Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Jul 10 2025 - 00Z Sat Jul 12 2025 ...There is a moderate risk (at least 40%) of excessive rainfall for portions of the Mid-Atlantic... ...Severe weather and excessive rainfall concerns for portions of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley... ...Major to extreme heat related impacts for portions of the Southwest on Thursday... ...There is a critical fire weather area for eastern Nevada and far western Utah... A slow moving trough and surface front will act as a focus for afternoon/evening storms across the East Coast over the next couple of days. Storms are expected to develop and move through the Mid-Atlantic region tonight, where soils are already relatively saturated. Heavy rainfall on the order of 2-4 inches in some places may produce flash flooding, which is why there's a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in effect for portions of southeastern Pennsylvania down through far southwestern New Jersey, northern Delaware, central Maryland, DC, the Virginia Piedmont and north/central North Carolina. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable due to the ubiquity of impervious surfaces, which generate runoff when rained on. The Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Afternoon/evening storms capable of producing heavy rainfall are expected to continue across the region through Friday. Shortwave energy moving through the Great Plains will generate storms across parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley over the next few days. The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for portions of central South Dakota and north-central Nebraska tonight. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible. SPC has a separate slight risk area out for parts of south-central Montana early this evening, with scattered damaging winds possible. There's a slight risk of excessive rainfall in effect for portions of Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri and Illinois. A retrograding upper ridge will contribute to above average temperatures across the West over the next couple of days. Major to isolated extreme HeatRisk is expected for much of the Southwest through Thursday before temperatures begin to moderate this coming weekend. Major heat-related impacts are also possible in and around south Georgia and northern Florida over the next several days. Elevated thunderstorms over dry soils will contribute to a critical risk of fires over portions of eastern Nevada and far western Utah this evening. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php