Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 030812 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 412 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably cool and raw weather this weekend with gusty NE winds and periods of showers at times, especially eastern New England. Daytime temperatures this weekend will average up to 20 degrees below normal in eastern New England. A period of more widespread rain is likely across in eastern MA during Sunday as low pressure backs in from the ocean. Unsettled weather may linger into early next week, depending on the location of where low pressure sets up. A drying trend with moderating temperatures are possible mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rather robust mid level shortwave will rotate south across SNE today with strong mid level cooling as 500 mb temps fall to -20 to -22C. This will result in additional showers developing and moving south across northern and eastern MA this morning, but the risk of a few showers will continue in eastern MA through the afternoon. Otherwise, cold pool aloft and low to mid mid level moisture will keep lots of clouds across the region today. Unseasonably cool airmass, especially in the east as 925 mb temps fall to 3-4C this afternoon with somewhat milder low level temps in western New Eng. Highs in eastern New Eng will likely be achieved this morning, with temps falling into the lower 50s during the afternoon and possibly into the upper 40s by evening. Some locations in eastern MA this afternoon may be up to 40 degrees colder than Friday. Milder in the CT valley with highs lower 60s. The chilly temps will be accompanied by gusty NE winds, especially along the coast with 25-35 mph gusts which will add to the chill. Elsewhere 15-25 mph gusts are expected. Given the building seas/rough surf we continued the high surf advisory for eastern MA. Obviously a very poor beach day, but dangerous conditions for anyone observing the rough surf from jetties given large breaking waves onto rocks and other nearshore structures. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Tonight... Mid level low moves across eastern New Eng and the adjacent waters. Deeper moisture and impulses rotating around the upper low will keep the risk of showers across eastern MA tonight, but mostly dry in the interior. Lows will be in the 40s regionwide, with gusty N/NE winds persisting along the coast. Sunday... Quasi-stationary mid level low will continue to meander across eastern New Eng. Low pres and assocd inverted trough over the ocean is forecast to rotate westward toward SNE with deep moisture plume and trowal moving in from the north and east. The nose of a developing 40 kt northerly low level jet will enhance the convergence. This will likely result in a period of widespread showers backing in from the east and impacting eastern MA. Some uncertainty with how far west showers will extend, but it appears at least some showers will get further west across portions of MA and eastern CT, with best chance of mainly dry weather from CT valley westward. Another very chilly day across SNE with 925 mb temps possibly down to near 2-3C in eastern New Eng. We have highs in the lower 50s in central and eastern MA but some of the guidance is suggesting temps here may struggle to get to 50 in some locations. It is possible temps will challenge record low maxes. Milder in the CT valley but even here temps may struggle to reach 60 if cloud cover dominates. There may be some sun to start the day in the CT valley before clouds move in. Another surge of gusty northerly winds will develop with the increasing low level jet leading to 25-35 mph gusts near the coast and 15-25 mph further inland. The combination of rain, cold temps and wind will make for a nasty day in eastern New Eng. High surf advisories will likely be extended into Sunday as high seas and rough surf will continue. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some improvement in the agreement among model guidance for late this weekend into early next week, but that is not to say the details are locked in. The main driver of our forecast will be our location relative to a mid level cutoff over the North Atlantic. Expecting this cutoff to eventually rotate offshore towards Tuesday, only to be replaced by another cutoff rotating into our region from southeast Canada. This second cutoff then becomes the dominant feature through the end of the next work week. Precipitation chances will be highest towards the east coast into Monday, then transition to a more widespread risk mid week. This is not to say every day will be a total washout through this portion of the forecast. The greatest daily risk for showers and possible thunderstorms will be more towards the late morning into the afternoon hours. Temperature-wise, looking at near to below normal high temperatures across southern New England. Trending warmer though the work week. Near normal low temperatures expected. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z... Widespread MVFR/IFR. Scattered showers redeveloping and moving south into northern and eastern MA toward daybreak. Increasing NE winds overnight with gusts to 25 kt developing along the coast and 15-20 kt elsewhere. Today...Moderate confidence. IFR cigs improving to MVFR in the afternoon. Scattered showers, mainly across eastern MA. NE gusts to 25 kt BOS-PVD corridor and up to 30 kt Cape/Islands. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Cigs improving to VFR in the CT valley, but MVFR persisting across the coastal plain. Scattered showers in eastern MA. NE wind gusts 25-30 kt near the coast gradually diminishing overnight. Sunday...Moderate confidence. Widespread MVFR cigs with increasing showers across eastern MA, possibly reaching central MA and RI. Mainly VFR CT valley. Increasing N winds with 25-30 kt gusts developing along the coast and up to 20 kt further inland. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. IFR cigs this morning should improve to MVFR. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday... Persistent NE gusts to 25-30 kt expected over the waters through Sunday. May even see a few marginal gale force gusts approaching 35 kt this afternoon and evening. Another surge of wind expected by Sunday afternoon with N wind gusts to 30-35 kt. Strongest gusts over eastern MA waters where gale warnings may need to be considered in future forecast updates. Very rough sea conditions, especially eastern MA waters where seas will build up to 10 feet. Scattered showers through tonight, then more widespread rain expected Sunday, especially eastern waters. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers likely. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astro tides this weekend (11+ ft MLLW for Boston) combined with strong NE flow may yield minor coastal flooding for the eastern MA coastline. The tides of concern are the Saturday night and especially Sunday night tides around midnight. For the Sat night tide, a surge up to 1 ft is expected along the eastern MA coast. This may result in minor splashover. The Sunday night tide has a higher risk for minor flooding as the tide is a bit higher, and if the surge reaches 1-1.5 ft as forecast, this would result in more areas of minor coastal flooding. There is also a risk of minor flooding during the Mon night high tide. && .CLIMATE... Record Low Max Temps for Sunday June 4th. BOS...52/1891 PVD...55/2012 BDL...59/2018 ORH...51/2018 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-015- 016-019-022-024. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ230>235-237- 250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ236. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/KP NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...KP AVIATION...KJC/KP MARINE...KJC/KP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
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