Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

32°F

2/22/2026 7:53pm

Lexington Conditions: Light snow, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 31.6°F / -0.2°C
Dew Point: 29.7°F
Relative Humidity: 92%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 2 mph
Barometer: 29.94 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 4 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Blizzard Warning
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191130
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
630 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly warmer trends with respect to Friday's snow and mixed
precipitation event. Looking at more in the way of sleet and
even freezing rain, which has reduced expected snowfall totals 
by a couple of inches. There is also increasing confidence that 
snow, or at least a period of snow showers, lingers through much 
of the day on Saturday. Outside of the Friday system, guidance 
has trended northwest with the Sunday and Monday coastal storm. 
We are still 4-5 days from any potential impacts but the system 
certainly bears watching.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures through
  tonight.

- A wintry mix develops Fri-Fri night. Greatest risk for several
  inches of snow still appears to be across northern
  Massachusetts. Snow lingers into Saturday with additional  
  accumulations possible. 

- Latest guidance has shifted farther north and west with the
  track of a late weekend storm, bringing a greater chance for
  widespread snowfall and coastal flood impacts. There are still
  around 100 hours until this system would bring impacts, so a
  variety of outcomes remain on the table.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with near to slightly above normal
temperatures through tonight.

A ridge of high pressure provides a brief period of quiet
weather today and tonight. Anticipating a mix of sun and clouds
heading into this afternoon, with more clouds towards the
western half of southern New England. Increasing clouds tonight
as the warm front associated with a low pressure in the Great
Lakes approaches from the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A wintry mix develops Fri-Fri night. Greatest 
risk for several inches of snow still appears to be across 
northern Massachusetts. Snow lingers into Saturday with 
additional accumulations possible. 
  
Attention turns to Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes 
pushing a warm front toward the CWA Friday into Friday night. We
will also have to watch secondary low pressure system developing 
off the NJ coast prolonging impacts into Saturday. Precipitation
type forecast remains somewhat complex as high pressure across
Quebec looks to provide enough of a dry/cold antecedent airmass 
to result in snow and ice across portions of the region.
Ultimately, precipitation type will depend on how quickly the
secondary low pressure develops. Initial low pressure system
passing over the Great Lakes will allow mid-level warmth to 
advect northward across our region through Friday evening, then 
the secondary low will cut this surge off. So the earlier 
secondary low pressure develops the colder and snowier it will 
be especially across northern areas. On the other hand, a later 
development will result in a warmer solution with more in the 
way of rain for the coastal plain and a longer period freezing 
rain farther inland.

The 00z guidance continues to offer a range of solutions for the
strength and location of the mid-level warm nose, so still taking
a probabilistic approach at this time. The latest NBM has a
broad area of 10-20% probs for >0.05" of freezing rain for much
of interior Massachusetts. NBM shows slightly higher probs across
the Worcester hills with values as high as 30-40%. While this 
is certainly a signal for freezing rain, there are several
details that will need to be ironed out. BUFKIT model soundings 
show numerous possible evolutions of the warm nose with the 00z 
NAM indicating a deeper (200mb) and warmer (+2-3C) layer. 
Freezing rain is generally preferred when temps in the above 0C 
layer exceed +3C so these models with higher FZRA show deeper 
warm noses. Colder guidance including the GFS, HRDPS, and RRFS 
have a cooler +0C layer (+1-2C) that would favor more of a 
transition from snow to sleet. The eventual magnitude of the mid
level warm layer will make the difference between much of the 
region receiving several inches of snow or more ice/rain 
especially southern locations. Higher confidence in a period of 
accumulating snow for much of the region Friday afternoon and 
evening with strong isentropic lift along the warm front. 
Unfortunately, some of the heavier snow may fall near the Friday
afternoon commute so travel impacts are anticipated. Mixed 
precipitation may change back to a period of snow Friday night 
and linger into Saturday as an inverted trough-like feature 
lingers over the region.

This still looks like an advisory event but cannot rule out a 
marginal warning situation across parts of northern MA where 
snowfall is higher. This risk would increase if that inverted 
trough feature sets up and snow showers linger through Sat. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Latest guidance has shifted farther north and
west with the track of a late weekend storm, bringing a greater 
chance for widespread snowfall and coastal flood impacts. There 
are still around 100 hours until this system would bring
impacts, so a variety of outcomes remain on the table.

Last few model runs have shown a more amplified downstream ridge
and have thus trended back northwest with a potentially very
powerful coastal storm Sun night into Mon. That being said,
these trends moreso serve to underscore the run-to-run
variability as this is a Day 4-5 forecast, which is an eternity
in the model world. If these trends continue as much of the 
guidance suggests, then there may be a period of perhaps
significant impacts Sunday night into Monday. Plenty of time
here and the model trends will be very important over the next
48 hours. Not much more we can say at this point, but it is way
too early to write this one off and it still bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Light winds gradually shift from N to NE this morning to E
to SE tonight.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA, FZRA, chance
SN.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy. RA,
chance SN, FZRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SN.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
areas of gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with
local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the end of this week.

Leftover swell will maintain 5 ft seas on outer waters where 
Small Craft Advisories remain posted. Otherwise, relatively 
light winds and seas expected through tonight.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Rain, slight chance of freezing rain. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain,
chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
snow. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow. 

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of snow. 

Monday: gale force winds with local gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 17 ft. Chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for 
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT