Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

39°F

1/8/2026 11:23am

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 39.2°F / 4.0°C
Dew Point: 38.1°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 30.09 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 020905
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
405 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds continue to diminish across our region. Will adjust marine
headlines over the course of this morning. No changes for 
Sunday's snow potential. Still looking at a chance of snow 
showers with decreasing chances for a more substantial snow 
event. Increasing chances for light to moderate freezing spray 
Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure brings dry and cold weather through Saturday. 

- Light to moderate freezing spray over the waters is likely 
  into this weekend.

- Increasing chance for light snow showers on Sunday.
 
- Keeping an eye on possible mixed precipitation Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...High pressure brings dry and cold weather
through Saturday. 

Southern New England will be between major synoptic features
today. The most significant is a low pressure lingering near 
the Maritimes and Labrador today. While this will maintain
colder and drier conditions, winds should be less. There is a
possibility for some ocean effect showers over the southern
coastal waters, some of which may clip the islands early this
morning. SHould that happen, little snow accumulation is
expected. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light to moderate freezing spray over the 
waters is likely into this weekend.

A lengthy period of cold air over the warmer waters will lead to
periods of freezing spray into Saturday. There is potential for
moderate freezing spray early today, therefore a Freezing Spray
Advisory has been remains for some of the coastal waters. 
Another round of freezing spray is possible later Sunday into 
Monday behind a strong cold front that is forecast to pass 
through the waters Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Increasing chance for light snow showers on 
Sunday. 

01/18z ensemble and AI ensemble guidance has increased
probabilities of southern New England seeing >0.01" of snow into
the 50-80% chance. Chances of seeing >0.1" have continued to
decrease, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles only leaving < 10% 
chance on the Cape and AI ensembles keeping southern New England
completely dry. Uncertainty remains high in exactly which parts 
of southern New England will see snow as the areal extent and 
potential intensity of any snowfall will depend on the strength 
of a shortwave embedded in the northern branch of the jet.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Keeping an eye on possible mixed precipitation
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Global guidance is indicating another quick round of rain/snow
moving through southern New England on Tuesday. However, the
more impactful system seems to push through on Wednesday.
Currently appears that a low pressure system will originate from 
Colorado/Oklahoma Panhandle, push through the Great Lakes, and 
then move across southern Ontario. Ensemble guidance is showing 
850mb temperatures rising above 0C, leaving a warm layer for 
precipitation to melt in, and indicating southern New England 
could see snow, rain, and freezing rain. Given this is still 
several days away, we can't exactly pinpoint where the p-type 
transition will set up yet, nor can we say with any confidence 
what precip totals will be.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday...High confidence.

VFR through the TAF period. Gusty W winds across the 
Cape/Islands and eastern coast. Winds diminish to 5-10 kts
during this afternoon and persist through Saturday morning.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Monday: VFR. 

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SN.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA, slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and Friday Night...High Confidence. 

With the exception of the eastern outer waters, winds have
diminished below gale-force. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories 
have replaced the Gale Warnings across the inner waters and 
southern outer waters. Wind gusts will ramp up to around 20 kts
across all waters this afternoon and linger into Saturday 
before diminishing Saturday afternoon/evening.

Threat for moderate freezing spray for waters north of Cape Ann to 
the Merrimack River today, as well as Buzzards Bay, Vineyard 
Sound, and Nantucket Sound early this morning.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
snow. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of freezing spray, slight chance of snow. 

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain,
slight chance of snow. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ231-
     232-235-251.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for 
     ANZ232>234.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-254.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for 
     ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/McMinn
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn