Lexington Weather
Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
86°F
8/8/2022 7:22pm
- Clear
-
85.5°F / 29.7°C
-
73.8°F
-
68%
-
SW Calm, 10-min avg: 2 mph, gust: 12 mph
- 10 miles
- 0.00 in
Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 070227
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1027 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will be the main weather story right into
early next week. Heat Advisories have been extended through
Monday, and the threat of isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will remain as well. It may be Tuesday, or later, before this
heat and oppressive humidity finally breaks in a significant
way. Will have daily shots for showers and thunderstorms for
much of next week, but no washouts are anticipated at this time.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Most of southern
New England remained rain-free. Yet another muggy night with
above normal temperatures.
7:30 PM Update:
Diurnal cu has faded away as the sun angle lowers. Showers and
storms have diminished quickly over the past hour as well. Only
a few light returns from KBOX over far eastern New York along
the Massachusetts border. Those widely isolated showers will
fade over the next hour or two. During this update only a few
minor changes to the current temperature trend because obs were
running a few degrees warmer than what was in the forecast
grids. Otherwise, the forecast remains well on track.
See previous discussion below...
===================================================================
As of 3 PM temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and low 90s
which, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s, is making it
feel like 100-105 out there. Of note is the smattering of convection
that has formed across northern MA in the 1-2 hours. Forcing is very
limited with a stationary front well removed from our area, in New
Hampshire. Even so, diurnal heating has been enough to force some
scattered storms given the extremely unstable environment with CAPE
values over 2000 J/kg and low level lapse rates ~8.5C/km. Thinking
continues to be that these will be mostly garden variety pulse
thunderstorms whose updrafts go up and come back down rather quickly
thanks to negligible shear and poor mid level lapse rates.
Tonight any leftover convection loses steam after sunset and sets us
up for a dry night. Clear skies except for the Cape and islands
where lingering low level moisture may bring the return of low
stratus clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Get ready for a repeat of the same weather once again: hot, humid,
with scattered disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. While instability once again blossoms thanks to
temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, lack of shear to
organize or sustain convection and poor mid level lapse rates will
limit severe potential. Still thinking there will be a decent amount
of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early
evening as a weak trough of low pressure drops into western MA/CT
providing some weak forcing. This will also tighten the pressure
gradient making for a breezier day, especially over southeast MA and
on the southern and eastern waters. Sunday night convection once
again diminishes with sunset leaving a mostly clear night with lows
in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* Oppressive heat and humidity continues through early next week.
There is the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms daily.
* A slow-moving cold front could bring the chance for some much
needed rainfall to portions of the region by later next week, but
timing and areal coverage remain uncertain at this time.
* Turning more seasonable and much less humid late next week.
Details...
No notable air mass change as we enter the new work week so high
heat and humidity continues with a trend towards somewhat more
seasonable temps later in the work week. For reference, typical
highs for the second week of August are in the low to mid 80s. For
those tired of the heat and humidity, we should get a reprieve
sometime in the mid to late week time frame. But there remains
plenty of uncertainty with regards to the timing. CIPS analog
indicates that there is a somewhat better chance for stronger
thunderstorms in the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame, but that is
contingent on the strength and progression of the cold front. Given
the plenty of uncertainty, mainly stuck to blended guidance for the
long term forecast. While there may seem to be no end in sight to
this heat, the good news is that we are now past the
climatologically warmest time of the year and cooler days are not
far away.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. Threat for IFR/LIFR stratus/fog returns across the south
coast, but confidence remains low. WSW winds 5-10 kts,
terminals along the south coast, Cape, and Islands are WSW 10-15
kts, gust to 20 kts.
Sunday...Moderate Confidence.
Mixed bag of conditions. IFR stratus more likely to persist
towards the south coast. Still mainly VFR farther inland, with
brief periods of MVFR in any showers or thunderstorms.
Sunday Night: VFR. SW winds 5-10kt gusting to 20 kt along the
south coast.
KBOS...Moderate confidence in TAF due to uncertainty as to
whether any TSRA makes it to the terminal this afternoon.
KBDL...Moderate confidence in TAF due to uncertainty as to
whether any TSRA makes it to the terminal this afternoon.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday through Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Sunday night...High Confidence.
Light winds and seas through early Sunday with late night areas
of fog with reduced visibility. Sunday and Sunday night winds
gust 15-20 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. Seas increase to 5-6 ft on
the southern waters overnight.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 20 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Maximum Temperatures
August 7th:
BOS 98F [1924]
ORH 98F [1924]
PVD 95F [2001]
BDL 100F [1918]
August 8th:
BOS 96F [1983]
ORH 94F [1916]
PVD 95F [1909]
BDL 98F [2001]
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for MAZ002>023-026.
RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ231>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...Belk/BW/Gaucher
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Belk/BW/Chai/Gaucher
MARINE...BW/Chai
CLIMATE...Staff
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