Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

24°F
3/3/2021 3:48am 
  • Lexington Conditions: Overcast
  • Temperature: 24.1°F / -4.4°CWarmer 1.3°F than last hour.
  • Dew Point: 10.6°FIncreased 0.4°Fsince last hour.
  • Relative Humidity: 56%Decreased 2.0% since last hour.
  • Wind: Wind from WSW WSW Calm, 10-min avg: 2 mph, gust: 8 mph
  • Barometer: 29.85 inFalling 0.02  inHg/hr Falling Slowly
  • Visibility: 10 miles
  • Snow Today: 0.0 in
  •   

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 030749
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
249 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through early next week. Temperatures
moderate today, then chill again Thursday and the weekend. A 
significant moderation in temperatures is anticipated early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

Warm front lifts north and east of the region this morning.
Mid-level clouds will move off with the front, bringing sunshine
for the day. Mixing is expected to reach to 900-mb, with
temperatures at that level supporting surface max temps in the
40s, possibly around 50 in spots. Winds in the mixed layer will
support westerly gusts around 15-20 kt/20 to 25 mph. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

Tonight...

Cold front sweeps south across Srn New England. There will be a
shortwave aloft, but little jet forcing to cause lift. The 
airmass also looks fairly dry. Aside from a stray snow flurry,
expect a dry frontal passage. Winds will shift out of the
northwest after the front moves past, drawing colder air south
over our area. Dew points will remain in the 20s, so expect
overnight temps to be no colder than the 20s.

Thursday...

Northwest winds will continue to draw somewhat colder air in
place. The air will be dry, so expect sunny skies. Temperatures
aloft will cool by about 7C degrees within a similar mixed 
layer to today, so expect somewhat cooler temperatures compared
with today. Temperatures aloft will support max sfc temps in 
the 30s, possibly lower 40s south of the Mass Pike.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights

* Below average temperatures move in for late week and into the 
  weekend. Average high temperatures are in the low 40s for this 
  time of year in our major metropolitan areas. 

* Little to no chance of precipitation over the long term forecast 
  period.

* Model consensus that a warm up is on the way early next week, but 
  the exact timing is still up in the air. 

Thursday Night and Friday... 

A more seasonable Thursday, with highs in the low 40s south and east 
and upper 30s north and west, before a cold front slides through the 
region. Any precipitable water present in the column, already on the 
order of hundredths, will be met by extremely low dewpoints, in the 
single digits, making the possibility of precipitation extremely low.

925mb winds Thursday evening suggest there is a possibility for gusty 
winds to return to the region, especially across the maritimes, the 
high elevations of the Worcester hills and the downslope of the
Berkshires. CONSAll guidance was blended into the NBM data to 
enhance the wind potential across the maritimes. 

On Friday, temperatures take a dive back into the 30s. Low 
temperatures on both Thursday and Friday night will bottom out in 
the 10s north and west to the mid 20s south and east across the Cape 
and Islands. 

Saturday and Sunday...

Sunny skies will prevail for the weekend, and temperatures will 
remain below average, topping out in the 30s, slightly warmer on 
Sunday compared to Saturday. Widespread 10s north and west and 20s 
south and east for lows. Light W/NW winds except across the 
maritimes where stronger gusts are likely on Saturday.

Early next week...

Guidance suggests that we return to seasonable temperatures on 
Monday, with highs in upper 30s to low 40s across the area. Beyond 
Monday, there is a strong signal that both the NAO and AO 
teleconnections will trend positive. Given that the end of the 
forecast period is still five days away, there is good model 
consensus that the region will warm to the mid to upper 50s starting 
next Tuesday. 

The next shot for considerable precipitation is after our forecast 
period ends.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Thursday...High Confidence.

VFR. West southwest winds gusting to 20 kt today diminish
tonight, then turn from the northwest on Thursday. Northwest
winds gust 20 to 25 kt Thursday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...

Today through Thursday...High Confidence.

Winds continue to diminish today, generally at Small Craft
conditions this morning. Most waters will be lower than Small
Crafts at some point this afternoon, with the southern outer
waters not becoming lighter until early tonight. 

Winds shift from the northwest tonight as a cold front sweeps
through. Northwest winds Thursday will increase to 25 kt with
seas building to 5-6 feet on the outer waters toward evening.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds 
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of 
freezing spray. 

Friday through Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of freezing spray. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for 
     ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230-
     231-236-251.
     Gale Warning until 3 AM EST early this morning for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KS
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WTB/KS
MARINE...WTB/KS
      

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