Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 300611 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 211 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers exit by sunrise, then warming up for Wednesday. Near record high temperatures are expected Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Nothing more than a few brief showers are expected with this cold frontal passage early Friday and the rest of the day should still be mild and breezy. Warm and windy on Friday before temperatures fall back into the 50s behind a cold front for the weekend. General warming trend begins again next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As expected, warm frontal showers continue to impact portions of southern New England with the bulk remaining over eastern MA. As we progress further into Wednesday we'll see those showers come to an end toward sunrise. This as the low level jet moves offshore and surface moisture/dewpoints continue to rise on southerly flow, advecting in more warmth and moisture from the south. It sets us up for a much warmer day today as the low and mid levels warm; even as a low level inversion below 925 mb may limit warming. High temperatures will likely reach into the mid 70s. For context, normal highs are in the upper 50s in late October. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Tonight warm W/SW flow continues while dewpoints in the mid 50s will limit how cold it can get, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s for most (warmer on the south coast). Thursday the peak of the anomolous heat arrives as the ridge axis shifts east. Boundary layer mixing will be a bit better on Thursday so 925 mb temps also maxing out around that time (around +18C) will lead (along with some downsloping) to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s! && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Points *Breezy and Warm Friday *Colder temps return for the weekend behind a cold front *Warming trend next week Friday A cold front and weak shortwave cross the region Friday, but it will remain warm with temps still in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture again looks limited with the cold frontal passage, and guidance continues to dial back on rain chances. Most of the global deterministic guidance now pitches a shutout for all of SNE. If any rain falls, it will likely be light, well under a tenth of an inch. Winds turn west behind the front and become very gusty at 25-35mph. Saturday and Sunday. A secondary cold front and reinforcing shot of cold air brings high temps back down into the 50s and low temps back down to the 20s and 30s. Upper-level ridge and surface high pressure build back in, keeping dry conditions around and turning skies mostly sunny. Winds quickly die down and become light northerly on Saturday, flipping to light SSW again on Sunday. Early to mid next week: Guidance seems to be in better agreement, bringing rising heights and a building upper-level ridge to start the week. This will allow temps to slowly rebound, but a back door cold front may stall over the region, making the temperatures forecast quite uncertain at this time. A warm front may move through the middle of next week, but it will likely not have enough upper-level support to bring any substantial rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... This morning: Moderate confidence. A warm front brings MVFR ceilings with light SHRA through around 10z. -SHRA will be more widespread and last a bit longer near and north of I-90...but many locations will see at least a brief period of light showers. SE to S winds around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. Today and tonight: High confidence. Improving to VFR from west to east by 17Z. SSW winds around 5-10 kt. Thursday: High confidence. VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conditions lasts into mid morning even as showers move out after 09Z. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conditions continue through 08z. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/ Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and toight: Small craft conditions come to an end by the afternoon. SW winds 15-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft, which become 4 ft or less for the evening and overnight. Thursday: SW winds 10-20 kts. Seas 2-4 ft. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. In fact...our biggest concern may be Friday when westerly winds may gust to between 25 and 30 mph with even a few gusts up to 35 mph! We will continue to coordinate Fire Weather products with our state partners. && .CLIMATE... Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 30th BOS: 78F (1918) ORH: 78F (1946) PVD: 79F (1946) BDL: 83F (1946) Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st BOS: 81F (1946) ORH: 79F (1946) PVD: 83F (1946) BDL: 82F (1946) && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 254. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ255- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW/KP NEAR TERM...BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...KP AVIATION...BW/KP MARINE...BW/KP FIRE WEATHER...Frank CLIMATE...Dooley
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