Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 061822
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
222 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly sunny, cool and blustery Monday. Could see a few
rain/snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.
- Later in the week looks to remain mostly dry with temperatures
on the rise.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly sunny, cool and blustery Monday. Could
see a few rain/snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.
A upper-level trough moving through the Great Lakes and into
New England will bring a cold pool aloft, with 850mb
temperatures around -5C and 500mb temperatures below -30C. A
shortwave then moves through, which would help support some
light snow showers possibly developing and mixing in with rain
showers, especially over the higher elevation areas. Guidance
has trended towards a later start, perhaps after midnight/early
Tuesday morning instead of Monday... though we can't rule out a
stray shower developing today in the higher elevations. Surface
temperatures will likely hover near or possibly just below
freezing Monday night into Tuesday morning, but they're expected
to make a fast recovery later Tuesday morning... into the low
to mid 40s. A secondary shortwave moves through later Tuesday
and may allow showers to linger through part of the day, but not
expecting much in the way of rain totals.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Later in the week looks to remain mostly dry with
temperatures on the rise.
Drier conditions and southwesterly flow are expected to return
to southern New England as a large high pressure system moves
into the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday. Temperatures will
improve throughout the second half of the week as the upper
level trough moves off to the east and a warmer airmass advects
into the region. Expecting highs to rebound into the 50s by
Thursday and further improve into the 60s by Friday. However,
some uncertainty remains towards the end of the week as some
ensemble guidance hints at another backdoor front moving in
Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure moving east from just
to our north could encourage onshore flow early Sunday morning
and possibly continuing through the day before it shifts further
offshore and winds return to SW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18 TAF Update...
Today: High confidence.
VFR. WNW winds 10-20 kts and gusts 20-30 kt. Highest gusts for
higher elevations and Cape/Island terminals.
Tonight: High confidence overall, moderate on possible precip
chances.
SCT-OVC cloud decks return overnight, VFR mostly. There is still
uncertainty on the timing and coverage/chances of showers
tonight. There is potential for brief -SHRASN after 06Z with
pockets of brief MVFR possible. Gusts diminish by 01Z with W
winds less than 10 kts. Winds become light and variable after
06Z.
Tuesday: Moderate confidence.
VFR with periods of MVFR ceilings improving to VFR mid
afternoon/early evening. Scattered, brief -RASN showers Tuesday
AM through early afternoon. Timing and coveraging lower
confidence. Winds will shift through the day as a surface low
passes through. Light SE flow to start, eventually shifting to
NW from west to east in the afternoon. NW winds will trend
stronger 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts.
Tuesday Night: High confidence.
VFR conditions. NW winds 8-12 kts, a few gusts up to 20 kts
possible.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.
Few -RASN showers early after 09Z through 12Z, messaged as a
PROB30 due to uncertainty in model guidance and low coverage of
SH. Probabilities for scattered showers increase more toward
12Z, so included in TAF for -SHRASN through the afternoon.
Showers will likely be brief in nature with MVFR ceilings. SE
winds in the early AM shift to E/ENE by noon, shifting N late
in afternoon.
KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
SCAs continue through most of today with seas at or above 5 ft
across most waters and SW winds gusting 25-30 kts. Guidance has
lowered on wind speeds tonight into Tuesday morning, so elected
to allow SCAs to expire later this afternoon.
Seas remain below 5 ft through Tuesday, but some northwesterly
wind gusts may approach SCA levels Tuesday evening across the
southern waters ahead of an approaching high pressure system.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...Mensch
MARINE...McMinn
Meta data:
ID: 86a0cb89-9c8c-404c-85da-d7ed0d27856a
Link:
https://api.weather.gov/products/86a0cb89-9c8c-404c-85da-d7ed0d27856a
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX