Point Forecast Updated Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:04am EST
High pressure brings an arctic airmass into the region today and tonight. Not quite as cold Thursday afternoon along with less wind, but nonetheless remaining colder than normal. Then all eyes turn to a powerful coastal storm Friday night into Saturday night, which will likely impact at least a portion of the region with heavy snow, strong winds, coastal flooding and dangerous seas. However, still some uncertainty on the exact storm track and intensity, which will have a direct impact on snow amounts and other storm details. Drier weather returns with below normal temperatures Sunday.
Hi 21 °F
Sunny, with a high near 21. Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Lo -2 °F
Clear, with a low around -2. Wind chill values as low as -8. Northwest wind 3 to 9 mph.
Hi 24 °F
Sunny, with a high near 24. West wind 2 to 7 mph.
Lo 20 °F
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Southwest wind around 7 mph.
Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Snow
Hi 34 °F
A slight chance of snow after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind 2 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Light Snow Likely
Lo 18 °F
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. North wind 2 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Light Snow Likely
Hi 24 °F
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. North wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Light Snow Likely
Lo 12 °F
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Slight Chance Light Snow then Mostly Sunny
Hi 25 °F
A slight chance of snow before 9am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 25. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Lo 7 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. West wind around 7 mph.
Hi 30 °F
Sunny, with a high near 30. West wind around 6 mph.
Lo 12 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. Southwest wind around 3 mph.
Hi 36 °F
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Lo 21 °F
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Southwest wind around 2 mph.
Updated Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:35am EST
000 FXUS61 KBOX 260943 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 443 AM EST Wed Jan 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings an arctic airmass into the region today and tonight. Not quite as cold Thursday afternoon along with less wind, but nonetheless remaining colder than normal. Then all eyes turn to a powerful coastal storm Friday night into Saturday night, which will likely impact at least a portion of the region with heavy snow, strong winds, coastal flooding and dangerous seas. However, still some uncertainty on the exact storm track and intensity, which will have a direct impact on snow amounts and other storm details. Drier weather returns with below normal temperatures Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 330 AM update... Today... Arctic airmass slowly overspreads the region, on cold NNW drainage flow with 925 mb temps lowering to about -14C to -16C by days end. This strong low level cold air advection will preclude much if any temp rise from temps early this morning. Given this and shallow nature of the cold airmass, leaned toward the colder guidance sources to derive high temps today. This only yields highs in the low to mid 20s, upper teens for much of western-central MA. It will feel even colder in response to NNW winds 10 to 20 mph, highest winds over Cape Cod and the Islands. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... 330 AM update... Tonight... Arctic 1030+ mb high builds into the region, yielding a cold night ahead with lows mainly ranging from -5 to +5 across much of the region. NNW winds will trend more northerly and diminish. Thus, not much of a wind chill overnight, nevertheless, very cold overnight. Given diminishing winds, mostly clear conditions and a very dry airmass, derived lows tonight from the colder MOS guidance. Before winds diminish, NNW winds trending northerly, very cold air on this trajectory over the relatively warm SSTs, will yield OES across the outer Cape and possibly into coastal Plymouth county. The NSSL WRF and ARW are most aggressive with OES, and offer a coating up to an inch possible in spots across the outer Cape and coastal Plymouth county. This seems reasonable given 340 wind direction, delta-T of 24 degs from top of the mixed layer (-18C) to SSTs of +6C, and very little directional shear in the boundary layer. Otherwise, dry weather prevails. Thursday... A very cold start to the day, but slight improvement as ridge axis aloft moves east of the region along with surface high sliding offshore, offering weak return warm advection flow to setup. Temps only a few degs higher than today, but light SSW winds and plenty of sunshine will help offset the colder than normal temps. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 330 AM update... Highlights... * Light scattered snow showers possible on Friday with limited accumulation. * A significant winter storm is becoming more likely for Saturday with snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding all on the table. Details will come more into focus over the next 24 to 36 hours. * Quiet weather to follow through early next week. Details... Thursday night and Friday... Thursday night high pressure shifts east of southern New England as a trough of low pressure traverses the Great Lakes and northern New England. Southernly flow ahead of the approaching cold front will bring increasing clouds through the overnight hours. By Friday these southwest winds continue, bringing temperatures several degrees warmer than on Thursday, into the mid to upper 30s. Expect a cloudy, mostly dry day but we'll see scattered snow showers thanks to the cold front and a favorably positioned 300 mb jet overhead; not expecting more than a dusting to several tenths from any of these showers. Friday night and Saturday... 1/26 00Z guidance continues to boost confidence that we're in store for a high impact winter storm in southern New England on Saturday. The ECMWF guidance is holding steady and all global guidance in agreement that some locations will experience a significant snowfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding. For those that have been following along, I know you've heard it repeated to death, but the key message continues to be the same: guidance is trending favorably for a big storm, but the exact track remains uncertain. This track is what will tell us exactly where the greatest snow, wind, and coastal flooding concerns are. The origin of this storm is a broad 500 mb trough that digs into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday night into Saturday. Two shortwaves within the broader flow, one northern and one southern stream may phase with each other as they move east. The ECMWF continues to favor a phasing solution leading to a stronger mid level low which cuts off more quickly compared to the GFS which keeps these features more removed and leads to a low that deepens more slowly. Either way, there is a great deal of confidence that this trough will generate a surface low off the Carolina coast that will rapidly intensify as it moves up to New England. Guidance indicates potential for this storm to undergo bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops at least 24 mb in 24 hours. This creates a very tight pressure gradient, meaning strong, potentially damaging winds will accompany the snow. Bufkit soundings indicate potential for gusts to as much as 70 mph for the Cape and islands during the peak on Saturday. However, again the placement of heaviest winds, whether or not we deal with a rain/snow line, and extent of coastal flooding will be more clear as we approach and get a grasp of the track. Current ensemble guidance indicates a majority of the low centers passing in the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark. If this comes to pass we'll be dealing with heavy snow over southeast MA, strong winds, and potential for white out conditions. 00Z EPS percentage possibility of a foot or more of snow continues to place a 60-70% bullseye over southeast Massachusetts. Finally, coastal flooding is a concern thanks to astronomically high tides on Saturday. The combination of strong northeast winds and high seas will bring storm surges that, if coinciding with high tide, would lead to minor or moderate coastal flooding. A difference in storm timing of as little as 6 hours would have a large impact on coastal flooding and erosion concerns. Stay tuned. Sunday through Tuesday... By Sunday morning the low center will be north of Nova Scotia and lifting quickly away from New England. It is eventually replaced by high pressure later Sunday through Tuesday. During the transition on Sunday we'll continue to see gusty winds until the pressure gradient eventually slackens and winds become calm Sunday night through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z update... Today...High confidence VFR, dry weather and NW winds 10-20 kt, highest winds over Cape Cod and the islands. Given this wind trajectory, ocean effect snow showers likely remain just offshore of Cape Cod. Tonight...High confidence. VFR, dry weather with NNW winds at 5-15 kts. Gusts up to 20 kts across the Cape/Islands. This more northerly wind trajectory likely results in ocean effect snow showers and MVFR conditions coming onshore to Cape Cod and possibly coastal Plymouth county. A coating to an inch is possible. Thursday...High confidence. VFR, dry light and variable winds becoming SSW. Across the outer Cape, MVFR cigs and vsbys possible in morning ocean effect snow showers. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt. SN likely. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SN. Sunday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 330 AM update... Today...arctic high pressure approaches from the west, yielding NNW 10-20 kt winds across MA and RI waters, along with light freezing spray. Tonight...arctic high continues building east into New England. More of a northerly wind 10-20 kt produces ocean effect snow showers over the eastern MA waters, along with light freezing spray. Thursday...high pressure moves offshore with light and variable winds becoming SSW wind and light, generally 15 kt or less. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Local rough seas. Snow likely, rain. Saturday: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 20 ft. Snow, rain. Saturday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 20 ft. Snow likely, chance of freezing spray. Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/BW NEAR TERM...Nocera SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...Nocera/BW MARINE...Nocera/BW
Zone forecast: https://api.weather.gov/zones/forecast/MAZ014/forecast
Hourly forecast: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/64,79/forecast/hourly
Hourly detail: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/64,79
Point detail: https://api.weather.gov/points/42.4399,-71.2405