Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

43°F
11/4/2024 10:41am 
  • Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
  • Temperature: 43.2°F / 6.2°CWarmer 0.9°F than last hour.
  • Dew Point: 32.2°FIncreased 1.6°Fsince last hour.
  • Relative Humidity: 65%Increased 2.0% since last hour.
  • Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
  • Barometer: 30.52 in Steady
  • Visibility: 10 miles
  • Rain Today: 0.00 in
  •   
Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Special Weather Statement
 - SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 021749
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
149 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures fall back to more seasonable levels for the 
weekend with continued dry conditions. Cool and cloudy for Monday 
with onshore winds. Well above normal temperatures in the 70s, along 
with windy conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another 
cold front moves through Thursday, but temps only fall back into the 
60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1110 AM Update: 

Satellite and observational trends show an increasing coverage
of cold-advection stratocumulus cloudiness primarily across MA
and northern portions of RI, with some ocean-enhanced cloudiness
over the Cape and Islands. RAP/HRRR BUFKIT RH x-sections show
this layer pretty well and it is also pretty shallow. These
models show decreasing RH into the early to mid afternoon; so I
did boost sky cover a bit toward more of a partly to mostly 
cloudy look thru midafternoon, with mostly clear conditions for
much of CT and RI. Decreasing cloudiness expected thereafter.
Otherwise, highs in the mid to upper 50s still look on track
with some diurnal heating offset by the cold advection (which
strengthens a bit more later in the evening).

Previous discussion:

High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this morning with a 
zonal flow aloft; this pattern persists through the day as the 
surface high slowly shifts east. The result is a much cooler day 
under NW flow and clear skies given the very dry airmass (PWATs less 
than a half inch). The cooler NW flow promotes good mixing up to at 
least 850 mb where temps are around -2C. This will mean a much more 
seasonable day today, 20+ degrees colder than yesterday. Highs will 
reach only the mid to upper 50s with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight, low temperatures will also be in stark contrast to 24 hours 
previous, in the upper 20s to low 30s thanks not only to the colder 
airmass but efficient radiational cooling under clear skies and 
light winds. Sunday expect more of the same as the high pressure 
moves overhead with PWATs near 0.25; plenty of sun with temperatures 
slightly below normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday:

High pressure begins to move offshore as the top of the ridge axis 
moves over the region.  With cool onshore flow and much of the same 
airmass in place, high temperatures wont rebound much and will stay 
in the 50s. Skies also turn mostly cloudy due to the onshore flow. 
SW flows aloft, and WAA begins to kick in Monday night.  This could 
bring a couple of weak showers through late Monday night, but upper-
level support is once again lacking.

Tuesday and Wednesday.  

The ridge axis moves east Tuesday before a weakening shortwave moves 
through Wednesday.  Surface flow turns SE, and winds become gusty 
again as a 35-45 knot LLJ moves overhead.  Gusts of 20-30mph are 
possible again on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures on Tuesday 
rise well above normal into the upper 60s to low 70s.  High 
temperatures peak on Wednesday in the low to mid-70s and possibly 
flirt with record values.  Dewpoints will also be on the rise 
Tuesday and Wednesday into the low to mid-50s.  As for precipitation 
chances, models have trended drier as they lack more significant 
moisture, and upper-level forcing continues to make it difficult for 
SNE to see any beneficial rain accumulations.

Thursday and beyond.

Another cold front looks to move through on Thursday, helping 
moderate temperatures back down into the 60s but still above normal 
for early November.  Forecast confidence breaks down past Thursday 
as global guidance starts to separate.  The GFS and EURO at this 
point indicate a continued dry pattern. Meanwhile, the GFS brings us 
into a more active and wetter pattern.  Taking a look at cluster 
analysis from the GEFS, ENS, and GEPS, the large majority of the 
ensemble members (81%) favor a continued dry pattern with another 
upper-level ridging building to the west.  A smaller subset of the 
ensemble members (19%) favor troughing to our west, which could lead 
to a more active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

Through 00z Monday: High confidence.

SCT-OVC mainly VFR cloud bases (around 030-050) to gradually
scatter out by late this aftn into early tonight. VFR SKC for
Sunday. 

NW winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt thru
late this afternoon, then NW winds begin to slowly decrease
tonight with light NW to N winds for Sunday.

Sunday Night: High confidence. 

VFR continues. Could see winds turn light ENE near the eastern
MA coast Sunday evening, otherwise light N winds.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. SCT-BKN VFR bases with NW
winds around 10 kt; decreasing cloud cover late this
aftn/tonight along with decreasing NW speeds.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. 

Outlook /Sunday through Monday/

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. 

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. 

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent. 


Today: N winds 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 ft. 

Tonight: N/NW winds less than 10kt with seas 1-3ft. 

Sunday: N winds 10-15 kts. Seas 1-3 ft. 

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in 
continued Fire Weather Concerns through next week. Upon coordination 
with the states of CT, RI, and MA, fire weather headlines or special 
weather statements are likely to be considered through the next week 
given no significant precipitation chances are on the horizon. A 
special weather statement is in effect for Saturday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...Loconto/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Loconto/Mensch
MARINE...Loconto/Mensch
FIRE WEATHER...BW/KP
      

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