Point Forecast Updated 10:08 am EST Feb 24, 2018
Hi 56 °F
Cloudy, with a high near 56. Northwest wind around 6 mph.
Mostly Cloudy then Chance Snow/Sleet
Lo 33 °F
A chance of snow and sleet, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Hi 38 °F
Rain and sleet, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all rain after 1pm. High near 38. East wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Chance Rain then Mostly Cloudy
Lo 34 °F
A chance of rain, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Hi 51 °F
Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. West wind 5 to 7 mph.
Lo 31 °F
Clear, with a low around 31.
Hi 49 °F
Sunny, with a high near 49.
Lo 33 °F
Mostly clear, with a low around 33.
Hi 53 °F
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.
645 FXUS61 KBOX 241735 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1235 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably mild today with a period of showers possible south of the Mass Pike late today and early this evening. A frontal system will bring more precipitation late tonight and Sunday with rain mixed with sleet at times in the coastal plain and snow sleet and freezing changing to rain in the interior. Near- seasonable, quiet and dry for the first half of next week, attention turns towards late week and an anticipated stormy pattern. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 am update... Very pleasant Feb conditions this morning. Temps already running in the upper 40s and low 50s with plenty of sunshine out of terrain-waves near the Berkshires and lingering stratus across MVY/ACK, which should be clearing in the next hour or so. Increased highs a bit as a result as timing of the clouds associated with a weak leading wave moves in this afternoon being slower than previously forecast. Many locations make the 50s, or even upper 50s. Otherwise, narrow corridor of SHRA later this afternoon and evening, mainly S of the Mass Pike. Not too much with this initial round as the moisture in the column remains somewhat low until tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... *** Mixed precipitation event for interior late tonight and Sunday with some snow and ice accumulations *** A few showers likely impacting south coast early evening, otherwise dry weather through midnight before main area of overrunning precip ahead of the warm front begins to overspread the region from the SW to NE late tonight into Sunday. Ptype will be biggest challenge with this event. Initially, the column is warm but all the guidance is indicating a good cold air damming signature developing overnight into Sunday as high pres builds over the Maritimes. In fact, notable cooling in the 925-950 mb layer 06-15z with temps dropping to -2 to -4C before warmer air moves in from the south. Warming temps above this layer will set up a sleet and freezing rain scenario in the interior where low level cold air will be difficult to dislodge given warm front remaining to the south and a sfc wave tracking along the boundary to lock in the cold air near the surface. Some snow is also likely late tonight and early Sunday, north of the Pike and especially near NH border where cold air just deep enough as precip moves in. In the coastal plain, mainly rain is expected, but given cold air below 850 mb, some sleet will likely mix in with the rain late tonight and Sunday morning even along the south coast. Expect 1-3 inches snow/sleet accum in the interior north of the Mass Pike with highest amounts near NH border. If warmer air aloft is delayed a few hours it is possible a few locations could approach 4-5 inches but this is a low probability. We are concerned with several hours of freezing rain and icy conditions across portions of the interior during Sunday, especially over the Berkshires, Worcester hills and portions of the CT valley. Ice accretion up to one tenth of an inch is possible with up to 0.25" over the Berkshires. Expect temps to gradually rise above freezing Sun afternoon in the interior as precip intensity diminishes. Winter weather advisories will be issued for all of central and western MA and northern CT. Some freezing rain is possible in NW RI and interior NE MA but confidence not yet high enough for an advisory in this area. Across NE MA may be dealing with more of a snow/sleet to rain scenario. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... */ Highlights... - Quiet, dry, near-seasonable early week period - Stormy pattern emerging late week for the beginning of March */ Overview... Blocky N Atlantic pattern, associated +3 standard deviation H5 high retrograding W into SE Canada, parent 1040+ surface high, pressing the thermal wind axis S through which N/S stream impulses merge, dug through a prevailing W CONUS H5 trof before ejecting and stretching E. Energy piling up, cutting off for a time given the block, an area of favorable storm development emerges off the SE Canadian coast, evolving S/W towards the NE CONUS per retrograding high, E ejecting energy. Airmass juxtaposition key as to outcomes towards the end of the week after a quiet start. Only confidence is persistence of NE winds of significant duration during high astro-tides, concern with respect to coastal flooding. Lower confidence otherwise, consensus forecast guidance heavily weighted with ensemble means. Hit targets of opportunity below. */ Discussion... Thursday into the weekend... While considerable ensemble member / deterministic guidance spread there's cohesive signal of a Great Lakes warm occlusion transferring energy offshore beneath a more favorable region of storm development evolving towards the NE CONUS. Occluded front transitioning to an inverted trof, energy pinwheeling round a closed, stacking low well offshore. Questions surround frontal boundary magnitude buffeting the pressing N high, how far N/E outcomes slide into New England. NCEP noting poor run-to-run continuity with ejecting waves, EC, even the 24.0z, worse than GFS which appears to be locking in. Warm core low, absent Arctic air, anticipate precip-type issues, rain / snow, lean to occluded front / inverted trof hanging up into the NE CONUS as energy transfers, low rolls up offshore. Only confidence is the persistence of NE winds during high astro-tides, concern of coastal flooding. Only chance PoPs given spread. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday/... Through 06Z tonight...High confidence. Mainly VFR, although brief MVFR vsbys are possible in -SHRA at terminals S of the Mass Pike late this afternoon/evening. Winds NW will shift around to the E-NE late this evening. After 06Z through Sunday...Moderate confidence. Precipitation shield begins to build SW-NE mainly between 08Z and 12Z. Initially, mix of SN/PL possible, with gradual transition to PL/FZRA after 10Z though 16Z from S-N, with all RA expected eventually outside of the highest terrain. Timing may be off a a bit in TAF, and this will be refined through the overnight updates. Mainly IFR/LIFR as the precipitation gets going, both due to low CIGS and vsbys. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence, mainly due timing uncertainty. VFR into early AM, then gradual reduction to IFR as precipitation moves over the terminal. Will likely see some PL mixing in with the RA for the first 2-4 hrs before a change to just rain until the precipitation ends by late Sun afternoon. Wind gusts during the afternoon tomorrow 20-25 kt out of the E. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence, mainly due timing uncertainty. Precip may start early Sun AM as mix of SN/PL then transition to period of PL/FZRA before becoming all RA. Timing of this in TAF may change. Mainly IFR once precipitation begins. If Winds remain predominantly N, PL/FZRA lingers longer. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...Moderate confidence. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday/...Moderate confidence. Today...Diminishing winds becoming northerly late today. Seas below SCA. Tonight and Sunday...Increasing easterly winds late tonight and especially Sunday as low level jet moves across the waters. Given cold air above the boundary layer, mixing will likely be sufficient for a period of gale force gusts, especially over the south coastal waters during Sun. Otherwise, expect SCA conditions with gusts to 25-30 kt. Gale watches issued where highest confidence of gales. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain. Visibility 1 nm or less. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for CTZ002>004. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MAZ002>004-008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM EST Sunday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ236. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250- 251. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell NEAR TERM...Doody SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Sipprell AVIATION...Doody/Sipprell MARINE...KJC/Sipprell