Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024 ...More heavy rain and severe weather focusing across eastern Oklahoma to the Midwest today will weaken and gradually shift east toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday... ...Next round of mountain snow and wind will quickly overspread into the Pacific Northwest today, across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, and then into the central Rockies by Tuesday night... ...Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen which is forecast to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday morning... ...Above average temperatures approaching record levels will build across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast... The ongoing active weather system over the south-central U.S. will bring another day of heavy rain and severe weather across the south-central U.S., with the heaviest rainfall expected to impact eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, much of Missouri and into Illinois. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms centered around eastern Oklahoma and into adjacent areas where damaging winds, large hail, as well as a few tornadoes are mostly likely. More energy ejecting from the upper-level trough currently spreading mountain snow across the Intermountain West will consolidate a low pressure system over the south-central Plains today. This system is forecast to push a cold front farther eastward by tonight, ending the heavy rain threat across Oklahoma but then shifting the heavy rain and severe weather threats into the Arklatex region, Mid-Mississippi Valley and across Midwest on Tuesday. As the low pressure center tracks quickly northeastward across the Great Lakes Tuesday night, the trailing cold front will weaken with time, leading to a lessening threat of heavy rain and severe weather farther east across the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Nevertheless, moderate to locally heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected to reach into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With another piece of energy associated the upper trough beginning to exit the Southwest into the Plains today, mountain snow over central Colorado will slowly taper off while mountain snow over New Mexico will linger into this evening. A rather strong low pressure system from the Pacific Ocean will quickly spread the next round of coastal rain into the Pacific Northwest today followed by a good dose of mountain snow farther inland along with windy conditions. The mountain snow will then reach into the northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday morning as the low pressure system redevelops over the northern High Plains. The greatest chances (>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in a 24-hour period is forecast over the northern Cascades on Monday and northern Rockies on Tuesday. Be sure to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout these elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather forecast. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the snow is forecast to blanket the central Rockies into the central High Plains behind a polar front. Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi River through early next week, besides rain chances throughout parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to slide eastward and off the New England coastline, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western periphery. This will support widespread above average high temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic early this week, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When compared to early November climatology, the Midwest and upper Ohio Valley is expected to experience temperatures well above average. The anomalous warmth will eventually spread to the East Coast by Election Day as showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front continue throughout the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. In the mean time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC 18) in the southwestern Caribbean. This system has the potential to bring increasing winds with the arrival of outer rainbands especially for the Florida Keys by Wednesday morning as the cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength by then. Please refer to the NHC for the latest advisory on PTC 18. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php