Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

28°F

2/14/2026 5:14am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 27.9°F / -2.3°C
Dew Point: 16.9°F
Relative Humidity: 63%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 1 mph
Barometer: 29.97 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 132002
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
302 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No major changes to the forecast. The coastal storm will 
pass well south of the region Sunday night into  Monday with 
little if any impact in southern New England. Next chance for 
more unsettled weather is mid and late next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with seasonable high temps in the 30s to near 40 this
  weekend outside of a brief passing flurry late tonight-Sat am.

- Coastal Storm will pass well south of the region Sunday night
  into Monday with little if any impact. Next chance for more 
  unsettled weather is mid and late next week.

- Seasonable temperatures much of next week with Tuesday being
  the potential above normal day...perhaps 50+ in some spots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with seasonable high temps in the 30s to near 40 
this weekend outside of a brief passing flurry late tonight-Sat am.

A moisture starved shortwave dropping down in northwest flow will 
bring mainly just clouds to the region later tonight into Sat 
morning with nothing more than a brief passing flurry or two. 
Otherwise...a ridge of high pressure builds into the region this 
weekend bringing dry weather with seasonable temperatures. Highs 
will mainly be in the 30s...but some locations may reach 40 Sat 
afternoon. Overnight low temps will mainly be in the teens with some 
single digits possible in the outlying locations particularly Sat 
night with less clouds. Meanwhile the urban heat island of Boston as 
well as the outer-Cape/Nantucket will only see low temps bottom out 
in the lower to middle 20s.

Key Message 2...Coastal storm will pass well south of the 
region Sunday night into Monday with little if any impact. Next
chance for more unsettled weather is mid and late week.

Guidance has continued to trend the possible coastal storm well 
south of southern New England. A positively tilted trough tracking 
through the SW US today and through the weekend will continue east, 
reaching the east coast Sunday night. Its surface low will track off 
the coast of the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday, shifting out to 
sea and most likely missing southern New England. At most, some 
showers could clip parts of the south coast and the Islands, but 
most members across ensembles have continued to center around the 
offshore pass. The northern stream shortwave moving across the Great 
Lakes is still expected to be the primary driver for keeping this 
system offshore. With this expected to be a less impactful event, 
our attention turns more towards another possible system midweek.

Another system tracks across the central US and towards the eastern 
US midweek, possibly impacting southern New England sometime 
Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance is indicating some shallow cold 
air, which could lead to some mixed precipitation issues as 850 mb 
temperatures just above that later climb to around 0C and slightly 
above it. Ptype issues could come up again for the system following 
this one towards the end of the week depending on how it tracks. One 
thing to continue monitoring for it would be the development of high 
pressure over Quebec in that timeframe that would likely impact that 
system. Much is still unknown this far out in the forecast, so stay 
tuned for updates.

Key Message 3...Seasonable temperatures much of next week with
Tuesday being the potential above normal day...perhaps 50+ in
some locations.

Mid-level heights rise going into Tuesday afternoon and ahead of the 
possible Wednesday/Thursday system, and winds shift more SW in the 
lower levels (more W as you go higher up), advecting in warmer and 
more moist air. Ensemble probabilities are quite high across 
southern New England for high temperatures Tuesday reaching 40F or 
higher. GEPS guidance even has low probs for spots in CT reaching 
50F, and if we do get those SW winds with good mixing, the chance 
for highs hitting 50F there could be higher. Generally, we get back 
to more seasonably normal temperatures in the mid 30s and low 40s 
through Wednesday before slightly colder air could make its way into 
the region towards the end of the week. Lows remain seasonable in 
the 20s and 30s as well during this warmer period until the end of 
the week. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

High confidence in the TAF through Sunday. VFR conditions 
persist through the weekend with dry weather outside a brief 
spot flurry or two late tonight into Sat morning. Light winds 
generally 10 knots or less through the weekend decoupling in the
typical spots during the overnight/early morning hours.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. 

Sunday Night: VFR. 

Washingtons Birthday through Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with
local MVFR possible. 

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. 

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Sunday...High confidence.

The main concern will be a cold frontal passage with a surge of NW 
wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots and choppy seas across our northern 
waters Sat night into mid morning Sun. We have issued a small craft 
advisory these locations where some light freezing spray is expected 
too. Otherwise...a ridge of high pressure will keep winds/seas below 
small craft advisory across the rest of the waters through the 
weekend.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM EST Sunday for 
     ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for 
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/Hrencecin
AVIATION...Frank/Hrencecin
MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin