Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

32°F

2/22/2026 7:53pm

Lexington Conditions: Light snow, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 31.6°F / -0.2°C
Dew Point: 29.7°F
Relative Humidity: 92%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 2 mph
Barometer: 29.94 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 4 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Blizzard Warning
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170740
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
240 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Special Weather Statement continues for possible freezing
drizzle for early this morning but impact should be minimal, if
any develops at all. Watching the chance for a period of snow or
mixed precipitation late this week but confidence is low at this 
time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak low pressure moving across northern New England could
  produce patchy freezing drizzle or flurries, but little if any 
  impact given spotty anticipated coverage.

- Accumulating snow expected across portions of southern New 
  England Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- Active and unsettled pattern continues late week into this
  weekend with multiple chances for wintry weather. Details to
  be determined, but increasing confidence in at least some 
  impacts for the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weak low pressure moving across northern New
England could produce patchy freezing drizzle or flurries, but
little if any impact given spotty anticipated coverage.

Still seeing signs for the possibility of freezing drizzle,
mainly in the high resolution guidance. There is a lack of
strong forcing and deep humidity, so not expecting much more
than that this morning. 

Although we only need a trace of icing to trigger Winter Weather 
Advisories, given that the majority of road surfaces have been
well treated, and the spotty anticipated coverage, will instead
continue to message this risk via a Special Weather Statement. 
Even then, any icing impacts would be on untreated surfaces or 
elevated bridges. 

Otherwise, expecting a cloudy and pretty dreary/raw day despite
southwest winds. Continued to undercut the deterministic high
temperatures today but not by much. Temperatures this morning
were already a few degrees lower already, especially across
eastern MA.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Accumulating snow expected across portions of 
southern New England Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Difficult snow forecast as uncertainty remains with the axis of 
heaviest precipitation and how low in elevation the snow line
will get across our region. Continue to have the greatest
confidence, not that it is much, for snowfall across the higher
terrain from the northern Worcester Hills along the Route 2
corridor into Franklin County. Much will depend on timing, as
snowfall is more likely during the nighttime hours.

Snowfall amounts continue to fluctuate between the guidance.
Latest NationalBlend data showed only about a 50-60% chance for
more than 3" of snow across far northern MA, practically into NH
and VT. It was about a 50% chance for 2 inches of snow along and
north of the Mass Pike. Will continue to evaluate the need for
any headlines with later forecasts.

This system pulls away Wednesday night and we have high
confidence of dry conditions Thursday with temperatures mostly 
in the 30s, to perhaps lower 40s in spots, as high pres builds 
in from the north.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Active and unsettled pattern continues late week
into this weekend with multiple chances for wintry weather.
Details to be determined, but increasing confidence in at least 
some impacts for the region.

Complex and amplified upper air pattern evolves later this week
with an anomalously strong and zonal Pacific jet pushing
numerous shortwaves across the CONUS. There remains significant 
disagreement between global guidance with respect to how the
shortwaves interact with each other and so confidence remains 
low at this time. The first potential for wintry weather is 
slated to arrive later Friday into Saturday. Guidance currently 
depicts a broad swath of precipitation along a northward moving 
warm front extending from an area of low pressure centered over 
the Great Lakes. There are a myriad of potential solutions and 
numerous sources of error with this feature that will ultimately
determine the timing amounts and intensity of any liquid or 
frozen precipitation that falls. It's common to see mixed 
precipitation and icing with these overrunning events so future 
forecasts may have to hone in on freezing rain and mixed 
precipitation but we are still 4+ days away from the event. 
After the Friday- Saturday event, Sunday- Monday will need to be
monitored for the next threat for impactful period of weather. 
Guidance is offering a wide variety of solutions from a deep 
coastal low to a more progressive system that mainly passes out 
to sea. Impacts from this system will ultimately be governed by 
the eventual track and intensity of the low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Today: Moderate confidence. 

BKN/OVC VFR thru 06-09z then deteriorating to at least 
widespread MVFR 09-12z as weak wave of low pressure passes to 
our north. MVFR to borderline IFR ceilings for Tue, which could 
be accompanied by scattered flurries or patchy freezing 
drizzle/sprinkles, but either type too spotty to mention in TAF 
given expected nil accums. Best chance would be between 11-18z 
west to east. It remains uncertain if ceilings improve 
thereafter, and MVFR-IFR ceilings could linger into Tue night. 
Winds become S/SW 5-10 kt.

Tonight through Wednesday Night: Moderate confidence.

A slow-moving front approaches our region from the north late
tonight into Wednesday, then possibly reaches the south coast of
New England by Wednesday night. A mix of VFR and MVFR for most
of the time tonight into Wednesday morning. Another round of
low-end MVFR or IFR expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. Relatively light winds shifting N to NE Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR/MVFR ceilings
thru tonight, then increasing clouds with ceilings dropping to
widespread MVFR/borderline IFR. Low chance of flurries or
freezing drizzle but accums are nil given spotty coverage.  

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR ceilings thru 
tonight, then increasing clouds with ceilings dropping to 
widespread MVFR/borderline IFR. Low chance of flurries or 
freezing drizzle but accums are nil given spotty coverage.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: VFR. 

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Friday through Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Chance SN, chance RA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday Night: High confidence. 

Low pressure continues to pull away from the southeast waters
today. Seas will remain elevated on the outer waters into
Wednesday night. Mainly dry weather should prevail, though 
can't rule out a flurry or sprinkle this morning but not enough
to restrict visibility.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain, chance of snow. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT