Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 246 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 00Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 00Z Tue Mar 10 2026 ...Severe weather and flash flood risk expected with widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to Texas Saturday... ...Lower elevation coastal/valley rain and high elevation snow will continue for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies this weekend... ...Well above average to record warmth pushing eastward into the eastern U.S. as anomalous warmth emerges over the northern Plains during the weekend... A stormy Saturday is in store from Texas to the Great Lakes as showers and thunderstorms track eastward along and ahead of an advancing cold front. Increased shear ahead of a leading upper-level shortwave over the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley is expected to lead to a few more robust thunderstorms, which has prompted a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center for the threat of a few tornadoes as well as damaging winds. Greater instability and sufficient shear to the southwest over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern/south Texas is also expected to produce some severe weather with a second Slight Risk in place for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. In addition, the tendency for storms to train/repeat over the same areas as storm movements become more parallel to the increasingly east/west oriented cold front across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas has prompted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for the threat of some scattered instances of flash flooding. More isolated instances of severe weather and flash flooding can be expected elsewhere ahead of the front. The cold front is expected to continue tracking eastward spreading the convection to the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions for Sunday. The frontal boundary will move offshore while lingering from the Southeast to the south-central states.The risk for severe weather and flash flooding on Sunday is currently expected to remain isolated. A persistent influx of Pacific moisture within the energetic upper-level flow will keep chances for lower elevation coastal/valley rain and higher elevation snows to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the weekend. A more potent system will bring the chance for some locally heavy snowfall into the mountains by later Sunday and especially into Monday. Elsewhere, some light freezing rain will linger into the day Saturday for portions of northern New England. Some daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Florida, and an intensifying upper-low will bring a shot for some isolated showers and thunderstorms into the Desert Southwest late Sunday and into early Monday. Very strong, gusty winds are expected across southern California today as a Santa Ana wind event continues, with gusts upwards of 70 mph possible. Similarly strong winds, with gusts upwards of 80 mph possible, are also expected with a cold front passage across the northern Rockies Sunday. Above to well-above average temperatures will be present across a vast portion of the country this weekend. Some of the greatest departures from normal will be centered near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in terms of 20 to 30 degrees warmer, with daily high temperatures climbing into the 60s and 70s; which, could yield numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs. For the Southeast, daily highs into the 80s Saturday, though a cold front will bring relatively cooler temperatures by around 10 degrees across these regions Sunday. The Northeast, after a cooler end to the week due a lingering frontal boundary, will finally see a warm up into the 40s and 50s Saturday with 60s by Sunday. For the central U.S., well above average highs are expected ahead of the cold front Saturday with 60s and 70s for the Middle Mississippi Valley and 70s and 80s into the Lower Mississippi Valley west into portions of Texas. A relative cool down by 5 to 10 degrees will follow on Sunday. Meanwhile, highs across the Plains will warm from the 50s Saturday into the 60s and 70s Sunday as post-frontal conditions moderate. Another batch of potential record-tying/breaking daily highs will be possible in the northern Plains as these temperatures reach upwards of 25-30 degrees above average here as well. Temperatures will also be trending warmer and further above average across the western U.S. this weekend. Forecast highs Saturday range in the 40s and 50s for the interior and the 60s and 70s for California and into the Desert Southwest, and will trend around 10 degrees warmer for Sunday. The one exception will be in the Pacific Northwest where highs in the 50s Saturday will cool a few degrees Sunday following a cold front passage. Campbell/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php