Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

49°F

3/8/2026 4:06am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 48.6°F / 9.2°C
Dew Point: 47.5°F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.65 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 022344
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
644 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Winter Weather Advisories posted for Tuesday afternoon to
Wednesday morning for interior Southern New England for light
accretion of icing and minor snow and sleet accumulation.
There is also increasing confidence on a period of a wintry mix
Thursday night into Friday across northern MA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain brings slippery
  roads to interior Southern New England Tue afternoon and
  evening; brief wet snow changes to plain rain and minimal to
  nil impact for the MA/RI coastal plain.

- Dry and very pleasant weather arrives Wednesday, feeling mild
  with March sunshine, light winds and highs in the upper 40s to
  lower 50s.

- A period of wintry precip remains possible Thu night into
  early Fri.

- Pattern change towards milder weather this weekend and
  potentially warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

215 PM Update:

KEY MESSAGE 1...Wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain brings 
slippery roads to interior Southern New England Tue afternoon and 
evening; brief wet snow changes to plain rain and minimal to nil 
impact for the MA/RI coastal plain.

Quasi-stationary frontal boundary lying across the OH Valley and mid-
Atlantic Piedmont region will lift northward on Tue, spreading 
clouds and warm-frontal precipitation northward into Southern New 
England Tue starting mainly during the early to mid-afternoon hours. 
This precip will be falling into a retreating modified-Arctic 
airmass coming out of another chilly night tonight. However the 
combination of onshore/east flow and associated warming surface 
temps along the coastal plain to go along with limited surface 
heating before turning overcast during the morning hours could 
offset evaporative/wet-bulb cooling until precip arrives. Given the 
now-delayed arrival of precip and questions on how soon arrival of 
clouds come in, how cold surface temps could still prove to be a 
challenge; utilized some of the colder 2-m temps given the potential 
for wet-bulbing which model-blended solutions tend to wash out or 
not resolve as well.   

We still expect a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain in interior 
Southern New England during the afternoon and evening hours where 
winter weather advisories have been posted from Tue noontime til 
early Wed morning. The main impact in those areas is from icing, 
with up to a tenth of an inch of ice accretion, and up to an inch of 
combined snow/sleet accumulation at outset. It is somewhat
debatable/uncertain how much road impact there may be during 
the Tue afternoon drive, and that's especially the case if cloud
cover is slow to arrive and ends up permitting several hours of
strong early-March sun to warm up pavement; feel more confident
in at least slippery road conditions developing by the early 
evening hours, as temps hover or slightly cool on light NE 
drainage winds which will help sustain frozen p-types in 
interior Southern New England until precip comes to an end Wed 
morning. 

In the coastal plain, a brief period of wet snow during the 
early to mid afternoon Tuesday should mix over with rain with 
temps in the mid 30s, then change to a plain rain for the 
remainder of the evening where adverse road impacts should prove
minimal. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and very pleasant weather arrives 
Wednesday, feeling mild with March sunshine, light winds and 
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short wave ridging in fast flow aloft advects across SNE, providing 
a very pleasant, dry Wed across SNE. Mild with highs in the upper 
40s and low 50s. It feel even milder given light winds and full 
March sunshine.  

KEY MESSAGE 3...A period of wintry precip remains possible Thu 
night into early Fri.

Fast, wavy zonal upper air pattern yields the next precip event for 
SNE Thu night into Fri. 1040 mb anticyclone over southeast Quebec 
into the Maritimes will yield a wedge of shallow cold air into SNE. 
This will support the risk of a wintry mix this period, with highest 
probs of an icy mix across northern MA. It's possible this shallow 
cold air could bleed farther south, with a low risk of a wintry mix 
near or into the I-95 corridor. Just too early to tell, this needs 
to be watched. Not a major winter event, but it only takes a small 
amount of ice to impact travel. Stay tuned. 

KEY MESSAGE 4...Pattern change toward milder weather this 
weekend and potentially warmer next week.

Good multi-model agreement on a pattern change beginning this 
weekend and continuing into next week, with a southeast/western 
Atlantic ridge. This will promote SW up the eastern seaboard into 
SNE, with temps rising into the low 50s Saturday, and possibly low 
60s away from the south coast Sunday and Monday. Dew pts will be 
rising into the low 50s then, so definitely a mild feel to the 
airmass, along with accelerating the erosion of the the snow pack 
with dew pts rising into the 50s and SW winds 10-15 mph providing 
some mixing around the snowcover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Light/calm winds.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...High confidence in trends with
moderate confidence in timing.

MVFR-IFR conditions overspread the region from southwest to
northeast in the 15z to 20z timeframe as precipitation
overspreads the region. Ptype initially mainly snow but a quick
change to rain from south to north in the 21z to 01z along the 
coastal plain with perhaps a brief period of sleet during the 
transition. However...across portions of the interior temps near
or just below freezing will result in snow/sleet transitioning 
to pockets of light freezing rain by early Tue evening. IFR to 
LIFR conditions expected Tue night with periods of rain along 
the coastal plain with light freezing rain across parts of the 
interior. Winds generally less than 10 knots Tue into Tue night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Snow arrives near of
just after 19z and flips to rain by 23z with perhaps a brief 
period of sleet during the transition. Little impact on runways 
expected. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Snow arrives around
16z/17z and flips to light rain/freezing rain by 22z/23z with
perhaps a period of sleet during the transition. Temps Tue
evening will be near freezing...so impacts may be somewhat 
limited on runways but some icing can not be ruled out. 

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance RA, slight chance FZRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, FZRA likely.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely, FZRA
likely.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance RA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory thresholds
through at least Tuesday afternoon, with south to southeast
winds around 10-15 kt. Seas may begin to build late Tuesday
night into Wednesday to around 4-6 ft on the southeast outer
waters, which could prompt small craft advisories. Reduced
visibilities possible in snow to rain Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain, slight chance of freezing rain. 

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain. 

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain likely. 

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. 

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 7 AM EST 
     Wednesday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 7 AM EST 
     Wednesday for MAZ002>012-014-026.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 7 AM EST 
     Wednesday for RIZ001.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Loconto/Nocera
AVIATION...Frank/Loconto/Nocera
MARINE...Loconto/Nocera