Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

78°F

5/27/2026 8:12pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 78.4°F / 25.8°C
Dew Point: 55.4°F
Relative Humidity: 45%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.63 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231744
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
144 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories extended and expanded into the eastern
outer waters on late Sunday through Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain arrives late Saturday leading to a soggy and cool Sunday
  with much needed rainfall. Cool daytime highs Sunday will 
  rise Sunday night. 

- Wet to start Memorial Day, drying out through the day followed
  by summer-like warmth for the middle of next week before
  trending more seasonable with a few showers to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain arrives late Saturday leading to a soggy and 
cool Sunday with much needed rainfall. Cool daytime highs Sunday 
will rise Sunday night.  

High pressure centered to our north and east will direct cool, 
easterly onshore flow into southern New England today. This 
trajectory with thickening and lowering clouds ahead of a warm front 
will lead to a cool day, topping out in the mid 60s. Fortunately, 
model soundings indicate a good amount of dry air in the low/mid 
levels and this, together with stubborn high pressure will keep the 
rain at bay for much of the region on Saturday. The most likely to 
stay dry all day will be areas RI north and east, with a better 
chance for afternoon or evening rain further west in CT and MA. 

By mid to late afternoon widespread, isentropically forced rainfall 
overspreads western CT/MA slowly expanding  north and east. This is 
the start of a prolonged period of wet weather that continues 
through at least Sunday night. Forcing comes from low/mid level 
convergence and a potent 30-50 kts LLJ acting on an anomolously 
moist airmass (PWATs approaching 1.75"). Expecting rainfall totals 
of 0.5-1" for most of the region, with 1-2" more likely along the 
south coast of RI and MA before all is said and done. Small Craft 
Advisories are in place on Sunday where better mixing over the water 
will lead to wind gusts 25 to 35 mph while over land, gusts of 20 to 
30 mph are more likely. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Wet to start Memorial Day, drying out through the 
day followed by summer-like warmth for the middle of next week 
before trending more seasonable with a few showers to end the week.

The mid level trough axis crosses SNE on Memorial Day ushering in a 
period of drier, zonal flow to later be followed by much more 
amplified flow late week. What it means for the Memorial Day is a 
transition between a very wet low passage on Sunday/Sunday night and 
dry high pressure on Tuesday. While confidence is only moderate at 
this point, ensemble and deterministic guidance would suggest an 
improving forecast through the day; read: best chance of lingering 
showers early in the morning, with decreasing POPs as the day 
progresses. This together with significantly warmer temperatures in 
the low 70s will make Monday more palatable than Sunday for many, 
even if clouds will be slow to clear. 

Models then agree on a warmer and drier period through mid week as 
850 mb temps rise to the 12-13C range meaning we'll be back into the 
80s Tuesday, flirting with the upper 80s by Wednesday. For the back 
half of the week, the previously mentioned return to amplified flow 
introduces more rain chances and cooler periods.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update: 

Through 00z Sunday: High confidence. 

BKN/OVC VFR high clouds for most of the TAFs; exception is BDL
with OVC VFR ceilings to go along with light -RA. E/SE winds
5-10 kt. 

Tonight: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on timing. 

Mainly VFR through midnight/05z, with VFR -RA at BDL continuing.
Rain shield then begins to spread slowly eastward, and as
steadier rains develop, expect categories to deteriorate to
sub-VFR levels. MVFR visby RA with MVFR- IFR ceilings at BDL, 
and deteriorating eastward with onset of light rain 07-10z,
becoming steadier shortly thereafter. SE winds increasing to
around 8-12 kt. 

Sunday: Moderate confidence. 

MVFR to IFR ceilings, steady light to moderate rain with visbys
3-5 SM. Localized downpours mainly for TAFs S/E of I-95 in the 
afternoon. SE winds around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, 
becoming E/ENE for the eastern TAFs in afternoon. 

Sunday Night: Moderate confidence.

MVFR-IFR in steady rain moving off the east coast around 03-06z.
Clearing of steadier rain then brings widespread IFR-LIFR with 
drizzle, mist and fog with light NE winds.

KBOS...High confidence in TAF. VFR, east winds become SE around
10 kt by 00z Sunday. Onset of RA not likely until at least 08z,
becoming a steadier light rain with MVFR more likely after 10z.

KBDL...High confidence in TAF. VFR light -RA prevails thru
03-05z, then becoming steadier with MVFR visbys and ceilings 
becoming MVFR-IFR. SE winds around 5-10 kt.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. 

Tuesday Night: VFR. 

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Saturday winds will be out of the E/SE 5-10 kts except 10-15 kts
on the southern waters. A frontal system will bring enhanced 
southeast winds, building seas, and steady rain for the waters 
this evening through Sunday. Over the southern waters, SE winds
increase to 25-30 kt by tonight, continuing through Sunday. 

Seas 1-4 ft on Saturday build to 6 to 10 ft through Sunday. SCAs
are in effect for Sunday into Sunday night. Rain, some heavy at
times Sunday, could reduce visibility as well.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms. 

Memorial Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for 
     ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for 
     ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for 
     ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday 
     for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Belk/Loconto
MARINE...BW/Nash