Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

28°F

2/14/2026 6:15am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 27.7°F / -2.4°C
Dew Point: 17.1°F
Relative Humidity: 64%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.98 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 122347
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
647 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast. The coastal storm threat 
Sunday night into Monday continues to diminish with the track 
likely too far south of southern New England.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil/seasonable high temps Fri/Sat with dry weather
  outside a few brief spot flurries/snow showers possible late
  Fri night/Sat am.

* The coastal storm threat Sunday night into Monday continues to
  diminish with the track likely too far south of southern New 
  England.

* Above normal temperatures for the first half next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Tranquil/seasonable high temps Fri/Sat with dry 
weather outside a few brief spot flurries/snow showers possible late 
Fri night/Sat am.

A ridge of high pressure to our west coupled with the mid-level 
trough axis to our east will result in mainly dry/tranquil weather 
through Sat. A moisture starved shortwave may bring a few brief spot 
flurries/snow showers to the region late Fri night-Sat morning...but 
nothing more than that expected. Otherwise...seasonable highs mainly 
in the 30s Fri and probably upper 30s/near 40 by Sat. Good 
radiational cooling coupled with a deep snowpack will allow for lows 
tonight in the single digits and lower teens in many locations to 
the upper teens to around 20 in the urban heat islands of Boston and 
Providence. Low temps Fri night will be milder with more clouds 
mainly in the teens to between 20 and 25 in the urban centers of 
Boston and Providence.

Key Message 2...The coastal storm threat Sunday night into Monday 
continues to diminish with the track likely too far south of 
southern New England.

Guidance is still indicating a strong mid-level shortwave crossing 
the Texas panhandle this weekend and continuing to track east. The 
northern stream shortwave with decent mid-level troughing moving 
across the Great Lakes and into the northeast may be what helps keep 
this potential storm away from southern New England. Most ensemble 
members across the guidance suites have continued to trend this 
system to the south of southern New England, passing Sunday night 
into Monday. However, a few members within all the ensembles do 
still have this system taking a closer track, exiting offshore of 
Virginia moreso than the Carolinas and south. Deterministic guidance 
does also have this system remaining well to our south and offshore, 
and with a weaker temperature gradient, precipitation may not expand 
very far north from the center of the low. With a few ensemble 
members in each of the suites still indicating a slightly more north 
track that would end up impacting the region, confidence is still 
somewhat low regarding this system's track. Though with the overall 
continuation of the more southern track, we trended PoPs down once 
more for Sunday night into Monday.

Key Message 3...Above normal temps for the first half of next week.

Temperatures continue to improve next week, becoming above normal. 
Temperatures aloft start to approach 0C and exceed 0C early in the 
week into Wednesday and more W to SW flow kicks in over the region 
within that timeframe. Ensembles, namely the GEFS and GEPS, were 
even getting probs of 50F highs up to 20 percent for SE MA Tuesday 
and Wednesday. If we get good SW flow, then we could see this 
actualized. Generally, though, highs in the 40s can be expected for 
next week. Tuesday night and Wednesday night could even see some 
spots remain above freezing.

Ensembles are signaling the chance for another system approaching 
southern New England sometime in the latter half of the week, which 
will be something to monitor in upcoming forecasts. As this event is 
roughly a week out, details are uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Through Saturday...High confidence.

VFR conditions persist right through Sat afternoon except perhaps
brief marginal MVFR conditions late Fri night/Sat am in a few 
spot flurries/snow showers. Winds generally from the WNW at
sustained speeds of less than 15 knots that will decouple in
some of the typical locations during the overnight/early 
morning hours.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. 

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Washingtons Birthday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Saturday...High confidence.

Lingering swell across the outer-waters and NW wind gusts up to 25 
knots continue to diminish through tonight. Otherwise...high 
pressure just to our west will keep winds/seas below small craft 
advisory thresholds Fri and Sat.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow showers. 

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow. 

Washingtons Birthday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of
rain, slight chance of snow. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ231-251-
     256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/Hrencecin
AVIATION...Frank/Hrencecin/Mensch
MARINE...Frank/Hrencecin