Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

70°F

6/16/2026 8:44pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 70.2°F / 21.2°C
Dew Point: 53.8°F
Relative Humidity: 56%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.73 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 161212
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
812 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More seasonable temperatures, dry weather and comfortable
  humidities through tonight. Scattered pop-up showers across 
  far western New England later Wednesday afternoon.

- High astronomical tides with less than a foot of storm surge
  could cause minor coastal flooding for the late evening high 
  tides tonight.

- Gusty southerly winds with some showers and perhaps a few
  thunderstorms Thursday. Watching the severe weather potential
  too, but right now thinking main threat will be to our
  southwest.

- Beautiful stretch of weather Friday through Monday with warm
  afternoons and comfortable humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...More seasonable temperatures, dry weather and
comfortable humidities through tonight. Scattered pop-up showers 
across far western New England later Wednesday afternoon.

Southern New england remains stuck between a nearly stationary 
low pressure across Nova Scotia and a weak high pressure across 
the central Appalachians. This will maintain a weak northwest to
west flow across our region, except for local sea breezes late 
this morning into this evening. Thinking this should be a 
slightly later start to the seabreeze than is typical, more like
early afternoon than mid morning.
 
A more robust south wind is expected for Wednesday. Still
thinking most of the day remains dry, but cannot dismiss the
idea of a few pop-up afternoon showers across western MA. Not
looking like much instability given the relatively lower surface 
dewpoints and high temperatures mainly in the 70s. Will need to 
monitor this over the next day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High astronomical tides with less than a foot of
storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the late
evening high tides tonight.

Mostly splashover with minor coastal flooding observed with the
late evening high tide. The higher of two diurnal high tides
will remain the late evening one. Expecting overall tide heights
to slow decrease over the course of this week. With the
expectation for more localized minor coastal flooding, opted to
continue the Coastal Flood Statements instead of Coastal Flood
Advisories. That said, have the greatest concern for the typical
spots like Morrissey Blvd. Low lying areas around Nantucket have
also had some issues the past few high tide cycles. It's 
possible an Advisory may be needed here for another tide cycle,
but will let later shifts evaluate further.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Gusty southerly winds with some showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday. Watching the severe 
weather potential too, but right now thinking main threat will 
be to our southwest.

Low pressure tracking northeast across Quebec will allow a pre-
frontal trough/cold front to approach our region from the west
on Thursday. Ahead of these features, a modest southwest LLJ 
of 45 to 55 knots will develop. This coupled with mixing will 
result in gusty southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph developing. High
temperatures probably top out in the upper 70s to the middle 
80s for most locales.

We do expect some showers to impact the region very late Wed
night into the first half of Thu morning with a warm front 
crossing the region. Then we may see another round of scattered 
showers and perhaps a few t-storms Thu afternoon/evening with 
the actual cold front/shortwave. We will need to watch the risk 
for severe weather too given strong wind fields. But right now 
thinking that the main risk for this looks to be to our 
southwest where better instability resides. 

KEY MESSAGE 4...Beautiful stretch of weather Friday through
Monday with warm afternoons and comfortable humidity.

Two closed upper level lows just south of Hudsons Bay will
result in height fields lower than normal Friday into this
weekend across the Northeast. This will suppress deeper moisture 
to our south and result in a beautiful stretch of weather. High 
temperatures will generally be between 75 and 85 with
comfortable humidity. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be
in the 50s to the lower 60s. 

Generally dry weather is on tap over this time period too. Some 
northern stream energy may result in a few brief diurnally driven 
spot showers, but for the most part dry weather is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds this morning at 5-10 kts, continuing for the
inland terminals. Winds shift SSW for PVD and Cape/Island
terminals mid-afternoon. Local seabreezes develop this 
afternoon along the east coast (BOS). Timing is moderate 
confidence, but should more likely develop between 17-20Z. Winds
shift back toward S/SSW 00-03Z. 

Tonight...High Confidence. 

VFR. Light SW winds less than 10 kts.

Wednesday...High Confidence. 

VFR. Mid-level ceilings developing through the day. Winds SSW 
5-10 kts for most terminals. S/SSE winds for BOS around 8-12 
kts. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence (sea breeze timing).
Sea breeze develops more likely between 17-20Z. Earliest 16Z and
latest 21Z. Low probability that sea breeze remains just
offshore. 
 
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR. 

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Juneteenth through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday: High confidence. 

Winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through Wednesday. Could see some gusts around 20 kt this
afternoon around the Cape and islands, especially across the
southern coastal waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. 

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain
showers. 

Juneteenth through Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/Frank
AVIATION...Belk/Mensch
MARINE...Belk/Frank