Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

32°F

1/18/2026 9:16am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 31.5°F / -0.3°C
Dew Point: 30.0°F
Relative Humidity: 94%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 3 mph
Barometer: 30.04 in Rising Slowly
Visibility: 7 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Winter Weather Advisory
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 130812
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
312 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Some 
interior rain showers very late tonight, but any snow showers 
confined to the very highest terrain. Relatively mild 
temperatures today and especially Wednesday with sharply colder 
weather arriving later Thursday into Friday behind a strong cold
front. While a significant storm appears unlikely Saturday 
night into Sunday...but a bit of snow is certainly possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall quiet weather today, followed by a period of showers
  late tonight across interior southern New England with some
  snow showers confined to the very highest terrain. 

- Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain showers
  perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers 
  early Thu across the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

- Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry & cold Thu 
  night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits & teens 
  with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a bit of snow
  sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall quiet weather today, followed by a 
period of showers  late tonight across interior southern New 
England with some snow showers confined to the very highest 
terrain. 

A series of shortwaves quickly move from west to east tonight 
along zonal flow. First disturbance passes with little impacts 
outside of an increase in mid and high level clouds this 
morning across northern MA. Milder day follows as a transient 
ridge axis develops over New England. Latest guidance still 
shows a milder day on tap as 925mb temps climb to 0- 2C. A more 
amplified shortwave digs over the Great Lakes later Tuesday into
Tuesday night. First sign of its approach will be increasing 
mid and high level clouds later today. Should see a broken band
of precipitation pass through the CWA with the higher POPs 
located across northern Massachusetts. Much of the forcing with 
this shortwave will be confined to Northern New England and so 
shower activity will be limited in coverage and intensity. May 
also see a few flakes mix in across the higher terrain but 
accumulations if any will be light with marginal temperatures 
and modest QPF. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain showers
perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers early Thu across 
the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

An amplifying shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and into 
northern New England Wed into early Thu. Out ahead of this cold 
front/amplifying shortwave trough...southerly flow will result in 
unseasonably mild temperatures. Despite considerable clouds...high 
temps will be well into the 40s to near 50 in a few spots. These 
readings are a solid 10+ degrees above normal for mid January 
standards. 

Given the bulk of the dynamics passing to our north...not expecting 
a lot of precipitation and much of this time will feature dry 
weather. Nonetheless...a few showers will be possible at times Wed 
into Wed night with the focus for them across interior southern  New 
England closer to the shortwave energy. As colder air begins to work 
in from the west...may see precipitation end as a brief period of 
light snow showers across interior southern New England early Thu 
morning. Any snow accumulations should be a dusting to generally 
less than 1 inch. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry & 
cold Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits & 
teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Low pressure will rapidly intensifies Thu into Thu night as it 
tracks northeast from northern new England into the Canadian 
Maritimes. The result will be a shot of much colder air working into 
southern new England Thu into Fri. Temps on Thu will likely fall 
during the afternoon into the upper 20s and 30s on a stiff gusty 
west wind. Low temps Thu night will drop into the upper single 
digits and teens. Wind chills will drop to between 5 below and 10 
above by daybreak Fri. High temps on Fri will only recover into the 
upper 20s and lower 30s. High pressure building in from the west 
will keep our weather dry...despite the cold temperatures. 

KEY MESSAGE 4...Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a 
bit of snow sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm is 
unlikely.

High pressure quickly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast to start 
the weekend as another trough gets carved out across the Great 
Lakes. This allows for a quick rebound in temperatures with highs 
mainly in the 40s on Sat. The forecast then becomes quite complex 
Sat night into Sunday with an amplifying trough to our west with 
several pieces of shortwave energy. The problem is that the guidance 
is struggling on which piece of energy to amplify and where the 
actual surface low develops. Latest guidance tends to develop the 
main surface low too far north and late for a significant storm. That 
being said...there are a few pieces of guidance including the 
CMC/ICON that have a wave of low pressure further south with the 
potential for an inverted trough setup. So while a significant storm 
appears unlikely...given the amount of shortwave energy to our west 
we can not rule out period of snow sometime Sat night into Sun if an 
inverted trough sets up. Whether or not this happens remains to be 
seen...but it is something to watch in the coming days. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update: 

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Light S winds continuing this morning then becoming more 
southerly in the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR, but brief MVFR conditions possible overnight across
the interior with a few rain showers. Any snow showers will be
confined to the very highest terrain. Period of LLWS also
expected overnight with modest SW low level jet.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance
SHSN.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and tonight...High Confidence. 

Winds have diminished this morning...but lingering marginal 5
foot seas will persist across the southern waters before
diminishing this afternoon. Modest southwest LLJ develops
tonight with another period of 25-30 kt gusts expected. SCA 
conditions hoisted tonight for most waters.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers. 

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of
snow showers. 

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Freezing spray. 

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers, slight chance of snow showers. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST 
     Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FT/Frank
AVIATION...FT/Frank
MARINE...FT/Frank