Lexington Weather

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 030539
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1239 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of dry weather is expected through early next
week. After a brief moderation in temperatures Wednesday, 
cold/blustery weather will return Thursday and continue into the
weekend although not to the magnitude of what occurred today. A
significant moderation in temperatures is anticipated early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
An area of mid and high clouds moving into Western MA and CT
will spread across the region overnight. Radar reports are
mostly nil. An area of snow showers over the Adirondaks, but the
upper flow should carry this over VT/NH. ith surface dew points
in the single numbers and below zero, the air over Srn New
England will be too dry for any significant showers to reach the
surface.

So expect a dry night with increasing sky cover. A cold night
with temperatures reaching the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* Much milder Wednesday with considerably less wind than today

Wednesday...

What a difference 24 hours can make sometimes especially in
early March. The progressive pattern will allow 925T to moderate
to near 0C by late Wednesday afternoon. This coupled with 
westerly flow will allow afternoon highs to recover well into 
the 40s to perhaps near 50 across RI/SE MA. There will be a bit 
of a breeze with some westerly gusts between 20 and 25 mph, but 
certainly nothing like today. That coupled with temperatures 
around 20 degrees milder will make quite a difference for
outdoor activities by Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night...

Another cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, but
the magnitude of the cold air will be nothing like today. Other
than perhaps a brief flurry or two in the Berks, dry weather
will prevail given the lack of moisture/forcing. Low temps by
daybreak Thursday will mainly be in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights

* Below average temperatures move in for late week and into the 
  weekend. Average high temperatures are in the low 40s for this 
  time of year in our major metropolitan areas. 

* Little to no chance of precipitation over the long term forecast 
  period.

* Model consensus that a warm up is on the way early next week, but 
  the exact timing is still up in the air. 

Thursday Night and Friday... 

A more seasonable Thursday, with highs in the low 40s south and east 
and upper 30s north and west, before a cold front slides through the 
region. Any precipitable water present in the column, already on the 
order of hundredths, will be met by extremely low dewpoints, in the 
single digits, making the possibility of precipitation extremely low.

925mb winds Thursday evening suggest there is a possibility for gusty 
winds to return to the region, especially across the maritimes, the 
high elevations of the Worcester hills and the downslope of the
Berkshires. CONSAll guidance was blended into the NBM data to 
enhance the wind potential across the maritimes. 

On Friday, temperatures take a dive back into the 30s. Low 
temperatures on both Thursday and Friday night will bottom out in 
the 10s north and west to the mid 20s south and east across the Cape 
and Islands. 

Saturday and Sunday...

Sunny skies will prevail for the weekend, and temperatures will 
remain below average, topping out in the 30s, slightly warmer on 
Sunday compared to Saturday. Widespread 10s north and west and 20s 
south and east for lows. Light W/NW winds except across the 
maritimes where stronger gusts are likely on Saturday.

Early next week...

Guidance suggests that we return to seasonable temperatures on 
Monday, with highs in upper 30s to low 40s across the area. Beyond 
Monday, there is a strong signal that both the NAO and AO 
teleconnections will trend positive. Given that the end of the 
forecast period is still five days away, there is good model 
consensus that the region will warm to the mid to upper 50s starting 
next Tuesday. 

The next shot for considerable precipitation is after our forecast 
period ends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Early morning...High Confidence.  

VFR. Area of 10,000 foot cloud bases will cross southern New
England from 2 AM to 8 AM.

Today through Thursday...High Confidence.

VFR. West southwest winds gusting to 20 kt today diminish
tonight, then turn from the northwest on Thursday. Northwest
winds gust to 25 kt Thursday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Wednesday night...High Confidence.

Winds continue to diminish as low pressure moves farther off to
the northeast. Winds have diminished below 34 kt on the inner
waters, so gale headlines have been dropped in favor of Small 
Craft Advisories. Gales continue on the outer waters overnight.

Westerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots are anticipated on 
Wednesday with the strongest of the winds across the southern 
waters. Winds shift to the NW Wed night behind another cold 
front. Small craft headlines will be needed Wed into Wed night 
for many waters once the Gale Headlines expire this evening.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas. 

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
freezing spray. 

Friday through Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of freezing spray. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for 
     ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230-
     231-236-251.
     Gale Warning until 3 AM EST early this morning for ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/KS
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WTB/Frank/KS
MARINE...WTB/Frank/KS