000 FXUS61 KBOX 111403 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1003 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through late this week with warmer than normal temperatures. Widespread precipitation chances return to the forecast for either Saturday or Sunday, but timing is uncertain at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mostly clear skies along the South Coast, but mostly clouds over the remainder of Southern New England. Additional marine clouds east of Massachusetts. Clouds over land will slowly break, and some spots may go mostly sunny. Will need to monitor the clouds to our east...will they dissipate or move ashore? In general, no changes planned to the forecast. Expect partial clearing through the afternoon. Late morning temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s should continue to warm. Morning soundings support mixing up to between 900-mb and 925-mb. Temps at that level suggest sfc max temps in the upper 60s and low 70s. In addition, a Rip Current Statement continues for the eastern MA coast due to persistent easterly swells. With beaches being unguarded this time of the year, people should exercise caution if going out into the waters. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tonight... With high pressure building in as well as decreasing clouds and winds, it should be a decent night for radiational cooling. Leaned towards the MOS guidance for overnight lows. Expect lows to fall into the mid 40s to low 60s, except for mid 50s in the urban centers and near the coast. Tuesday... High pressure moves overhead with winds turning to the southeast and south. Expect more sun than clouds and with 925mb temperatures +13 to +15C, expect highs in the low to mid 70s. These forecast highs are about 10 degrees warmer than the climatological normals for the second week of October. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights * Above normal temperatures with quiet weather through much of the week. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers across the interior on Wednesday, but the next opportunity for widespread rain showers is this weekend. Tuesday night through Friday... Ridge axis will be situated over New England into Quebec Tuesday night. A trough will lift across the Great Lakes. The ridge will build offshore and into Nova Scotia by late Wednesday, while the deamplifying trough lifts into northern New England/southern Quebec. Another ridge builds in from the Great Lakes on Thursday and over the region on Friday. The trough lifts offshore Wednesday night into early Thursday. High pressure generally in place over the region through this period, though on Wednesday into early Thursday a weak surface trough swings through. High pressure builds back in on Thursday and Friday. Not anticipating any major concerns through this timeframe. High pressure generally in control through the period bringing dry and quiet weather. Above normal temperatures are expected with a gradual upward trend with southerly/westerly flow. Will have 925 hPa temps on Wednesday increasing to 14-17 degrees Celsius. For Thursday/Friday will have W/NW flow keeping 15-18 degree Celsius air overhead at 925 hPa. For all day time highs during this period went with a blend of the NBM 75th percentile and 90th percentile of guidance to bump up highs. High temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s for most days. Not out of the question there could be some upper 70 degree readings late in the week depending on cloud cover. Low temps generally in the 50s, but did lower temperatures for Tuesday night into early Wednesday to the 10th percentile of guidance. Expecting a strong radiational cooling night with clear skies and light winds. Should see lows in the mid to upper 40s in the typical strong radiator spots, elsewhere readings will be in the 50s. Did an isolated shower mention on Wednesday as a surface trough swings through. The risk of a shower is highest across western portions of the CWA. Think that most areas will be dry, but could see an isolated shower or two across parts of the interior. This coincides with a moisture surge of PWATs approaching 1 inch. Uncertain if there will be enough mid level moisture in place. This also still matches up well with the highest probabilities of EPS/GEFS measurable precipitation. Saturday through Sunday... Ridge axis builds offshore and a trough lifts in from the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday or Sunday. A deep low should be situated to the northwest of the region, which will slide a warm and cold front through New England. This far out timing and intensity is uncertain due to model differences, but this brings a shot for more widespread precipitation. Pretty good agreement in a trough lifting into and through the region, but the specific details are uncertain at this time. Due to this have just kept the NBM guidance which keeps slight chance to chances of precipitation. Still looks like above normal temps persist into Saturday, but will depend on how quickly/when the cold front moves through. Think there could potentially be some rumbles of thunder given K index values increasing to around 30 and a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, but have held off from including a thunder mention in the latest forecast. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This afternoon...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. Clouds lingered over most of Srn New England. Most ceilings mid morning ranged from 500 feet to 1500 feet. Patchy fog was still around, most of it near Worcester Airport. Expect a gradual improvement through the afternoon, but it will take some time. Ceilings will lift to VFR this afternoon, with clearing in some spots. Winds generally out of the NE/ENE at 5-10 kts. Gusts of 20-25 kts along and south of the south coast. Tonight...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. VFR for most especially earlier in the evening. May see some LIFR to MVFR fog developing. Have hinted at for the majority of terminals with low cloud bases and some visby reduction. Winds light and variable and generally less than 5 kts. Tuesday...High confidence. Any patchy fog burns off quickly and conditions improve to VFR. Light winds out of the southeast/south generally less than 5 kts. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the outer waters and the RI coastal waters for gusts up to 25 knots and seas over 5 foot. Winds will diminish and become variable tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds fair weather over the waters. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Statement continues for this afternoon's high tide cycle across eastern MA coast. Any impacts will be restricted to very marginal and localized splashovers. Nonetheless, given that it is a public holiday and the continued nice stretch of weather, decided to hoist a statement for awareness purposes. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007- 019-022>024. RI...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BL/Chai NEAR TERM...BL/Chai SHORT TERM...WTB/Chai LONG TERM...BL AVIATION...WTB/BL/Chai MARINE...WTB/BL/Chai TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...