Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 071217 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 717 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and windy weather today with highest gusts across the higher elevations spots. Winds diminish tonight with colder conditions into Saturday. A snow storm appears likely later Saturday night into Sunday morning, with perhaps some mixing for some locations towards the end of the storm, especially near the south coast. Dry but cold weather returns Sunday night and Monday. This active weather pattern may continue next week depending on the track of a couple low pressures in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Gusty west winds starting this morning, especially over the higher elevations. * Wind Advisory for central and western MA. * Mainly dry conditions, with a chance for a snow shower or two across western MA. Fog was dissipating rapidly this morning. Monitoring a couple bands of precipitation this morning. One was over central MA, and resulted in light rain or snow showers. The other was a more impressive band over NY state. This was right along a front, which should move past southern New England by this afternoon. Latest HRRR and RAP runs are not that bullish on this second band making it too far east of the Berkshires, but will need to monitor this closely. Did introduce some precipitation chances into the east slopes of the Berkshires for this morning. Also added some sprinkles/flurries farther east. Previous Discussions... Cold air advection gets underway this morning, leading to gusty winds later today. Wind Advisory continues for those areas expected to see the highest gusts up around 45-50 mph. Elsewhere, still anticipating peak gusts up to 35-40 mph. High pressure to our west will be the main feature influencing our weather today. mainly dry, but cannot completely rule out a stray shower or two across western MA due to some enhanced moisture from the Great Lakes. The upslope west flow may be enough to squeeze out a shower or two. There will at least be some diurnal clouds later today. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry conditions most of this time. * Next storm may arrive late Saturday High pressure building more directly overhead means less gusty winds and dry weather. Slightly lower temperatures during this time, which should help set the stage for another snow storm. Timing of this storm could have it arrive later Saturday afternoon into the evening. It could be slower, should this high pressure linger longer than currently expectations. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key messages: * Snowstorm for southern New England Saturday night into Sunday morning * Brief quiet period for Monday * Monitoring for more unsettled weather midweek Details... Not much has changed compared to the last discussion. A shortwave from the Midwest will continue its movement east with a strengthening surface low ahead of it. Latest guidance, ensemble and deterministic, continued to show this low's center passing over the 70/40 benchmark, indicating a strong chance for significant snowfall across southern New England. GEFS members remain in relatively good agreement regarding its track near/south of the benchmark. As this track has shifted south, the chances for mixed precipitation have diminished considerably so snow is now the expected ptype in this system. However, this track is still not set in stone and we are only just starting to get into the higher resolution guidance for this system. ECMWF ensemble members are still indicating some spread, but the general solution still favors a passage over the benchmark. Other ensembles and their members are in good agreement on this track. There is a chance upcoming model runs might track the low further south, which would decrease snowfall totals across the region, particularly in the northern areas. Ensemble probs for snowfall accumulations +6 inches are sitting around 40-50% by the end of the day on Sunday for southern New England. Probs increase to 80% and even 90% (GEPS) for +6 inches of total accumulation in spots across the northern half of MA. Temperatures Saturday night expected to remain in the low 20s, once again favoring snow. Cold temperatures aloft from a northern high have 925 mb temps mostly around -5C (starting slightly cooler) and 850 mb temps also at and below -5C. Upper air temps may elevate a degree or two just south of the region due to WAA. PWATs around 0.5" or more across much of southern New England will also encourage a healthier environment for snow. Colder air with a building ridge of high pressure will lead temperatures to fall for Monday, but quiet and dry conditions will return for a bit before the next possible storm(s) approach during the week. Highs Monday are expected to range primarily in the low 30s and high 20s and lows will return to the single digits and teens for much of southern New England. There are hints at another possible low or two passing just to the south of the region once again for Tuesday into Wednesday, then again into Thursday. The spread on both days across ensembles and their members is still large, so nothing certain quite yet; just something to continue to monitor. Generally, the story going into the middle of next week is the unsettled, active pattern is expected to continue. Details will become clearer as time goes on. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Mainly VFR conditions today along with increasing W/NW winds, gusting as high as 30-40 kt. Last of the IFR conditions should improve by 14Z across SE MA and the islands. Risk for a brief snow/rain shower this morning ahead of a cold front. Winds gradually subside tonight into Saturday, with VFR continuing. KBOS TAF...High Confidence in trends, but lower confidence in timing. KBDL TAF...High Confidence in trends, but lower confidence in timing. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. SN. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Overall high confidence through Saturday. Winds increase this morning as mixing layer deepens. Strongest gusts to gale force are expected on the waters off the eastern MA coast, mainly across the open waters. Elsewhere, forecast soundings indicate gusts overall will mainly be just short, but may still be a few 35 knot wind gusts. Still thinking a strong Small Craft Advisories are more appropriate for these waters. Winds and seas subside tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds into region from Great Lakes. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of snow, chance of rain. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of snow. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for MAZ002>022-026. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ002>004- 008>012-026. RI...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for RIZ001>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235- 237. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...Hrencecin AVIATION...Belk/Hrencecin MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
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