Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

28°F

2/14/2026 6:07am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 27.7°F / -2.4°C
Dew Point: 17.1°F
Relative Humidity: 64%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.98 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 121708
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1208 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry today with the exception of a few light snow 
  showers for the outer Cape, potentially brushing Cape Ann and 
  Nantucket this morning. 

- Moisture-starved system could bring scattered snow showers 
  late Friday night into early Saturday morning. 

- Attention turns to a potential coastal storm for late Sunday 
  night into Monday, but forecast confidence remains low due 
  track uncertainty. 

- Return of seasonable temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry today with the exception of a few light 
snow showers for the outer Cape, potentially brushing Cape Ann and 
Nantucket this morning.

An inverted trough tied to a departed surface low shifts south 
across the southern New England coastal waters this morning. This 
will bring enough forcing for lift to support a period of snow 
showers. Widespread showers are not expected as the better forcing 
will be offshore; however, this will favor a brush along outer Cape 
Cod with potentially a quick brush across Cape Ann and perhaps 
Nantucket. Model soundings show weak lift and limited moisture 
in the dendritic growth zone equating more to light 
snow/flurries within these showers. Any accumulation will be 
light with HREF means barely showing any accumulation amongst 
higher-res guidance. Trace to a few tenths is more likely.

A modest pressure gradient stays intact today support NW winds with 
gusts around 20 mph. Cooler temperatures aloft will keep highs a few 
degrees cooler from Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 30s. 

Quiet day Friday with high pressure subtly building in from the 
southwest. This will keep conditions dry during the day with near-
seasonable temperatures. Winds trend lighter than the last few days 
as the pressure gradient relaxes more. 


KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture-starved system could bring scattered snow 
showers late Friday night into early Saturday morning. 

Upper-level low and northern-stream shortwave crosses New England 
late Friday night into Saturday morning, brings a low (<30%) 
probability of scattered snow showers. This is a moisture-starved 
system with PWATs below climatological norms, QPF is limited to a 
few hundredths of an inch, minor accumulations of a tenth or two of 
snow remains possible. No impacts are anticipated. Otherwise dry 
conditions Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Both days brings highs in 
the mid-30s to 40 degrees. Nighttime lows Saturday night in the 
upper teens to low-20s, Sunday night a few degrees warmer in the low 
to mid-20s. 

 
Key Message 3...Attention turns to a potential coastal storm for 
late Sunday night into Monday, but forecast confidence remains low 
due track uncertainty. 

Looking ahead, guidance continues to signal for a robust mid-level 
shortwave to cross the Texas panhandle with development of an area 
of low pressure near the Red River Basin by Saturday afternoon. 
Where this feature moves toward is uncertain. The last few days have 
brought this surface low across the deep south and exiting near the 
coast of the Carolinas late Sunday night. Confidence in this system 
moving towards southern New England remains low. That being said, we 
cannot jump on to any given deterministic model run. It's a bit of 
model whiplash. It would be good to lean on ensemble guidance given 
the time frame. Guidance shows a northern-stream shortwave ejecting 
out of the Great Lakes region with subtle mid-level troughing Sunday 
night. Thinking this will keep the southern-stream energy offshore, 
which is being supported by the ensembles (GFS and Canadian). Cannot 
discredit the outlier, ECMWF ENS, southern and northern-stream 
energy phasing south of New England. A small number of the 
individual members bring the surface low very close to our region, 
which would mean greater impacts. Even with an out to sea path, 
there is potential for light snow with the passage of the northern-
stream shortwave. Still, there is pounds of time to watch. For now, 
kept with lower-end PoPs for late Sunday night into Monday. Stay 
tuned! 

Key Message 4...Return of seasonable temperatures next week.

Next week does feature warmer than typical temperatures for middle 
part of February, as highlighted by CPC's outlook between the 17th 
and the 21st. Signaling that temperatures are "likely above" what is 
the climatological norm. This doesn't mean excessive warmth, rather 
that the probability of the daily average temperature over the 
course of this period is leaning warmer than average. An early 
assessment, highs top out in the low to mid-40s with nighttime lows 
in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon through Saturday...High confidence.

VFR conditions persist right through Sat afternoon except perhaps
brief marginal MVFR conditions late Fri night/Sat am in a few 
spot flurries/snow showers. Winds generally from the WNW at
sustained speeds of less than 15 knots that will decouple in
some of the typical locations during the overnight/early 
morning hours.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Monday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. 

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN.

Washingtons Birthday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA,
chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Thursday through Friday...High Confidence.

Low pressure south of the Maritimes will swing an inverted trough 
over the coastal waters early this morning, could trigger scattered 
snow showers. Toward daybreak areas of freezing spray are likely, 
especially the nearshore waters of MA and RI. Marginal small craft 
conditions continues through tonight, mainly for the outer waters. 
These conditions will lead to potential freezing spray again Friday 
morning. Seas and winds fall below advisory criteria before daybreak 
Friday.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, chance of
snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Washingtons Birthday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow, patchy fog.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for 
     ANZ230>237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch