow likely between 7am and 8am, then a chance of rain and snow between 8am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Partly Cloudy
Lo 35 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Sunny
Hi 51 °F
Sunny, with a high near 51. West wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Partly Cloudy
Lo 35 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind 10 to 17 mph.
Mostly Sunny
Hi 53 °F
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Northwest wind 10 to 16 mph.
Partly Cloudy
Lo 33 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 9 to 16 mph.
Mostly Sunny
Hi 54 °F
Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Northwest wind around 12 mph.
Chance Light Rain
Lo 37 °F
A chance of rain after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. East wind 7 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Light Rain Likely
Hi 48 °F
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. East wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Light Rain Likely
Lo 37 °F
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Chance Light Rain
Hi 46 °F
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Northeast wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Chance Light Rain
Lo 36 °F
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind around 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Updated Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:08am EDT
000 FXUS61 KBOX 222341 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 741 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Active period of weather arrives late tonight through Saturday night with heavy rain, flooding, wintry weather, and marine hazards. Drying out Sunday into early next week but rather windy along the coast, especially Cape and Islands. Below normal temperatures will prevail. The next chance of rain will be Wednesday and Thursday as another frontal system approaches. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Did not make major changes to the ongoing forecast overnight. Did tweak temperatures and timing of clouds to reflect latest observations. Temperatures were a little lower across portions of NW MA, which may be a sign of cold air entrenching. Clouds have also moved in, and will only lower from this point forward. Still thinking the timing for precipitation remained on track, as well as the precipitation types. Previous Discussion... Tonight/early tomorrow First half of the night is quiet across the region with some increasing cloud cover and light winds ahead of a robust low pressure system that will move over the region tomorrow. Active weather begins to settle over southern New England during the early morning hours as a surface warm front associated with a deepening low-pressure system begins to lift over the region. Temperatures on the north side of the warm frontal boundary will be well below freezing. As warmer air aloft overruns the cooler air in place, we'll begin to see precipitation develop in the form of light snow showers across western MA and CT. As the warm nose edges further north, a melting layer develops between about 850 and 900 hPa. With surface temps remaining at or below freezing, this will support a freezing rain profile for north/northwest Hartford county, western MA, and northern Worcester county. Based on latest suite of ensemble guidance, freezing rain may begin as early as 5am across western MA/CT and continue through 09 to 10 am when surface temps will begin to rise above freezing and allow a changeover to rain. Prior to the changeover, substantial ice accumulations from a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch or more will be possible. For this reason, a winter weather advisory remains in effect for the aforementioned areas expected to experience freezing rain. Winds increasing out of the southeast to 10 to 15 knots during this period as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow By mid-morning tomorrow, surface temps will have increased to above freezing across southern New England. This will result in any remaining frozen precipitation changing over to rain. From there on out, the rest of tomorrow is a complete wash out. A coastal low develops and moves off the mid-Atlantic coast before tracking over or just southeast of The Cape/Islands. An impressive region of frontogenesis develops across southern New England by early afternoon and will support a period of heavy rainfall that may result in urban, small stream, or poor drainage flooding. Latest HREF run paints a swath of 2 to 4 inches of rain across CT, RI, and southeastern MA with the heaviest rainfall between roughly 2pm and 8pm. While confidence in a significant rainfall event is higher than normal, even subtle changes in the storm track could result in the axis of heaviest rainfall lifting north or south, so there still remains a bit of uncertainty at 24 hours out. Given the relatively wide goal post for the axis of heaviest rainfall, a flood watch is in effect for the southern and eastern forecast areas. Only northern Worcester county, Franklin, and Hampshire counties are excluded. In addition to small stream flooding, some larger area rivers in southern RI are at risk for flooding as well (see Hydro section). Temperatures range from upper 30s to low 40s across the interior/northwest areas tomorrow, with more mild temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s across southeastern MA and RI. Tomorrow Night Surface cold front associated with the low-pressure system moving over southern New England pushes through the region tomorrow evening. This brings precipitation to and end for most of the region from west to east between about 8pm and 2am. Clearing and strong northwest winds from 15 to 25 mph will follow the cold front. Precip lasts a bit longer over The Cape/Islands tapering off between roughly midnight and 4am. Temps dive into the lower to mid 20s across the interior/northwest areas and upper 20s to lower 30s across southeastern MA/RI prior to sunrise on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights: * Mostly dry Sun into Tue, but blustery with below normal temperatures. Quite windy over the Cape/Islands * Increasing risk of wet weather Wed into next Fri. Temperatures trending back above normal late next week. A broad mid level trough is expected to morph into a mid level cutoff over the North Atlantic early next week. This should trap the surface low pressure beneath it, and keep it lingering offshore of southern New England. Still some uncertainty in just how far offshore this low pressure will wind up being. At present, thinking the latest NationalBlend (NBM) deterministic solution is on the pessimistic side of the envelope. Maintained a faster departure of clouds and rainfall Sunday. High pressure over eastern Canada is expected to nudge into our region for Monday and Tuesday, leading to mainly dry and partly cloudy conditions across most of our region. The exception to that will be across far eastern MA, and especially the Cape and islands. Thinking clouds may linger longer there, along with a few showers Sunday morning. Will possibly need a Wind Advisory at some point Sunday into Sunday night into Monday. It's marginal still, so not very high confidence. With all the other ongoing headlines, will wait until confidence increases before issuing such a headline. The weak high pressure should maintain dry weather MOnday and Tuesday, but also bring in colder air with a persistent N to NE wind. Eventually though, this high pressure should break down and move farther offshore. That will open the door for a slow- moving front to impact southern New England late next week, most likely some time from late Wednesday into Friday. It should not be a total washout, but looking at the prospect of a prolonged period of unsettled weather. Will need to monitor the impact of any additional rainfall on our creeks, streams and rivers, which should still be recovering from the rainfall this weekend. Temperatures should trend warmer mid week, and likely return to above normal temperatures Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High confidence in trends. Moderate in timing. VFR through about 06Z with light southwesterly winds becoming more south/southeasterly. Conditions begin to deteriorate after 06Z as precip associated with a surface warm front lifting over southern New England begins to support MVFR ceilings and light precip. Frozen precip will be an issue at the western terminals (BDL/BAF/ORH). A brief period of -SN, followed by -FZRA, will be possible beginning as early as 08Z. Elsewhere, any precip will be limited to -RA, but likely will be closer to or after 12Z before precip reaches the eastern terminals. Tomorrow...High confidence in trends. Moderate in timing. Light FZRA may persist at BDL/BAF/ORH through as late as 14Z, but will changeover to rain thereafter with surface temps rising above freezing after sunrise. MVFR cigs/vsbys deteriorate to IFR by 18Z as rain overspreads the region. Rain picks up in intensity after 18Z and remains steady through 00Z. Southeast winds gradually increase throughout the day ranging from 10 kt across the interior to 15 to 20 kt over the coastal plain. Tomorrow Night... High confidence in trends. Moderate in timing. IFR/MVFR cigs improve to VFR returns as precip gradually ends from west to east from 00 to 06Z. Rain lingers a bit longer over The Cape/Island terminals likely tapering off between 06 and 09Z with VFR returning to this area between 09 and 12Z. Winds strengthen after 00Z behind a surface cold front. 15 to 25 knot sustained northwest winds with gusts up to 35 knots. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight Quiet marine conditions through about midnight tonight. Thereafter, winds begin to increase out of the southeast ahead of robust low pressure system with sustained winds of 20 knots and gusts up to 25 knots by sunrise. Tomorrow Conditions deteriorate rapidly tomorrow as a strong low pressure moves over southern New England. Steady 20 knot southeast winds persist with gusts up to 35 knots possible, especially over the southern coastal waters. Seas gradually increase from 4 feet early in the day to 6 to 9 feet by tomorrow evening. Nearshore eastern zones stay a bit lower with 4 to 6 foot seas. A Gale Watch is in effect through Monday morning. Tomorrow Night A cold front moves over the waters tomorrow night. Winds become even stronger out of the north/northwest with 30 knot sustained winds for most of the marine zones. Wind gusts from 30 to 40 knots. Seas increase to 10 to 13 feet over the outer coastal waters, and 6 to 10 feet for the nearshore waters. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Sunday Night through Monday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rainfall tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening is likely to lead to minor, and perhaps moderate, river flooding across southern Rhode Island. Greatest risk for minor flooding appears to be along the Wood River at Hope Valley, where the MMEFS indicates a 94 percent chance of minor flood stage being reached, and a 54 percent chance of moderate flood stage being reached. Several other rivers across southern New England including the Shawsheen, Charles, Assabet, Pawcatuck, and Pawtuxet Rivers are at an elevated risk to reach at least minor flood stage due to excessive rainfall. The Pawtuxet River at Cranston is of particular concern given latest ensemble forecast guidance paints a bullseye of 2 to 4 inches of rain over this basin in only a 3 to 6 hour time period. MMEFS indicates a 63 percent chance of moderate flood stage being reached, and even a 24 percent chance of major flood stage being reached. Residents and businesses near this location will want to keep a close eye on updates for potential River Flood Warnings and take action accordingly. .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Saturday for CTZ002. Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Saturday for MAZ002>004-008>011-026. Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for MAZ005>007-009-011>024. RI...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Saturday for CTZ002. Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Saturday for MAZ002>004-008>011-026. Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for MAZ005>007-009-011>024. RI...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM NEAR TERM...Belk/RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/RM MARINE...Belk/RM HYDROLOGY...RM
Point forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93/forecast
Zone forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/zones/forecast/MAZ014/forecast
Hourly forecast:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93/forecast/hourly
Hourly detail:
https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/65,93
Point detail:
https://api.weather.gov/points/42.4399,-71.2405
Alerts:
https://api.weather.gov/alerts?active=1&point=42.4399,-71.2405