Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

53°F
10/17/2021 8:51pm 
  • Lexington Conditions: Clear
  • Temperature: 53.1°F / 11.7°CColder 1.0°F than last hour.
  • Dew Point: 47.7°FDecreased 0.3°Fsince last hour.
  • Relative Humidity: 82%Increased 2.0% since last hour.
  • Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 3 mph
  • Barometer: 29.67 inRising 0.02  inHg/hr Rising Slowly
  • Visibility: 10 miles
  • Rain Today: 0.35 in
  •   

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 110548
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
148 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Southern New England is sandwich between an area of high and low 
pressure this holiday weekend. Chance for showers across south coast 
while drier to the north. A low probability of a shower or two on 
Monday accompanied by mild temperatures approaching 70F. High
pressure returns and dominates much of the week ahead with dry
and mild conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM update...

Moderate to heavy rain continues to remain mainly offshore
early this morning. The exception is Nantucket, as well as areas
along the immediate south coast. But even then, the more
consistent moderate rain earlier has tapered off to scattered
light showers. Overall, forecast remains largely on track. 
Expect the high to our north to continue suppressing the bulk of
the rain overnight.

Previous Discussion...

A coastal low pressure system sitting off the coast of Delaware
continues its journey towards the northeast. But a strong area 
of high pressure over Nova Scotia, at 1030mb, continues to 
suppress the system to the south. Between these to areas of 
pressure is a tight pressure gradient across the south coast 
which will enhance wind gusts through tonight. Wind is east to 
northeast at 5 to 15 knots and gust 20 to 25 knots. The stronger
winds will be felt on the Islands, and south coast of RI and 
MA. 

Good news, the bulk of the rain should remain off shore and any 
appreciable rain will be found along the immediate south coast, Cape 
Cod, and the Islands. Generally rain totals are a few hundredths of 
an inch along the I-95 corridor to a quarter of an inch for the 
Islands. Areas of patchy fog/low stratus is likely across central 
and western Massachusetts overnight and into early Monday morning. 

Temperatures are mild once again as lows hold steady in the mid-50s 
to low-60s overnight. For example, Boston's normal low is 50F and 
it's forecast to reach 59F. Much of the area will feel similar 
overnight "warmth". The coolest spots are the eastern slopes of the 
Berkshires with lows around 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The coastal low will begin to decay as mid-level heights increase 
starting on Monday morning. What remains of this area of low 
pressure will slide off to the east while high pressure moves in 
from the northeast. Best chance for a shower during the morning will 
be areas south and east of Boston. But, given the easterly flow and 
lingering moisture, we can't rule out a low probability of a light 
shower Monday afternoon across the metro area of Boston. This 
wouldn't be a washout by any means. Just expect plenty of cloud cover 
throughout much of Monday with gradual clearing during the afternoon 
hours. 

Dew points and temperatures will be more noticeable too. 
Temperatures aloft are in the neighborhood of +13C to +14C at 925mb 
which should translate to afternoon highs in the upper 60s to 70F. 

Monday evening into Monday night. Drier air aloft will begin to 
filter into the low and mid levels, this will lead to partial 
clearing. Lows early Tuesday morning are in the upper 40s to middle-
50s which is still about 5 degrees above the normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights

* Dry and quiet weather for much of the upcoming week with above 
  normal temperatures. 

* Isolated showers possible across portions of the interior on 
  Wednesday. Next opportunity for more rain comes next weekend. 

Details...

Tuesday through Friday...

High pressure ridging will dominate for most of the upcoming work 
week. Early on we'll have a surface high centered over southern New 
England on Tuesday with the mid level ridge axis directly overhead. 
This keeps weather quiet with a fairly dry column (PWATs <1") 
allowing for a good amount of sun and light winds. Low level flow 
will slowly begin veering to the southeast then the south through 
the day, moderating the airmass and warming temperatures a bit 
compared to Monday, in the mid 70s. 

Wednesday flow becomes southwest pushing temperatures even higher 
above normal, into the mid to upper 70s. For perspective, the normal 
high for this time of year would be in the low to mid 60s. Trends 
have been drier for Wednesday as a weak shortwave and series of 
fronts moves through. Moisture is limited and forcing is weak, so 
most will stay dry. Any rain should be light and isolated in nature. 
For the latter half of the week high pressure ridging returns 
keeping things dry and temperatures holding steady in the mid to 
upper 70s. 

Saturday and Sunday...

The pattern looks to break down around next weekend as our next 
shortwave approaches from the west. While rain chances are higher 
for the weekend than the workweek, confidence remains low in any 
location or timing details at this distance in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

0540Z update...

Rest of tonight...Moderate confidence.

A mix of low VFR to MVFR conditions across most terminals,
except for LIFR at ORH. Scattered light showers possible for
terminals near and along the immediate south MA/RI coast. Patchy
fog could also develop during the pre-dawn hours, but should
dissipate shortly after daybreak. Easterly winds shifting to 
the northeast at 5-10 knots. Gusts of 20-25 knots along and 
south of the south coast.

Monday...High confidence in trends, but moderate in timing.

MVFR/IFR conditions early morning will gradually improver to VFR
by mid to late morning. MVFR could linger into the mid to late 
afternoon across the interior high terrain and Cape terminals. 
Winds are northeast 5 to 15 knots with occasional gust to 20 
knots along the south coast.


KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: VFR. 

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.

Wednesday: VFR. 

Wednesday Night through Friday:

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect overnight for the southern 
and southeastern coastal waters for gusts up to 25 knots and seas 
over 5 foot. SCA are expected to extend to the northeastern waters 
Monday morning. A coastal low pressure system will weaken as it 
moves northeast off of the Mid-Atlantic states and will bring 
periods of rain.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. 

Wednesday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT 
     Tuesday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/Gaucher
NEAR TERM...Chai/Gaucher
SHORT TERM...Gaucher 
LONG TERM...BW 
AVIATION...Chai/Gaucher 
MARINE...BW/Gaucher
      

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