Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 301921 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 321 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Drying out today and warmer. Near record high temperatures are expected Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Nothing more than a few brief showers are expected with this cold frontal passage early Friday and the rest of the day should still be mild and breezy. Warm and windy on Friday before temperatures fall back into the 50s behind a cold front for the weekend. General warming trend begins again next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Most of the clouds from earlier today have moved out of the area and some higher ones have taken their place. Temperatures have reached the lower 70s in a couple areas in southern New England, and with minimal cooling and increased moisture tonight, lows are expected to be in the 50s. Winds from the SSW are expected to persist tonight up to 10 kt. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The ridge axis shifts east on Thursday and SW flow prevails, which will keep temperatures from cooling much at all. Near-record to record temperatures are possible tomorrow, especially in the CT and Merrimack Valleys, which are projected to hit over 80 degrees. At last check, 925 mb temperatures are sitting around +19C across various deterministic models for Thursday into Thursday night. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the 50s, which will also keep lows from getting below the mid 50s. Along the South Coast, lows may only get to the low 60s. Rain chances Friday morning continue to diminish. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Points... * Still very mild & breezy Fri with highs in the middle-upper 70s * Dry but cooler/seasonable temps return this weekend * A round of scattered showers possible sometime Mon and/or Tue * Unseasonable warmth may return briefly by the middle of next week Details... Friday... A shortwave/cold front will cross the region Fri morning. This front is moisture starved...so nothing more than a few brief spot showers if anything. Otherwise...it will take sometime for the cooler air to work in from the west. This coupled with a very mild start and plenty of sunshine...should see highs reach the middle to upper 70s. It will also be quite breezy as the atmosphere will be well mixed...so expect westerly wind gusts of 25-30 mph with a few gusts up to 35 mph possible. This Weekend... Cooler/seasonable temps will return this weekend behind Friday/s cold front. Dry weather with high temps mainly in the 50s are on tap for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west. It should be chilly at night...particularly Sat night when many outlying locations will drop well down into the 20s with ideal radiational cooling conditions expected. Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday... Forecast confidence drops during the first half of the next work week. Anomalous ridging will build back across the southeast and into parts of the mid-Atlantic. At the same time...a backdoor front may try to temporarily work southward. This may result in a chilly day for parts of the region Mon...but that will depend upon where this backdoor front sets up. There also might be a round of scattered showers sometime Mon and/or Tue along this frontal boundary....but not expecting a significant rainfall event. The guidance does appear to want to move this boundary back north of our region as a warm front by Tue or Wed...but timing details are rather uncertain. If this occurs high temps may soar well into the 70s by Wed. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Tonight: Moderate confidence. VFR with some MVFR leftover at some of the interior terminals. Occasional IFR, but not expected to last long. Ceilings should continue to scatter out into tonight. Could see some lower stratus tonight across the Cape and Islands that could bring ceilings down to IFR once again. Confidence in those IFR ceilings is around 40 percent. SSW winds around 5-10 kt. Thursday: High confidence. VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/ Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: SW winds at 10 kt to 15 kt with seas 2-5 ft with the higher waves in the outer waters. Thursday: Seas decrease to 2-3 ft with continued SW winds at 15-20 kt. A few gusts just below 20 kt also possible. Thursday Night: Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to return with seas up to 7 ft in the outer waters possible. Winds continue to be from the SW but increase to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .FIRE WEATHER... The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. In fact...our biggest concern may be Friday when westerly winds may gust to between 25 and 30 mph with even a few gusts up to 35 mph! We will continue to coordinate Fire Weather products with our state partners. && .CLIMATE... Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 30th BOS: 78F (1918) ORH: 78F (1946) PVD: 79F (1946) BDL: 83F (1946) Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st BOS: 81F (1946) ORH: 79F (1946) PVD: 83F (1946) BDL: 82F (1946) && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 254. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/Hrencecin NEAR TERM...Hrencecin SHORT TERM...Hrencecin LONG TERM...Frank AVIATION...Frank/Hrencecin MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin FIRE WEATHER...Frank CLIMATE...Dooley
Meta data:
ID: 491a5556-5d69-4f70-815d-45a7bc330da5
Link:
https://api.weather.gov/products/491a5556-5d69-4f70-815d-45a7bc330da5
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX