Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 020000
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few scattered showers possible both this afternoon and
Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday begins a pattern of steadily
climbing temperatures each day through the week.
- Forecast confidence decreases for late this week. Conditions
more likely to be dry and warm, but we continue to monitor the
potential for an offshore system to bring showers this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few scattered showers possible both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday begins a pattern of
steadily climbing temperatures each day through the week.
The synoptic pattern continues to feature a broad upper trough
lingering over the Northeast with the associated cold pool
leading to widespread diurnal cloudcover over inland areas,
and even some decent pop-up shower coverage over western and
central SNE. This activity will continue through sundown when
skies quickly clear setting up for a good radiational cooling
night. Given building surface high pressure leading to calm
winds and clear skies overnight, the forecast has been trended
toward the cooler MOS guidance. We're expecting lows in the
upper 30s/low 40s in the typical cold spots, closer to 50 in the
urban centers.
Tuesday features a transition from the broader trough we've
dealt with the last several days to a building mid level
ridge. As such, we expect warm advection and clear to mostly
sunny skies to lead to highs well into the 70s. That being said,
a weak disturbance rounding the base of the exiting trough will
be enough to once again kick off a few diurnal showers and even
a thunderstorm given a few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE.
Expect the most sun in the morning before low level diurnal
clouds and some mid/high clouds filter in in the afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast confidence decreases for late this
week. Conditions more likely to be dry and warm, but we
continue to monitor the potential for an offshore system to
bring showers this weekend.
Mid level omega block expected to start breaking down Wednesday
into Friday. The mid level flow at that point should remain
rather amplified for an early meteorological summer pattern.
There are significant timing differences in how short this
breakdown process will be, which is not all that unusual. These
details matter, and will take a more probabilistic approach with
the forecast from Wednesday on.
Overall, it appears that southern New England finally edges more
into the higher heights part of the block around Wednesday, with
a surface high pressure over the Great Lakes. Expecting dry
weather with warmer conditions Wednesday into Friday.
The forecast this weekend into early next week is more
problematic. Much will depend on how quickly the aforementioned
omega block breaks. At this time, there is a chance that we
remain dry for most of the day Saturday. However, there are also
enough signals where a mention of scattered afternoon showers
is warranted. A low pressure passing by along a nearly stalled
front for Sunday is a more favorable pattern for showers. This
front could linger into Monday, continuing the risk for some
showers.
Temperatures should start to lower Saturday, but the cooldown is
anticipated to be more noticeable Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. Light to calm winds.
Tuesday...High Confidence.
VFR. NE 5-10 kts for inland terminals with sea breezes along the
coast.
KBOS...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday Night...High Confidence.
NE winds 5-10 kts this afternoon become light and variable
overnight. Winds then increase Tuesday, 5-10 kts out of the
SW. Seas generally 3-4 ft this afternoon will continue to
decrease becoming 1-3 ft overnight and continuing through at
least mid week.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Belk/BW
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/BW
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ID: 5a6d011b-56ef-4259-9f48-3f388b88c850
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Index:
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