Point Forecast Updated Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:31am EDT
A late season snowstorm will continue today across the higher terrain of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills; while rain and snow along with some minor accumulations are possible in some lower elevations. A few showers may linger on Saturday, but mainly dry weather is expected Saturday night through Monday. Turning mild and dry for Tuesday before a cold front brings our next chance for more widespread rain around Wednesday.
Rain And Snow
Hi 38 °F
Rain before 8am, then rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Rain And Snow Likely then Snow Showers
Lo 35 °F
Rain and snow likely before 8pm, then rain showers likely between 8pm and 10pm, then snow showers between 10pm and 3am, then rain showers likely between 3am and 4am, then snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Chance Snow Showers then Slight Chance Rain Showers
Hi 47 °F
A chance of snow showers before 8am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 8am and 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 47. North wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Lo 38 °F
A slight chance of rain showers between 11pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Hi 55 °F
Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Northwest wind 2 to 7 mph.
Lo 40 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. West wind around 6 mph.
Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers
Hi 62 °F
A slight chance of rain showers between 1pm and 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. West wind around 7 mph.
Lo 42 °F
Mostly clear, with a low around 42. West wind around 6 mph.
Hi 68 °F
Sunny, with a high near 68. Southwest wind 6 to 13 mph.
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Lo 49 °F
A slight chance of rain showers after 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Chance Rain Showers
Hi 61 °F
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Southwest wind 7 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
Lo 37 °F
A slight chance of rain showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind around 10 mph.
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Hi 55 °F
A slight chance of rain showers between 7am and 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind 9 to 14 mph.
Lo 38 °F
Mostly clear, with a low around 38. West wind 8 to 12 mph.
Updated Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:30am EDT
000 FXUS61 KBOX 161102 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 702 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A late season snowstorm will continue today across the higher terrain of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills; while rain and snow along with some minor accumulations are possible in some lower elevations. A few showers may linger on Saturday, but mainly dry weather is expected Saturday night through Monday. Turning mild and dry for Tuesday before a cold front brings our next chance for more widespread rain around Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 7 am update... Heavy rain and high elevation heavy, wet snow continue this morning. Regional radar shows the swath of heaviest precipitation over eastern MA and RI at 7 am rotating cyclonically around the low centered just off Nantucket, but this will lift north through the morning as the dry slot invades from the south. This means a quicker respite from the rain for far eastern MA than central/western region. Previous discussion... Highlights... * Significant Snowstorm Continues in the high terrain of the Berks/Worcester Hills today & some power outages are possible * A small slushy accumulation possible in some lower elevations Details... A classic setup continues today for a mid April snowstorm across the high terrain of southern New England. It is quite difficult to get significant snowfall this time of year unless you have a very dynamical system, which is exactly what we have in this case. However, this will continue to be a difficult forecast as thermal profiles are very marginal. This means that a subtle shift in track, precipitation intensity will make a huge difference in heavy wet snow versus plain rain. We will break things down a bit more below. The latest guidance has quite the dynamic situation especially this morning. Intensifying closed 700 mb low moving across southern New England coupled with deep moisture plume supports heavy precipitation and banding. We think the heaviest precipitation will be roughly from 6 am through 2 pm in response to those intensifying mid level centers. Precipitation will continue though after that time. Still uncertainty involving where the strongest banding sets up and how far northwest the mid level dry slot penetrates. Given extremely marginal thermal profiles and the fact that it is the middle of April, a subtle change will make a huge difference between rain and heavy wet snow. We still think the main area of snow accumulations will be above 400-500 feet with significant accumulations expected near and above 1000 feet. Greatest concern remains in the Worcester Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires; where 6+ inches of 32-33 wet snow will result in the potential for some power outages. Localized 9-10 inch amounts are possible in the highest of these elevations. In areas below 400-500 feet, odds favor this being mainly a rain event with some wet snow flakes mixed in at times. However, it is possible that precipitation comes down heavy enough for a time this morning to result in a quick inch or two of slush. This would mainly be west of the I-495/128 belt. East of that region and into the Boston to Providence corridor, the surface low and mid level dryslot appear to track too far inland. So in this region, just expect rain with perhaps a few mangled snowflakes during times of heavier precipitation. So in a nutshell...we expect the bulk of the heavy snow and perhaps some power outages to be in the Worcester Hills and the Berks. We will continue Winter Storm Warnings for this region; where some power outages will be possible. Snow accumulations are also possible in the northeast CT Hills and high terrain of northwest RI, mainly this morning. Across some of the lower elevations of the interior; minor slushy accumulations are possible but precipitation type maybe more in the form of rain outside heavier intensity. Lastly, we did hoist a Wind Advisory for coastal essex County. This is where the nose of an easterly 925 mb jet, where a period of 40 to 50 mph gusts are expected later this morning and afternoon. Across the rest of our coastline, expect wind gusts on the order of 30-40 mph. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... Tonight... Vertically stacked only low slowly move off the coast & will allow rain and snow showers to continue tonight; particularly across our eastern zones. However, the intensity will not be nearly as strong as what we are expecting today. This coupled with temperatures mainly above freezing will make for any additional minor snow accumulations limited to the very highest terrain of the Berks/Worcester Hills. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Saturday and Sunday... The weekend features periods of clouds and sun with some hit and miss showers, though not a washout at all. The low to our east very slowly moves away thanks to the blocking pattern in the mid levels, and the column doesn't truly dry out until around Tuesday. In the mean time, flow remains rather zonal to slightly cyclonic with a meager cold pool aloft, helping to keep clouds and periodic rain chances around. Still, lacking any large scale forcing for ascent, most places will be dry at any given time. Temperatures moderate a bit each day as warm advection from the west begins. Highs will be in the upper 40s Saturday except for the Connecticut River Valley which reaches the low 50s. Warmer still on Sunday on milder northwest flow, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Monday and Tuesday... Largely dry and warmer on Monday, but a weak shortwave swings through the flow bringing the chance for scattered showers during the day. The better moisture and forcing remains far to our south, so not expecting a washout by any means. Notably, warm advection leads to highs back in the 50s on Monday and 60s on Tuesday! Tuesday's warmer than average temperatures will be the result not only of a warmer airmass (850 mb temps +5C) but full sunshine under clear skies. This is thanks to a brief ridge of high pressure. With the warm temps, more moisture surges north. Dewpoints rise back into the upper 40s to near 50, so we may deal with some fog along the south coast overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Wednesday and Thursday... Unsettled weather returns by mid week thanks to an incoming shortwave trough and surface cold front. Too soon to for details like timing and placement of the heaviest rain, but more widespread precipitation appears likely around Wednesday or Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z Update... Today...Moderate Confidence. IFR to LIFR conditions dominate today in widespread rain and snow; which will be heavy at times especially this morning. Ptype will mainly be snow across interior southern New England above 500 feet in elevation; at least when the precipitation is coming down heavy. Below 500 feet towards the Boston to Providence corridor; Ptype will mainly be rain but a few wet snowflakes may mix in when the precipitation is heaviest. E wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots along early today, but across the Cape/Islands they will shift to the SW for a time later today. Tonight...Moderate Confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions persist. Rain and snow showers will linger tonight; particularly across the eastern half of the region. NE winds shifting to the NW at 10 to 15 knots with some gusts near 25 knots possible on the coast. KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Today...High Confidence. Intensifying low pressure will result in strong SCA wind gusts across western waters. However, strong Easterly low level jet will result in 30 to 40 knot wind gusts across our eastern waters and perhaps brief gusts up to 45 knots in our far northern waters. Meanwhile, should see the winds shift to the southwest temporarily across our southern waters this afternoon as the surface low moves temporarily inland across southeast MA. Seas will build to between 8 and 15 feet with the highest of those waves across our northeast outer- waters. Tonight...High Confidence. Winds shift to the northwest with gusts of 25 to 35 knots as the low pressure system slowly shifts offshore. Seas will still be in the 5 to 10 foot range across our outer-waters. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ007. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ002- 004-008-026. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003- 009-010. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231-232-250- 251-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ233>237-256. Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/BW NEAR TERM...Frank/BW SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...Frank/BW MARINE...Frank/BW
Zone forecast: https://api.weather.gov/zones/forecast/MAZ014/forecast
Hourly forecast: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/64,79/forecast/hourly
Hourly detail: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/64,79
Point detail: https://api.weather.gov/points/42.4399,-71.2405