Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 072322
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
722 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Becoming windy into this evening, then clearing and cold with
diminishing wind overnight.
- Dry conditions with less wind Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Below normal temps continue.
- Warming trend to temperatures Thursday and Friday. Still very
dry Thursday which could lead to fire weather concerns as
southerly winds increase.
- Dry weather generally prevails late this week into early next
week. Cooler temperatures for the weekend, but growing
confidence on a spell of above normal temperatures for early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Becoming windy into this evening, then clearing
and cold with diminishing wind overnight.
Mid level trough passage and cold pool move through this
afternoon. Scattered showers associated with this trough are
moving through SNE this afternoon and can't rule out some
graupel given the cold air aloft and steep lapse rates. As the
cold front moves through this afternoon winds will shift to NW
with 25-35 mph gusts into early evening. A few 40 mph gusts are
possible over higher terrain.
The trough exits tonight followed by subsidence and high pres
building in from the west. Expect clearing skies with
diminishing wind overnight as the gradient slackens. It will be
rather cold for this time of year with lows dropping into the
20s and some teens in the colder spots in western MA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions with less wind Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Below normal temps continue.
Strong high pres builds across New Eng Wed before shifting to the
east Wed night. Despite abundant sunshine Wed, shallow mixing and
light winds will result in a cool day with highs in the 40s to
perhaps low 50s in the lower CT valley. Developing sea-breezes
will likely hold temps near 40F along the eastern MA coast and
Cape/Islands.
Mainly clear skies and light winds Wed night as high pres slowly
drifts offshore, but ridging hangs back across New Eng. Another
cold night with lows in the 20s.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming trend to temperatures Thursday and
Friday. Still very dry Thursday which could lead to fire weather
concerns as southerly winds increase.
Steady warming trend continues Thursday and Friday with a ridge of
high pressure anchored to our southern coastline. Mostly clear to
partly sunny conditions should dominate both days, with south to
southwest winds around 10 mph, up to 15 mph in western portions of
Southern New England. Dewpoints are still not likely to have
recovered enough by Thursday, which will bring relative humidities
given favorable mixing down into the 20-25 percent range; thus,
possible fire weather concerns on Thursday, although the winds/gusts
are not particularly strong. Warmer day on Friday will be met with
more moisture too, with highs Friday into the 60s. All in all
though, both days are rather pleasant.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Dry weather generally prevails late this week
into early next week. Cooler temperatures for the weekend, but
growing confidence on a spell of above normal temperatures for
early next week.
Latest guidance now indicates a moisture-starved cold frontal
passage now about 6-12 hours sooner, instead moving through Saturday
morning. Other than some cloud cover, chances for rain with this
frontal passage look scant. Passage of the cold front will bring
arrival of cooler temperatures later Saturday with a period of
onshore flow/marine-influenced air for Sunday.
Only looks to be a brief cooldown though, as we enter into a stretch
of very mild weather for at least Monday and Tuesday. 925 mb temps
warm into the upper teens to around +20C, which would support highs
in the mid 70s factoring in southwesterly flow downsloping.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday night...High confidence.
VFR through the period. NW gusts to 25-30 kt early this evening,
then diminishing wind late tonight. Light wind Wed & Wed night
with sea-breezes developing by late Wed morning.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Friday: VFR.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Wednesday night...High confidence.
SCA in effect for all waters through tonight.
Increasing NW winds with gusts to 25-30 kt through much of
tonight, diminishing below 20 kt late tonight and Wed morning.
High pres builds over the waters Wed afternoon into Wed night
with light winds and seas, generally easterly wind 5-15 kt Wed
afternoon becoming SE-S Wed night.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ230-
233>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231-232-
250-251-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ236.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KJC/Loconto
AVIATION...Belk/KJC
MARINE...KJC
Meta data:
ID: 2cadb600-29e3-4864-96b2-ebded276a62f
Link:
https://api.weather.gov/products/2cadb600-29e3-4864-96b2-ebded276a62f
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX