Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

40°F
11/4/2024 9:10am 
  • Lexington Conditions: Clear
  • Temperature: 39.7°F / 4.3°CWarmer 6.8°F than last hour.
  • Dew Point: 30.0°FIncreased 2.3°Fsince last hour.
  • Relative Humidity: 68%Decreased 13.0% since last hour.
  • Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
  • Barometer: 30.53 inFalling 0.03  inHg/hr Falling Slowly
  • Visibility: 10 miles
  • Rain Today: 0.00 in
  •   
Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Special Weather Statement
 - SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 300611
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
211 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Rain showers exit by sunrise, then warming up for Wednesday.  
Near record high temperatures are expected Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Nothing more than a few brief showers 
are expected with this cold frontal passage early Friday and the
rest of the day should still be mild and breezy. Warm and windy 
on Friday before temperatures fall back into the 50s behind a 
cold front for the weekend. General warming trend begins again 
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

As expected, warm frontal showers continue to impact portions of 
southern New England with the bulk remaining over eastern MA. As we 
progress further into Wednesday we'll see those showers come to an 
end toward sunrise. This as the low level jet moves offshore and 
surface moisture/dewpoints continue to rise on southerly flow, 
advecting in more warmth and moisture from the south. It sets us up 
for a much warmer day today as the low and mid levels warm; even as 
a low level inversion below 925 mb may limit warming. High 
temperatures will likely reach into the mid 70s. For context, normal 
highs are in the upper 50s in late October. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

Tonight warm W/SW flow continues while dewpoints in the mid 50s will 
limit how cold it can get, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s for 
most (warmer on the south coast). Thursday the peak of the 
anomolous heat arrives as the ridge axis shifts east. Boundary layer 
mixing will be a bit better on Thursday so 925 mb temps also maxing 
out around that time (around +18C) will lead (along with some 
downsloping) to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s! 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Key Points

*Breezy and Warm Friday

*Colder temps return for the weekend behind a cold front

*Warming trend next week

Friday

A cold front and weak shortwave cross the region Friday, but it will 
remain warm with temps still in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture again 
looks limited with the cold frontal passage, and guidance continues 
to dial back on rain chances. Most of the global deterministic 
guidance now pitches a shutout for all of SNE. If any rain falls, it 
will likely be light, well under a tenth of an inch. Winds turn west 
behind the front and become very gusty at 25-35mph.

Saturday and Sunday.

A secondary cold front and reinforcing shot of cold air brings high 
temps back down into the 50s and low temps back down to the 20s and 
30s. Upper-level ridge and surface high pressure build back in, 
keeping dry conditions around and turning skies mostly sunny. Winds 
quickly die down and become light northerly on Saturday, flipping to 
light SSW again on Sunday.

Early to mid next week:

Guidance seems to be in better agreement, bringing rising heights 
and a building upper-level ridge to start the week. This will allow 
temps to slowly rebound, but a back door cold front may stall over 
the region, making the temperatures forecast quite uncertain at this 
time.  A warm front may move through the middle of next week, but it 
will likely not have enough upper-level support to bring any 
substantial rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

This morning: Moderate confidence. 

A warm front brings MVFR ceilings with light SHRA through around
10z. -SHRA will be more widespread and last a bit longer near 
and north of I-90...but many locations will see at least a brief
period of light showers. SE to S winds around 10-15 kt with 
gusts around 20 kt.

Today and tonight: High confidence. 

Improving to VFR from west to east by 17Z. SSW winds around 
5-10 kt. 

Thursday: High confidence. 

VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts. 

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conditions lasts 
into mid morning even as showers move out after 09Z. 

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conditions continue
through 08z.


Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and toight:

Small craft conditions come to an end by the afternoon. SW 
winds 15-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft, which become 4 ft or less for
the evening and overnight.

Thursday: 

SW winds 10-20 kts. Seas 2-4 ft. 

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in 
continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. In 
fact...our biggest concern may be Friday when westerly winds may 
gust to between 25 and 30 mph with even a few gusts up to 35 mph! We 
will continue to coordinate Fire Weather products with our state 
partners.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 30th

BOS: 78F (1918)
ORH: 78F (1946)
PVD: 79F (1946)
BDL: 83F (1946)

Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st

BOS: 81F (1946) 
ORH: 79F (1946) 
PVD: 83F (1946) 
BDL: 82F (1946)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for 
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250-
     254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
FIRE WEATHER...Frank
CLIMATE...Dooley
      

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