Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

47°F

4/18/2024 4:06am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 46.9°F / 8.3°C
Dew Point: 36.5°F
Relative Humidity: 67%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 1 mph
Barometer: 30.07 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 170506
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
106 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure over southern New England will bring dry weather 
through mid week. It will be cooler Wednesday along the coast 
with sea breezes. Isolated to scattered showers across the 
interior Thursday with slightly below normal temperatures. Dry 
on Friday with high pressure in control. A cold front brings 
another round of light rain showers late Friday through 
Saturday. Turning drier Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

930 PM Update...

* Quiet overnight...light wind & lows in the 30s to lower 40s

Previous forecast is on track. A ridge of high pressure overhead
will continue to result in mainly clear skies, light/calm winds
and a good night of radiational cooling. Overnight low temps
should bottom out well down into the 30s across the normally
coolest outlying locations...to between 40 and 45 in some of the
urban centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

The mid level ridge axis shifts directly overhead on Wednesday 
leading to sunny skies for a good portion of the day and dry 
weather all day. The skies will fill in with high clouds from 
west to east starting mid morning, thickening and lowering 
through the day ahead of a warm front. Temperatures during the 
day will be quite different along the coast compared to inland 
locations thanks to a seabreeze. By afternoon we expect temps in
the low to mid 50s along the coast and low to mid 60s inland. 
The better plume of moisture arrives after sunset ahead of a 
shortwave pushing into the eastern Great Lakes. There continue 
to be considerable discrepancies amongst the guidance as to how 
far east into SNE the PWAT plume pushes, but ensembles are in 
agreement that the far better chance of wet weather will be over
western MA/CT where the much more moisture is present and 
upslope flow into the terrain will enhance lift. The GEFS and 
EPS put the chance of measurable rain over 90% in western MA/CT 
and less than 30% in far eastern MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights

* Isolated to scattered showers on Thu, mainly across the
  interior, with slightly below normal temperatures.

* Dry for much of Fri with temps returning to seasonable levels. 

* Cold front brings scattered showers late Fri through Sat. Mild 
  temperatures return. 

* The temperature roller coaster continues, with a return to near 
  normal temperatures and dry weather for Sun into Tue.

Southern New England will be dealing with another mid level
omega block. This time through, we should initially be located
beneath the ridge portion of this block. Currently expecting 
this mid level ridging to move off to our east towards this 
weekend, leading to a transition to a broad mid level trough 
early next week.

At the surface, high pressure should remain in control of our  
weather into Friday morning. Thus, mainly dry weather expected, 
although there could be a risk for scattered showers towards its
edges, which would be mainly across the western half of southern 
New England both Thursday and Friday. A slow moving front
Saturday should continue the risk for showers, before high
pressure arrives late this weekend into early next week.

Stayed close to the NationalBlend solution for this portion of
the forecast. Can see a scenario where rainfall chances could 
be lowered in later forecasts for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High- greater than 60 percent. 

06z TAF Update...

Today...High Confidence.

VFR despite the increase in some mid/high clouds especially
across interior southern New England this afternoon. Light NNE
winds becoming light S this afternoon...except for localized
seas breezes developing along the coast.

Tonight and Thursday...High Confidence. 

Some MVFR ceilings and showers develop tonight across western MA/CT with the
best chance near and west of the CT River. These conditions will
persist at times into Thursday. Meanwhile...across eastern MA/RI
mainly VFR conditions are expected. Light SE winds tonight
becoming E between 5 and 10 knots on Thursday. 

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Classic E/ESE sea breeze
develops at the terminal by mid to late morning. 

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... 

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated
SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent. 

Today through Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

Weak pressure gradient will keep winds and seas below Small 
Craft Advisory thresholds through Wednesday night. No fog or 
vsby issues expected.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... 

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Isolated rain showers. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Frank/Belk
MARINE...Belk/BW