Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

43°F

11/14/2025 4:08pm

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 43.2°F / 6.2°C
Dew Point: 28.0°F
Relative Humidity: 55%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.86 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 141934
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
234 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region later tonight into 
Saturday with less wind and cool conditions. A frontal system 
will bring mainly rain Saturday night, then drying out and 
becoming windy Sunday. Blustery and cool weather prevails early 
next week, then diminishing wind and continued dry weather into 
midweek as high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Point

*Cold but less windy overnight. Wind chill values in the low 20s.

One last round of weak shortwave energy moves through the region 
this evening before the stalled upper-level trough and cold pool 
move well offshore. Not anticipating anything other than increased 
cloud cover this afternoon and evening, as dry low-level air will 
make it difficult for any rain to reach the ground. Clouds begin to 
decrease tonight, leaving skies clear by midnight. With decreasing 
wind overnight, expecting good radiational cooling tonight, with 
lows dropping into the low 20s to even the upper teens in the higher 
terrain of northwest Massachusetts. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Key Points

*Continued cool and dry weather Saturday
*Rain moves into the region from west to east Saturday evening

Weak upper-level ridge pushes the cold pool away from the region for 
Saturday, but the cold start will keep highs from exceeding 50F for 
much of the region. A warm front enters the region on Saturday 
afternoon, but rain from this front wont arrive until Saturday 
evening, as mid-level dry air will take time to erode. Thus, only 
expecting increasing clouds during the day. 

Better forcing and moisture arrive Saturday evening, allowing rain 
to begin falling from West to east, with widespread steady rain 
across the region before midnight. Previous high-resolution guidance 
runs had some residual cold air in place as the rain arrived, 
resulting in some mixed P-types; however, guidance has since backed 
off on this, as wet bulb temperatures will be above freezing when 
the rain arrives. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good 
agreement, with QPF totals ranging from 0.25 to 0.5 inches, with 
pockets of up to 0.75 inches possible. Overnight lows remain a bit 
milder compared to the previous night, only bottoming out in the low 
to mid-30s with the warm air advection. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Key Messages: 

* Rain ending early Sunday morning, low chance for showers into the 
  afternoon, otherwise dry and windy through Monday. 

* Mainly dry conditions along with below normal temperatures Tuesday 
  into Thursday.

* Return of seasonable temperature and unsettled conditions Friday. 
  
The system that brings rain Saturday night into Sunday morning is 
moving northeast with the low pressure system strengthening as the 
center heads towards the Canadian Maritimes. Post frontal dry and 
cold air advects in from the northwest along with gusty conditions 
due to the strengthening pressure gradient as high pressure builds 
to the southwest of New England. Widespread rain ends early as PWATs 
fall to less than 0.3", cannot rule out spot rain and/or flurry from 
a passage of a robust shortwave Sunday afternoon.

What is more notable during the Sunday and Monday timeframe are the 
expected gusty conditions. Cooling temperatures aloft on Sunday aids 
with steep 1000mb-850mb lapse rates of 8-10C/km, resulting in a well 
mixed boundary layer. Assumptions are 80 percent of the momentum can 
transfer from 850mb to the ground, lending to gusts of 30 and 40 mph 
from the west-northwest. It is reasonably possible areas across the 
high terrain of northwestern Massachusetts could gust over 50 mph. A 
quick look at DESI utilizing HREF show probabilities of 20 to 40 
percent of these gusts for the east slopes of the Berkshires. And 
slightly lower chances for Cape Cod and islands with probabilites 
between 10 and 30 percent. Something to monitor as these gusts near 
the threshold for a wind advisory. For mariners, Gale Watch has been 
issued for all waters beginning late Sunday morning through Monday 
evening for west-northwest gusts 30 to 40 knots. 

Fairly quiet Tuesday into Thursday as the mid-level low moves from 
northern New England towards the Labrador Sea. Northwest flow regime 
remains, shortwaves races through the region through Wednesday night 
leading to a daily chance for hit-or-miss sprinkles and/or flurries. 
Late week, Thursday into Friday becomes unsettled with the next 
opportunity for widespread precipitation. Temperature-wise, will 
have below normal daytime highs and overnight lows through Thursday, 
with near normal conditions by the end of the week. 


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z Update...

Rest of Today through Saturday...High confidence.

VFR through the period. Sct-bkn diurnal strato-cu 5-7k ft 
developing this afternoon, then clearing tonight but ocean 
effect clouds lingering over the outer Cape. NW wind gusts to 
20 kt today, NW 5-10 kt tonight becoming W-SW 5-10 kt Sat 
afternoon. 

Saturday Night...Moderate Confidence

Gradually lowering CIGS as Rain ahead of our next system begins
to approach the region. General consensus for rain timing seems
to be arriving from west to east between 00z - 04z. Rain could
be moderate at times and bring CIGS down to IFR level, but not
confidence in CIGS becoming LIFR with SW winds. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty NW winds this afternoon gradually diminish this 
evening

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty NW winds this afternoon become light tonight. 

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... 

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. 

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Wednesday: VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY

Tranquil boating conditions are anticipated tonight into tomorrow as 
high pressure brings light westerly winds and rain-free weather. 
Seas decrease to 1-3 feet through Saturday. A warm front will bring 
rain to the waters on Saturday night, before a cold front clears the 
rain out and brings strong, gale-force winds on Sunday and Monday. 
Seas on Sunday and Monday could approach 8-12 feet.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... 

Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. 

Sunday Night: gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt.
Rough seas up to 14 ft. 

Monday: gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up
to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of
rough seas. 

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for 
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Dooley/KP
MARINE...Dooley/KP