Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

32°F

2/22/2026 7:53pm

Lexington Conditions: Light snow, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 31.6°F / -0.2°C
Dew Point: 29.7°F
Relative Humidity: 92%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 2 mph
Barometer: 29.94 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 4 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Blizzard Warning
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221154
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
654 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Converted the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory 
for Nantucket. Increased snow totals across east central
Massachusetts and Rhode Island to show a widespread 18-24 inches.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A powerful winter storm brings significant impacts to much of
  the region tonight into Monday, with heavy snowfall, strong
  winds and blizzard conditions for RI and much of SE and
  coastal Massachusetts.

- Expecting significant coastal impacts with areas moderate
  coastal flooding during the late tonight/early Monday morning
  high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will be 
  from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A powerful winter storm brings significant
impacts to much of the region tonight into Monday, with heavy 
snowfall, strong winds and blizzard conditions for RI and much 
of SE and coastal Massachusetts.

Timing: Felt that the 22/00Z HREF had a good handle on onset 
timing with snow/flurries developing late this afternoon across
CT/RI/MA. The accumulating snow will begin late today into this
evening. Then the heaviest snow will occur from late tonight 
into Monday afternoon.

A deep and negatively tilted trough over the Mid Atlantic provides
the necessary forcing for cyclogenesis off the NC coast this
morning with rapid deepening expected to commence overnight 
into Monday morning. System undergoes bombogenesis and
strengthens from 1005mb at 15z today to around 965-970mb early 
Monday. At the mesoscale, high-resolution guidance has resolved
quite a deformation zone for the eastern part of southern New
England early Monday morning through the afternoon.

The resulting frontogenetic forcing brings in some extreme
hourly hourly snowfall rates. The HREF continues to show high
probabilities (>80%) of snowfall rates exceeding 2"/hr along the 
I-95 corridor in Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. These
extreme rates are the result of exceptionally strong lift within 
the DGZ. Some guidance such as the NAM even shows -80 ubar of
lift for a time early Monday morning! Wouldn't be surprised to
see some thundersnow with lift of this magnitude. This period 
of prolific rates will be somewhat prolonged as the axis of 
frontogenesis orients itself from W-E early to mid morning 
Monday. Heaviest snowfall for most in this area will be from 
06-15z. A fly in the ointment for this forecast will be pinning 
down areas of subsidence (sinking air) on the periphery of these
bands. The HRRR has been somewhat consistent with showing a 
zone of subsidence over the CT river valley so we have slightly 
lower totals there. 

Snow amounts: Guidance has continued to show over an inch of QPF
for our region, with perhaps 2 inches for the Cape and Islands.
Thus, very high confidence in at least a foot of snow across RI 
and southeast MA, with a solid potential for up to 2 feet in
this corridor. Farther west into CT and western-central MA, some 
uncertainty with subsidence and proximity to the best low level 
frontogentic forcing. Nonetheless, high confidence for 12-18
inches for CT and western-central MA. Opted to go with a Winter
Weather Advisory for Nantucket as the more amplified storm track
likely brings a period of heavy rain behind 4-6 inches of snow.
Snow loading remains a concern, especially in the corridor where 
we expect upwards of 2 feet of snow as this be a heavy/wet snow.

The consistency of the snow will initially be heavy/wet, especially
along the coast, then gradually becoming lighter with mid level
cooling as the winds turn to the northwest Monday afternoon. 
Across the interior, snowfall ratios should be around 10 to 13:1
at the onset and closer to a pasty 6 to 8:1 at the coast. 
Ratios may increase to as high as 12 to even 14:1 across the
interior Monday afternoon. The lighter, fluffier snow will have 
a much easier time blowing around and drifting so, while rates 
may decrease, visibility will remain extremely low through the 
day.

Strong to Damaging Winds: Big issue with this system will be
strong to damaging winds that will likely extend to at least the 
I-84 and I-395 corridors. Will see a powerful 60-80 knot low
level jet in response to surface low pressure rapidly deepening 
near or just inside the benchmark early Monday morning. Boundary
layer winds will average around 40 knots in the interior, and
60 knots closer to the coast. Model soundings also show a fairly 
deep boundary layer on the order of 2-3k feet. This should allow
for some of those stronger winds aloft to mix down with
widespread gusts of 40-50 mph spreading even well inland. Closer 
to the coast, gusts will approach 60 and even 70+ miles per hour
on the Cape and Islands. These wind speeds combined with the 
heavy snowfall rates will create white out conditions at times, 
hence a Blizzard Warning in those areas. Occasional blizzard 
and whiteout conditions are possible across the elevated terrain
as hills will be closer to the low level jet. Confidence in 
sustaining blizzard conditions for the necessary three hours in 
these locations is 50-60% so, just below warning criteria.

Storm will likely be damaging to electrical infrastructure with
the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow bringing a 
chance for power outages to much of Rhode Island and eastern MA.

Summary of impacts: Heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected 
from roughly late tonight/early Monday morning into Monday
afternoon. Travel will be nearly impossible, with snowfall 
rates 2-4" per hour at times during this period. Also, heavy wet 
snow will combine with strong winds, yielding the potential for
power outages across RI and eastern MA. Finally, high
astronomical tides Monday into Tuesday brings the potential 
for minor to moderate coastal flooding along eastern MA coast, 
depending upon timing of highest surge. Surge guidance and 
pattern recognition suggests a 3 foot surge around high tide 
early Monday morning and again early Tuesday morning, which 
could bring the water level to over 6 feet in Nantucket Harbor 
and to 13.5 feet in Boston, although wave impacts along the 
coastline would result in greater impacts (likely Moderate) as 
well as coastal erosion. Keep in mind large pressure falls would
also add to the water level.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Expecting significant coastal impacts with areas
moderate coastal flooding during the late tonight/early Monday
morning high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will 
be from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands.

A storm surge of 2-3' at the time of high tide early Monday
morning (2AM-5AM) will likely yield moderate coastal flooding 
from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. 
Therefore a Coastal Flood Warning continues for this portion of
the coastline. Farther northward from Boston to the NH border, 
there is more uncertainty, with a higher probability of minor 
flooding. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory posted there.

The greatest storm surge (up to 4 ft) appears to occur during 
low tide Monday (9-10AM). However, there could be enough storm 
surge for minor coastal flooding during the late day high tide 
(3-6PM). Although, given the astro tide is lower and winds will
be more northerly, only expecting minor flooding. Nonetheless, 
a Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for this Monday
afternoon high tide to account for any storm track changes,
including timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate confidence.

MVFR CIGS with light ENE winds. Areas VFR CIGS towards the east
coast, becoming MVFR by late morning.

Tonight through Monday Morning: High Confidence

MVFR turning IFR/LIFR as light snow overspreads the region 
between 22-04z. Winds become gusty out of the NE at 15-20 knots.
Snow rates pick up overnight, becoming very heavy at times. 
Winds increase overnight with gusts of 50-70 knots possible in 
eastern MA/RI esspically for the Cape and Islands. Significant 
LLWS with 70 knots of wind down to 500 feet.

Monday Afternoon and Night: High confidence.

Improvement to VFR from W to E as coastal low pressure moves
farther offshore. VFR by 00Z across the western half of southern
New England, but likely taking until midnight to reach the east
coast of MA. Diminishing winds, especially after midnight.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MVFR returns by late morning with increasing SE winds. Snow 
should hold off until after 23/04z. Snow quickly becomes heavy 
with hourly rates greater than 1" likely after 23/10z. Blizzard 
conditions expected with gusts up to 50 kts by daybreak Monday.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MVFR for the TAF period. Light snow reaches the terminal around
23/00z. Snow quickly becomes heavy with hourly rates greater 
than 1" likely after 23/06z.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SN.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN,
chance RA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA,
slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

A very powerful storm develops off the Mid Atlc coast today, 
rapidly intensifying tonight and Monday into a dangerous storm,
as it moves near the 40N/70W benchmark. This storm will be
accompanied by very strong winds up to 60 kt and seas 15-25 ft
across the RI and MA waters. Heavy snow will reduce vsby to 
near zero at times tonight and Monday. This storm exits into 
the Maritimes Monday night, with improving weather conditions 
Tuesday and beyond.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of freezing spray. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST 
     Tuesday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST 
     Tuesday for MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     Blizzard Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday 
     for MAZ007-013>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for MAZ007-
     015-016.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for MAZ019-
     022>024.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday 
     evening for MAZ019-022>024.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST 
     Tuesday for MAZ024.
     High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday 
     for MAZ024.
RI...Blizzard Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday 
     for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for 
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT