Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

46°F

1/14/2026 7:09pm

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 45.7°F / 7.6°C
Dew Point: 35.8°F
Relative Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.52 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 121718
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1218 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Brief snow showers or possible snow squalls developing late this
afternoon to early tonight, best chance for interior Southern
New England but still possible for eastern MA and RI. Gusty to
strong winds then develop tonight and peak overnight to early 
Monday before easing. Still monitoring a possible coastal storm
system late in the upcoming workweek but uncertainty remains
large on its strength and track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall low-impact weather is expected across southern New
  England Monday through Wednesday. 

- Unsettled pattern mid to late week featuring periodic chances
  for showers. Continuing to monitor a potential coastal system
  late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall low-impact weather is expected across 
southern New England Monday through Wednesday. 

Residual WNW winds persist through the first part of today as the 
low-level jet gradually pulls away. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are 
possible through early afternoon before diminishing. Winds remain 
somewhat elevated into the late afternoon with gusts generally 
around 15 to 20 mph before weakening further Monday evening. 

Otherwise, quiet weather dominates through Tuesday as surface high 
pressure remains south of the region with subtle mid-level height 
rises. Dry conditions prevail with seasonable temperatures Monday, 
with highs mainly in the upper 30s as 925mb temperatures hover 
around -3C. A warming trends develops Tuesday into Wednesday as 
return flow strengthens. 925mb temperatures rise into the +0C to +3C 
range on Tuesday and +3C to +6C range Wednesday, supporting above 
normal temperatures. Highs reach the low to mid 40s Tuesday, with a 
notably mild day Wednesday. Highs Wednesday should reach the mid to 
upper 40s, and some locations south and west of Boston into RI and 
southeast MA could approach 50F. Seasonable low temperatures Monday 
night in the 20s, a tad warmer on Tuesday night with upper 20s for 
interior southern New England and low to mid 30s for the coastal 
plain. 

An Alberta clipper tracking towards the northern Great Lakes Tuesday 
night may attempt to dip southeast toward New England. However, high 
pressure offshore and a weak mid-level ridge east of the Gulf of 
Maine could limit southward progression and shunt the system 
northeast towards Quebec. If the system clips the region, the 
primary impact would be snow showers across the higher terrain of 
northwest MA and rain showers for the low elevation Tuesday night 
into early Wednesday, with minor accumulations possible. Though 
confidence remains low. Wednesday night, a surface low passing 
offshore may bring rain showers back toward the Cape, Islands, and 
portions of southeast MA. Beyond this period, guidance continues to 
advertise a deepening longwave trough late Wednesday into Thursday 
with a cutoff mid-level low developing southwest of the region, 
setting the stage for what could be an active end to the work week 
and start of the weekend. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled pattern mid to late week, featuring
periodic chances for showers. Continuing to monitor a potential
coastal system late Thursday into Friday. 

There is good agreement among ensemble guidance for the upper-level 
pattern to shift toward a more amplified trough pattern across the 
east by late week. This will bring back colder temperatures 
(around/slightly below normal) by Friday. The pattern will also 
likely be active with a deep trough pushing eastward and several 
shortwave troughs moved ahead of it. A few pieces of shortwave 
energy appear to move through the flow near southern New England 
late Wednesday into Thursday. There is still question on how these 
disturbances track with respect to southern New England with one 
moving in from the west and another offshore. Overall, this will 
present a chance to see a round of light rain/snow showers to 
southern New England. Mean QPF is light overall, but any amounts 
will depend on the track of these waves which is uncertain right 
now. 

We continue to monitor the potential for development of a coastal 
low near/offshore sometime later Thursday into Friday. While a 
favorable track could bring widespread precipitation to southern New 
England, significant uncertainty remains. Model guidance continues 
to display plenty of spread in solutions and lacking run to run 
consistency especially with regard to the track, timing, strength of 
the surface low. Low tracks range from direct track across southeast 
MA to a complete miss offshore east or southeast of southern New 
England. There is also still uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-
level trough and track of the closed 500mb low. Recent model 
guidance has trended downward overall in the QPF; however, this 
should be taken with a grain of salt given previous variance between 
runs. If that track is favorable, this could bring snow or a wintry 
mix to the region depending on how cold the airmass is. 

Based on the given variables, the potential for a coastal low to 
impact the region remains low confidence. Will continue to monitor 
trends as the details come into better agreement among guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update: 

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR. W wind gusts to 25 kt diminishing and becoming SW around 
10 kt by late afternoon or early evening. SW winds continuing
into Tue then becoming more southerly in the afternoon.

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR, but brief MVFR possible as a few rain showers and 
elevation snow showers move through.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA.

Thursday: VFR. Chance RA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN, chance RA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Tuesday... High confidence. 

Gale Warnings in effect this evening on all waters. Initial westerly 
winds around 10 kt shift to WNW upon cold frontal passage and become 
gusty, with gusts 35 to 40 kt. Seas 7-12 ft on the outer waters with 
3-5ft seas nearshore as the NW winds develop. Will need to downshift 
gale warnings to small craft advisories as winds begin to ease into 
early Monday morning, with winds becoming WSW around 15-20 kt by 
late in the day, and continuing into Monday evening.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain. 

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. 

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain,
chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of snow, chance of
rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230-
     236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ235-237-250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch