Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

54°F

6/9/2023 9:59pm

Lexington Conditions: Few Clouds
Temperature: 54.0°F / 12.2°C
Dew Point: 52.3°F
Relative Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.69 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.22 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 030812
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
412 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cool and raw weather this weekend with gusty NE winds 
and periods of showers at times, especially eastern New England. 
Daytime temperatures this weekend will average up to 20 degrees 
below normal in eastern New England. A period of more widespread 
rain is likely across in eastern MA during Sunday as low pressure 
backs in from the ocean. Unsettled weather may linger into early 
next week, depending on the location of where low pressure sets up. 
A drying trend with moderating temperatures are possible mid to late 
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rather robust mid level shortwave will rotate south across SNE 
today with strong mid level cooling as 500 mb temps fall to -20 
to -22C. This will result in additional showers developing and 
moving south across northern and eastern MA this morning, but 
the risk of a few showers will continue in eastern MA through 
the afternoon. Otherwise, cold pool aloft and low to mid mid 
level moisture will keep lots of clouds across the region today.
Unseasonably cool airmass, especially in the east as 925 mb 
temps fall to 3-4C this afternoon with somewhat milder low level
temps in western New Eng. Highs in eastern New Eng will likely 
be achieved this morning, with temps falling into the lower 50s 
during the afternoon and possibly into the upper 40s by evening.
Some locations in eastern MA this afternoon may be up to 40 
degrees colder than Friday. Milder in the CT valley with highs 
lower 60s.

The chilly temps will be accompanied by gusty NE winds, especially 
along the coast with 25-35 mph gusts which will add to the chill. 
Elsewhere 15-25 mph gusts are expected. 

Given the building seas/rough surf we continued the high surf 
advisory for eastern MA. Obviously a very poor beach day, but 
dangerous conditions for anyone observing the rough surf from 
jetties given large breaking waves onto rocks and other nearshore 
structures. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...

Mid level low moves across eastern New Eng and the adjacent waters. 
Deeper moisture and impulses rotating around the upper low will keep 
the risk of showers across eastern MA tonight, but mostly dry in the 
interior. Lows will be in the 40s regionwide, with gusty N/NE winds 
persisting along the coast. 

Sunday...

Quasi-stationary mid level low will continue to meander across 
eastern New Eng. Low pres and assocd inverted trough over the ocean 
is forecast to rotate westward toward SNE with deep moisture plume 
and trowal moving in from the north and east. The nose of a 
developing 40 kt northerly low level jet will enhance the 
convergence. This will likely result in a period of widespread 
showers backing in from the east and impacting eastern MA. Some 
uncertainty with how far west showers will extend, but it appears at 
least some showers will get further west across portions of MA and 
eastern CT, with best chance of mainly dry weather from CT valley 
westward. 

Another very chilly day across SNE with 925 mb temps possibly 
down to near 2-3C in eastern New Eng. We have highs in the 
lower 50s in central and eastern MA but some of the guidance is 
suggesting temps here may struggle to get to 50 in some 
locations. It is possible temps will challenge record low maxes.
Milder in the CT valley but even here temps may struggle to 
reach 60 if cloud cover dominates. There may be some sun to 
start the day in the CT valley before clouds move in. Another 
surge of gusty northerly winds will develop with the increasing 
low level jet leading to 25-35 mph gusts near the coast and 
15-25 mph further inland. The combination of rain, cold temps 
and wind will make for a nasty day in eastern New Eng. 

High surf advisories will likely be extended into Sunday as high 
seas and rough surf will continue. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some improvement in the agreement among model guidance for late this 
weekend into early next week, but that is not to say the details are 
locked in. The main driver of our forecast will be our location 
relative to a mid level cutoff over the North Atlantic. Expecting 
this cutoff to eventually rotate offshore towards Tuesday, only to 
be replaced by another cutoff rotating into our region from 
southeast Canada. This second cutoff then becomes the dominant 
feature through the end of the next work week.

Precipitation chances will be highest towards the east coast into 
Monday, then transition to a more widespread risk mid week. This is 
not to say every day will be a total washout through this portion of 
the forecast. The greatest daily risk for showers and possible 
thunderstorms will be more towards the late morning into the 
afternoon hours.

Temperature-wise, looking at near to below normal high temperatures 
across southern New England. Trending warmer though the work week.
Near normal low temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12z... 

Widespread MVFR/IFR. Scattered showers redeveloping and moving
south into northern and eastern MA toward daybreak. Increasing
NE winds overnight with gusts to 25 kt developing along the 
coast and 15-20 kt elsewhere. 

Today...Moderate confidence. 

IFR cigs improving to MVFR in the afternoon. Scattered showers,
mainly across eastern MA. NE gusts to 25 kt BOS-PVD corridor 
and up to 30 kt Cape/Islands.

Tonight...Moderate confidence. 

Cigs improving to VFR in the CT valley, but MVFR persisting
across the coastal plain. Scattered showers in eastern MA. NE 
wind gusts 25-30 kt near the coast gradually diminishing 
overnight. 

Sunday...Moderate confidence.

Widespread MVFR cigs with increasing showers across eastern MA,
possibly reaching central MA and RI. Mainly VFR CT valley.
Increasing N winds with 25-30 kt gusts developing along the
coast and up to 20 kt further inland. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR cigs this
morning should improve to MVFR. 

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...

Persistent NE gusts to 25-30 kt expected over the waters through 
Sunday. May even see a few marginal gale force gusts approaching 35 
kt this afternoon and evening. Another surge of wind expected by 
Sunday afternoon with N wind gusts to 30-35 kt. Strongest gusts over 
eastern MA waters where gale warnings may need to be considered in 
future forecast updates. Very rough sea conditions, especially 
eastern MA waters where seas will build up to 10 feet. 

Scattered showers through tonight, then more widespread rain 
expected Sunday, especially eastern waters. 

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers likely.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astro tides this weekend (11+ ft MLLW for Boston) combined with 
strong NE flow may yield minor coastal flooding for the eastern MA 
coastline. The tides of concern are the Saturday night and 
especially Sunday night tides around midnight. 

For the Sat night tide, a surge up to 1 ft is expected along the 
eastern MA coast. This may result in minor splashover. The
Sunday night tide has a higher risk for minor flooding as the
tide is a bit higher, and if the surge reaches 1-1.5 ft as 
forecast, this would result in more areas of minor coastal 
flooding. 

There is also a risk of minor flooding during the Mon night high 
tide. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Max Temps for Sunday June 4th.

BOS...52/1891 
PVD...55/2012 
BDL...59/2018 
ORH...51/2018 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-015-
     016-019-022-024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ230>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...KJC/KP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...