Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231810
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
210 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures through this weekend.
- Unsettled weather for early to mid-week next week with
periodic chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures through
this weekend.
A surface high pressure will dominate our weather through this
weekend. It will remain relatively cool for late July with
comfortable humidity for most. Once of the more uncertain
aspects to this forecast will be the winds.
Gusty W to NW winds early this afternoon will continue to
subside into this evening. Not as confident this will lead to an
east coast sea-breeze for most, as the gradient wind would be
more likely to keep it just offshore. As this high pressure
moves overhead tonight into Friday, winds become very
light/calm. Have greater confidence in sea-breezes developing
Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather for early to mid-week next week
with periodic chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The pattern becomes more unsettled early next week with a mid-level
trough positioned across the northeast and a series of disturbances
moving through the flow. Overall there is a good signal for
increasing moisture with PWATs slightly above normal which will
support increased chances for periodic scattered showers and
thunderstorms early next week through mid-week. Temperatures
lean toward seasonable values in the low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00Z...High confidence.
VFR. Winds WNW to NW for most terminals 5-10 kts. Sea-breezes
likely for the coastal areas developing 18-20Z as NW winds
weaken.
Tonight through Friday Night...High confidence.
VFR. Light to calm winds overnight out of the S to SW, shift
more towards S to SE for Friday, then finally more E to NE late
Friday night.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Lower confidence in a sea-breeze developing after this
afternoon. Gusty NW winds are more likely to keep the sea-breeze
front over the harbor. There is still a low chance for a brief
sea-breeze right before the evening push.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday Night...High confidence.
Winds and seas continue to subside into tonight as a high
pressure moves over the waters Friday. Lingering rough seas
across the coastal waters behind a cold front. Did tweak the end
timing of the current Small Craft Advisories to account for
observed trends.
High Surf Advisory remains in effect for exposed southern
coastlines through this evening. Prolonged period of higher
seas and SW flow have increased the risk for rip currents. The
higher risk decreases Friday.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254-
256.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Belk/Frank
AVIATION...Belk/Frank
MARINE...Belk/Frank
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