Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

32°F

2/22/2026 7:53pm

Lexington Conditions: Light snow, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 31.6°F / -0.2°C
Dew Point: 29.7°F
Relative Humidity: 92%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 2 mph
Barometer: 29.94 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 4 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Blizzard Warning
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 212016
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
316 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Given increased confidence in a high-impact winter storm, a Blizzard 
Warning has been issued for all of RI and eastern MA, including 
Boston and Providence. All other Winter Storm Watches have been 
converted to Winter Storm Warnings, except at Nantucket, where a 
Winter Storm Watch continues, given the uncertainty of rain mixing 
with the snow at times. Greatest impacts are expected in RI and 
eastern MA, with highest snow totals and strongest winds. 

A High Wind Warning has been posted for Nantucket Sunday night into 
Monday night. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A powerful winter storm brings significant impacts to much of
  the region Sunday night into Monday, with heavy snowfall, 
  strong winds and blizzard conditions to RI and eastern MA. 

- A powerful coastal storm will bring minor to moderate coastal
  flooding during the late Sunday night/early Monday morning
  high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will be from
  Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A powerful winter storm will impact SNE with heavy 
snow, strong winds, blizzard conditions and coastal flooding Sunday 
night into Monday. Here are specific details - 

Timing: light snow/flurries will develop Sunday afternoon across 
CT/RI/MA, however the accumulating snow will begin late Sunday/Sun 
evening. Then the heaviest snow will occur from late Sunday night 
into Monday afternoon. Very strong forcing for ascent results in 
bomogenesis, with multiple model guidance indicating the cyclone 
will intensify to sub 970mb as it crosses near the 40N/70W benchmark 
Monday! Model cross sections and soundings have very strong lift in 
the DGZ along with steep lapse rates, yielding bands of very heavy 
snow late Sunday night into Monday. The 12z HREF has mean hourly 
snowfall rates of 3+ inches around 12z Monday over RI and southeast 
MA! Given the magnitude of the lift and instability, low prob of 
thundersnow. Intensity of the snow should slacken late in the day 
Monday and especially Monday evening. 

Snow amounts: all model guidance has at least an inch of qpf across 
RI and southeast MA, with some of the guidance over 2 inches in this 
region. Thus, very high confidence in at least a foot of snow across 
RI and southeast MA, with potentially up to 2 feet if these higher 
scenarios verify. Farther west into CT and western-central MA, some 
uncertainty how far northwest this heavy qpf rotates. Nonetheless, 
high confidence for 8-15 inches for CT and western-central MA, 
therefore Winter Storm Watches have been converted to warnings. 
Depending on the exact track of the low, rain may mix in a times
across Nantucket. Therefore, some uncertainty on 6+ inches 
here. Hence, we held with the Winter Storm Watch. This will be a
heavy/wet snow especially across RI and southeast MA. 

Strong to Damaging Winds: a very strong low level NE jet up to 80 kt 
will traverse RI and eastern MA. Model soundings from both the NAM 
and GFS support gusts up to 45-55 mph, but as high as 70 mph 
possible across Cape Cod and the Islands! These wind speeds combined 
with the heavy snowfall rates will create white out conditions at 
times, hence a blizzard warning has been issued for RI and eastern 
MA. If the low trends farther west, blizzard warnings may need to be 
expanded into the Worcester Hills. Also, the combination of strong 
winds and heavy wet snow will yield the possibility of power outages 
across RI and eastern MA. For Nantucket, issued a high wind warning, 
as model soundings and cross sections have 70 kt of wind 
aloft extending downward to 500 ft! 

Impacts: Heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected from roughly 
late Sunday night/early Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Travel 
will be nearly impossible, with snowfall rates 2-4" per hour at 
times during this period. Also, heavy wet snow will combine with 
strong winds, yielding the potential for power outages across RI and 
eastern MA.  

KEY MESSAGE 2...Coastal Flooding

A storm surge of 2-3' at the time of high tide early Monday morning 
(2AM-5AM) will likely yield moderate coastal flooding from Plymouth 
county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. Therefore a coastal 
flood warning has been issued for this portion of the coastline. 
Farther northward from Boston to the NH border, there is more 
uncertainty, with a higher probability of minor flooding likely. 
Therefore, we held with a coastal flood watch there. The greatest 
storm surge (up to 4 ft) appears to occur during low tide Monday (9-
10AM). However, there could be enough storm surge for minor coastal 
flooding during the late day high tide (3-6pm). Although, given the 
astro tide is lower and winds will be more northerly, only expecting 
minor flooding. Nonetheless, a coastal flood watch remains in effect 
for this second tide Monday to account for any storm track changes, 
including timing. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate confidence.

CIGS gradually improve to MVFR/VFR late morning to early
afternoon. Snow showers may linger into the afternoon 
esspically across western MA/CT, with light accumulations 
expected 

Tonight and Sunday...Moderate confidence.

Mainly MVFR, with brief improvement to VFR overnight but
becoming MVFR again Sunday morning. Winds turn light northerly
this evening and turn back light NE Sunday. There may be a few
snow showers across western MA and CT this evening, however,
confidence is low

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MVFR with NE winds this afternoon, turning N this evening. CIGS
should improve to VFR but remaining around a SCT030. Winds turn
back to the NE Sunday morning which will bring the MVFR cloud
deck back onshore.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MVFR with periods of VFR through much of the TAF period. There
could be some light snow showers/flurries this evening into
tonight. MVFR sticks around on Sunday. Snow ahead of the next
system will begin just before 00z Monday.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts up to 55 kt. SN, areas FG.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Chance SN.

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN,
chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
RA, chance SN.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tranquil weather tonight, with a ridge of high pressure over the 
waters. Then a very powerful storm develops off the Mid Atlc coast 
Sunday, rapidly intensifying Sunday night and Monday into a 
dangerous storm, as it moves near the 40N/70W benchmark. This storm 
will be accompanied by very strong winds up to 60 kt and seas 15-25 
ft across the RI and MA waters. Heavy snow will reduce vsby to near 
zero at times Sunday night and Monday. The storm exits into the 
maritimes Monday night, with improving weather conditions Tuesday 
and beyond. 

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up 
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 28 ft. Chance of snow. Local 
visibility 1 nm or less.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of freezing spray. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for 
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for 
     MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for 
     MAZ007-013>023.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday 
     morning for MAZ007-015-016.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for MAZ019-
     022>024.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday 
     morning for MAZ024.
     High Wind Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for 
     MAZ024.
RI...Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for 
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for 
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nocera
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Nocera