Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 270735 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 335 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Damp and chilly with patchy drizzle and fog Wednesday morning, gives way to a period of dry and milder weather from late morning into the afternoon. A frontal wave will bring more widespread rain to the region from late Wednesday, through Thursday and possibly lingering into early Friday. This additional rainfall may lead to renewed flooding concerns. Drying out later Friday and remaining mainly dry over the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will be seasonable, but remaining breezy at times. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages... * Much milder this afternoon, 15-20 degs warmer than Tue * Mainly dry weather late morning into early/mid aftn 2 AM update... 1040 mb high over southeast Quebec early this morning wedge down into SNE is providing shallow cool air across the region, with NE flow and temps in the 30s. Meanwhile, SW flow aloft overriding this shallow cool layer is providing WAA spotty light rain/mist/drizzle, along with areas of fog. Thus, another dreary morning on tap. However, all models agree on mid level dry air overspreading the region this afternoon. This won't result in sunshine (although, some brightening in the overcast is possible at times), but a period of dry weather is expected from late morning into the afternoon. This will be short lived, as deeper moisture and lift arrive later in the day in the SW flow aloft. This will result in showers redeveloping between 4 pm and 8 pm from west to east. As NE winds this morning shift to the SSE this afternoon, combined with warm air aloft (925 mb temps warming from +2C 18z Tue to +10C Wed at 18z) will result in temps about 15-20 degs warmer than Tue along with lighter winds! This will yield highs in the mid to upper 50s. If enough breaks of sunshine burn through the clouds, a few locations could warm to 60. Dew pts rising from the 30s into the 40s will also contribute to the milder conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages... * Widespread rain likely * Axis of heaviest rain remains uncertain 2 AM update... Rain becomes more widespread Wed night, as strong subtropical jet (up to 140 kt) moves up the eastern seaboard and advects PWATs greater than 1 inch across the area. On Thu the axis of highest PWATs sets up across southeast MA per ensembles, however strong Fgen farther to the west across CT/RI into central MA, resembling a winter type system, but ptype all rain for this even. 00z models continue to disagree on the exact placement of these features, thus axis of heaviest rain remains uncertain. 1-2 inches of rain possible with locally up to 3" not out of the question given strong upper jet with RRQ over SNE, coupled with strong mid level Fgen and above avg PWATs. If 2-3" of rainfall materializes, renewed flooding is possible as rivers and streams are running above normal, including saturated soils and elevated ground water levels. Axis of heaviest rain will hinge on amplitude of mid/upper level trough and how much mid level flow can back along the eastern seaboard. For what it's worth, 00z HREF has heaviest rain from eastern CT into RI and eastern MA. Light winds Wed night with mild temps in response to dew pts in the 40s. Winds remain light on Thu along with temps at or slightly milder than normal, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights Long Term Highlights * Drying out Friday with seasonable temperatures and windy conditions through Saturday * Seasonable temperatures and a mix of sun and clouds Sunday and Monday * Next chance for precip Monday night into Tuesday Thursday night and Friday Wet conditions continue Thursday night into Friday as an inverted trough axis associated with a coastal-low pressure system progresses east off the southern New England coastline. There remains uncertainty in how far north and west the inverted trough axis and associated area of precipitation reaches in southern New England, but steady rain is forecast at least for the east/southeastern areas of MA and RI through Friday morning. Precip may linger a bit longer over the Cape/Islands as the system continues north and east, but we'll begin to see some clearing across the interior zones by Friday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds settle in behind the departing low and persist into Saturday. 20 to 30 mph gusts will be possible. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Friday in the upper 40s to low 50s. Friday night and Saturday A strong low-level jet develops Friday night into Saturday as the pressure gradient increases in response to a mid-level ridge building in from the west. With a CAA regime in place over southern New England Friday night through Saturday, there will be a risk for 40 to 50 knot winds in the 925 to 850 hPa layer to mix down to the surface. Wind headlines may be needed, especially over the higher terrain of The Berkshires and Worcester Hills where 40 to 45 mph wind gusts will be possible. As low-pressure over The Gulf of Maine continues northeast on Saturday afternoon, the gradient should relax enough to support diminishing winds Saturday afternoon and evening. Nonetheless, 30+ mph wind gusts will be possible for much of the day Saturday. Temperatures remain seasonable in the low 50s. Sunday through Tuesday Winds settle down on Sunday but deep northwest flow persists. This will support a mix of sun and clouds with seasonable temperatures on both Sunday and Monday. Next chance for precipitation will be Monday night into Tuesday when a surface low-pressure system is forecast to be progressing through The Great Lakes/Midwest region. Details are vague at this time, but we'll have more info as we get into the weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. 06z update... Wednesday...high confidence on trends, lower on exact timing and details. IFR/LIFR in areas of drizzle and fog this morning, slowly lifts to MVFR/VFR beginning 15z-18z. Mainly dry after 15z, but scattered showers enter region 20z-00z from west to east. NNE winds become SSE this afternoon. Wednesday night...high confidence. MVFR/VFR at 00z lowering to IFR/MVFR as showers overspread the region tonight. LIFR possible across the hilly terrain of CT and MA. Light SSE winds. Thursday...high confidence. Widespread IFR/LIFR in rain, heavy at times possibly across eastern CT into RI and eastern MA. Light/variable wind becoming NNE. KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, some uncertainty in exact timing of details. KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, some uncertainty in exact timing of details. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance RA. Friday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Saturday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 2 AM update... Key Messages... * NNE winds finally shift to the SSE Wed afternoon * Heavy rain possible late Wed night and Thursday Wednesday...high pressure over southeast Quebec and low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast both weaken today, resulting in diminishing winds and direction shifting from NE to SSE this afternoon. Areas of drizzle and fog will reduce vsby this morning, then improving this afternoon. Wed night...weak high pressure remains over the MA/RI waters, resulting in light winds. Showers become widespread, limiting vsby. Thu...low pressure near the Carolina coast intensifies as it moves offshore. This results in light/variable winds becoming light NNE across the MA/RI waters. Rain, heavy at times limits vsby. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Friday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain. Saturday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ250-251- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera NEAR TERM...Nocera SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...Belk/Nocera MARINE...Belk/Nocera
Meta data:
ID: 1715fc9a-0e0f-4506-9b7f-5cf6eb9d8fcf
Link:
https://api.weather.gov/products/1715fc9a-0e0f-4506-9b7f-5cf6eb9d8fcf
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX