Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

15°F

2/8/2026 6:12pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 14.7°F / -9.6°C
Dew Point: 0.7°F
Relative Humidity: 53%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 4 mph
Barometer: 29.99 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 031107
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
607 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing in dangerously cold wind chills, strong 
wind gusts and heavy freezing spray over the waters this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry through Thu with very cold nights. Seasonable 
  afternoon temps today then trending colder Wed & Thu.

- More active Friday into the weekend. Chance for dangerously
  cold wind chills this weekend along with strong winds and
  heavy freezing spray over the waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Mainly dry through Thu with very cold nights.
Seasonable afternoon temps today then trending colder Wed & 
Thu.

Overall a quiet weather pattern for the next few days ahead. 
One potent shortwave and upper low passes well to the north 
tonight into Wed with a cold front passage. Then a second 
shortwave moves through on Thu. These will pass with little 
fanfare as moisture is very limited. Just some increased cloud 
cover tonight and perhaps on Thu but otherwise dry weather.

Temps today should be similar to what was observed yesterday as
there is very little change in low level temps, so generally 
30-35F. Then it trends colder Wed into Thu behind northern 
stream trough passage and cold front as 925 mb temps cool. Very 
cold nights expected through Thu night with lows single numbers 
and teens, but some below zero readings Thu night in the colder 
locations. Fortunately, the nighttime wind won't be much of an 
issue.

Key Message 2...More active Friday into the weekend. Chance for
dangerously cold wind chills this weekend along with strong 
winds and heavy freezing spray over the waters. 

A generally quiet week ends with a passing Alberta clipper and its 
strong arctic front passing through the region. As the previous 
forecast noted, this is expected to be a moisture-starved system 
that will push through quickly, which will limit any snowfall totals 
that accumulate. Generally, a coating to an inch can be expected, 
with the greater chance for an inch mainly along the eastern 
coastline as ocean effect showers may linger through the day 
Saturday. 

An arctic front moves through southern New England, leaving what may 
be the coldest wind chills we've seen this season in its wake. The 
general trend has not changed significantly; a low is expected to 
deepen over the Maritimes and southern New England will be caught in 
the tightening pressure gradient as high pressure remains towards 
the Great Lakes. Gale-force winds are a possibility over the 
waters, and winds could possibly climb into storm force 
criteria. Those of us on land will also likely see elevated
winds that will only make it feel even colder. Temperatures 
aloft sink to around -25C at 925 mb Saturday night, which when 
combined with the winds, it could end up feeling like -30F in 
parts of the Berkshires and between -20F and -10F elsewhere. 
Ensemble guidance continues to center the higher probabilities 
for wind chills below -25F over the Berkshires and the higher 
elevations of central MA. NAEFS guidance also indicates low 
level temperatures reaching 2 to 3 standard deviations below 
normal. Bottom line, it will very likely be dangerously cold and
windy this weekend, especially heading into Sunday morning.

With the elevated winds and very cold temperatures, confidence is 
increasing in the chance for heavy freezing spray over the waters 
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...High confidence.

No significant changes from previous forecast.

VFR through Wednesday. SCT-BKN cigs 5-7k ft developing this 
afternoon and evening. Light NW wind becoming SW 5-10 kt after 
18z, then SW-W wind 4-8 kt tonight. NW wind 10-20 kt developing 
Wed. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: VFR. 

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SN.

Saturday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.
Slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday...High confidence.

Winds below SCA through the period. NW winds becoming W 10-15 kt 
this afternoon and evening, then NW gusts to 20 kt developing 
Wed. 5 ft seas over outer waters will subside to 3 ft this 
afternoon.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of snow, freezing spray. 

Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Freezing spray, chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-
     254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ251-
     256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJC/Hrencecin
AVIATION...KJC/Hrencecin
MARINE...KJC