Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 121945 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 345 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded front will sweep across the region late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by a wind shift to the southwest along with drier and cooler air. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers, especially in CT and western- central MA. It will remain mostly cloudy tonight and Saturday, along with turning seasonably cool. Sunday is largely dry and comfortable, a quick moving system does bring showers late Sunday and exits before sunrise on Monday. Early next week features dry and above normal temperatures. Mid to late next week the forecast becomes unsettled with rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 345 PM update: Occluded front moving into southwest CT at 330 pm. This feature is accompanied by a cluster of showers moving SW to NE thru CT and into western-central MA. Showers will be much less numerous in RI and eastern MA late this afternoon/early evening. Despite western MA being in a marginal risk from SPC, current thinking is the limited instability will preclude any storms from forming and any thunderstorms confined to much farther north across VT and upstate NY, north of Albany. The front will also be accompanied by a wind shift from SSE to the SW, ushering in drier and cooler air. In fact, the core of the cold air aloft (-26C at 500 mb) advects across SNE between 06z-09z. This could trigger an isolated shower overnight, otherwise mainly dry weather prevails in the post frontal airmass. Despite the cold air aloft, lows only dip into the 40s overnight, about 10 degs above normal. Dew pts only drop into the 40s as well, also above normal for mid April, but there should be sufficient wind/mixing to preclude any fog. Hence, remaining breezy behind the front, with SW winds 15-25 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 345 PM update: Saturday: Good mixing via WSW winds 15-25 mph, gusting up to 30 mph along the south coast including Cape Cod and the Islands. This promotes drier air aloft to mix to the surface, with dew pts falling into the 30s. Cyclonic flow will yield lots of clouds, mostly cloudy the likely scenario. Best chance for sunny breaks will be over southeast MA, including Cape Cod and Islands. Temps begin to warm aloft during the day, this should limit instability shower coverage to isolated, hence a mostly dry day. The exception will be across western MA, where upslope flow over the Berkshires will yield more numerous showers for western MA. Temps seasonable Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Although, there will be a cool breeze as noted above, from the WSW 15-25 mph, higher gusts south coast MA/RI. Saturday night... Short wave ridging and warming temps aloft will promote decreasing cloudiness. Thus, dry weather prevails. Gusty west winds 15-25 mph during the evening, slowly slacken overnight. Seasonably cool with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 345 PM update... Highlights: * Dry for much of Sunday, but a quick moving system will bring showers late evening and wrapping up predawn Monday. * Early next week, Monday and Tuesday, features dry conditions and above normal temperatures. * Unsettled conditions return to the region by mid/late next week. Sunday and Sunday Night - Brief mid-level ridging and surface high pressure noses north, leading to an all around a nice day with sunshine during the first-half of the day, but increasing cloud cover during the afternoon ahead of a fast moving low pressure system coming out of the northern Great Lakes. Afternoon temperatures are pretty comfortable, 850mb temperatures are +2C to +5C, with a well mixed boundary layer, expect highs in the upper-50s to lower-60s. Winds do increase during the afternoon as well due to a quick moving 925mb LLJ, while the core is primarily over southern Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, southwest gusts are in the range of 20 and 30 MPH, interior winds are generally around 15 to 20 MPH. Most if not all of the daylight hours remain dry, it is not until the late afternoon/early evening we introduce POPs across far western zones. PWATs are fairly healthy around 0.8 and 1.1 inch, the best forcing does remain north across northern New England. Do think there will be terrain enhancement for the Berkshires, leading to little more in the way of rainfall overnight. With some MUCAPE don't be surprised if there are some rumbles of thunder - SPC does have areas west of Hartford and Springfield under general thunder in its day three outlook. Surface low pressure system is progressive and exits east of the coastal waters before dawn on Monday. QPF is less than a tenth of an inch across much of the CWA, with slightly higher values for the eastern slopes of the Berkshires where two tenths of an inch is possible. Monday - Low pressure system races east of the coastal waters with a drier air mass aloft moving into the region. Clouds to start, though expect morning clouds gives way to a mostly sunny Patriots Day. Made an adjustment to sky cover, as NBM held onto higher values of sky cover despite the mid-levels drying. Also lowered wind gusts due to the high bias NBM, had gusts 20 to 25 knots. BUFKIT showed winds at the top of the boundary layer generally between 12 and 17 knots, did blend in the CONSALL guidance to temper those gusts down. Northwest winds 10 mph with occasional gusts 15 to 20 mph. With the winds at the top of the boundary layer greater than 10 knots, the threat for a sea breeze at Boston remains low. Temperatures climb once again into the 60s, perhaps reaching the 70 degree mark due to the dry atmosphere and pre-greenup conditions, recipe to have over performing temperatures. Tuesday - Another stunning day thanks to surface high pressure to the south and mid-level ridging aloft. Do think our conditions will be similar to Monday, though slightly more of a WNW breeze. Mostly sunny conditions and highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees. As mentioned on Monday, this pre-greenup period and dry atmosphere could allow the highs to sneak up into the lower-70s. Wednesday and Thursday - This period does look unsettled as the global models have a developing surface low pressure system in the central plains on Tuesday that races towards the Great Lakes. Perhaps a warm front develops with showers on Wednesday with a trailing cold front on Thursday. Still a lot of time between now and then. Have run with POPs of Chance due to the uncertainty at this point in time. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update... Thru 00z...high confidence on trends, lower on exact timing of details. At 18z, occluded front from NYC area northwest into NY state is accompanied by a wind shift from SSE to SW and cigs improving from IFR/LIFR to MVFR/VFR. This will overspread SNE between 19z-20z across western CT/MA, then arriving into eastern MA 22z-23z. Shower activity with this front should be confined to CT and western-central MA. Mainly dry weather prevails across RI into eastern MA. Pre and post frontal winds will gusts up to 30 kt. After 00z: High confidence on trends, lower on exact timing of details. VFR cloud bases and mainly dry, but MVFR with scattered showers across western MA. SSW winds 15-25 KT. Saturday: High confidence. VFR cloud bases with just a few isolated showers possible. However, MVFR with scattered showers across western MA. SW winds 15-25 kt, gusts up to 30 kt south coast, including Cape Cod and Islands. Saturday night: high confidence. VFR, except MVFR early across western MA. West winds 15-25 kt slowly diminishing toward Sunday morning. Dry weather prevails. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF trends, but lower on exact timing. Frontal passage/wind shift and improving to MVFR/VFR approximately 22z-23z. Pre and post frontal winds gusting up to 30 KT at times. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF trends, but lower on exact timing. Frontal passage/wind shift and improving to MVFR/VFR approximately around 20z. Pre and post frontal winds gusting up to 30 KT at times. Showers til about 20z-21z. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 345 PM update: Tonight... Frontal passage this evening, shifting winds from SSE to SSW. Similar speeds pre and post frontal, 15-25 kt, gusting up to 30 kt at times. A few showers possible this evening, the dry. Vsby improves with the wind shift. Saturday... Mainly dry weather and good vsby. WSW winds 15-25 kt, up to 30 kt across the southern MA/RI waters. Saturday night... Dry weather continues with winds becoming more westerly and slowly diminishing overnight, from 15-25 kt in the evening to 10-20 toward daybreak Sunday. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Dooley NEAR TERM...Nocera SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...Dooley AVIATION...Nocera/Dooley MARINE...Nocera/Dooley
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