Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

59°F

6/17/2026 4:52am

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 59.0°F / 15.0°C
Dew Point: 52.5°F
Relative Humidity: 79%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.77 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 150821
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
421 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers move out of southern New England by 7-8AM. Dryer
  and slightly cooler afterwards.

- High astronomical tides and up to one-foot of storm surge
  could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening high tides
  tonight and Tuesday night.

- Near seasonable temperatures and dry conditions followed by 
  more unsettled weather at the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers move out of southern New England by 
7-8AM. Dryer and slightly cooler afterwards.

Any lingering showers this morning should move out of southern 
New England by 7-8 AM. In the wake of the cold front, skies 
clear and temperatures fall to more seasonable... upper 70s 
across the interior to low to mid 80s across RI and the eastern 
coastal plain. Dewpoints will also be on the decrease, down to 
the 50s across most of the region. High pressure starts to build
in as a surface ridge develops. Lows across the interior 
tonight may fall to the low 50s with mid/upper 50s into the 
coastal plain. Winds go light to calm with clearer skies, 
lending some favorability to a possible radiational cooling 
setup.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High astronomical tides and up to one-foot of 
storm surge could cause minor coastal flooding for the evening 
high tides tonight and Tuesday night.

Astronomical tides will be peaking around 12.0 feet at Boston 
Harbor this evening and will remain elevated into Tuesday night.
Latest storm surge forecast data from P-ETSS and Stevens 
Institute continue to indicate about a half to up to one foot of
storm surge through Tuesday evening's tide cycle. 

This is a low-ceiling coastal flooding scenario, with 
splashover or at worst minor coastal flooding in the usual 
vulnerable shoreline roads (including but not limited to Easy 
Street in Nantucket and Morrissey Blvd in Boston). Given the 
influx of visitors to Southern New England who may not be as 
familiar with coastal flooding, we opted to continue Coastal 
Flood Statements for much of the southern and eastern coast with
a Coastal Flood Advisory remaining in effect for Nantucket 
through Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Expecting a more active pattern to return 
during the second half of the week.

Temperatures will start to climb again heading into Wednesday, 
but are still seasonable in the low to mid 80s with tolerable 
humidity levels. Long-range guidance continues to disagree 
regarding precipitation chances Wednesday, with the GFS (and 
ensembles) bringing light shower chances back Wednesday during 
the daytime while the ECMWF and Canadian (and ensembles) hold 
off until Thursday. Regardless, more active weather looks to 
develop around Thursday or Thursday night, as a stronger 
disturbance aloft moves in and sweeps a cold front through 
Southern New England. This could bring higher chances for 
showers and/or thunderstorms.

Expecting a front to push offshore sometime on Friday, bringing
clearing skies and dry conditions to southern New England as we
head into the weekend. Temperatures should climb to slightly 
above normal, in the mid to upper 80s, but dewpoints should 
return to comfortable levels, in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Overnight: Moderate confidence.

Areas of MVFR to IFR possible with incoming SHRA and TSRA 
associated with a passing cold front. Expecting bulk of the 
showers and storms to pass through 04-08z for BDL and 07-11z 
elsewhere. Winds prevailing out of the south from 10-15 kt 
sustained, shifting NW in the wake of the front. Have added LLWS
overnight prior to the cold frontal passage for all but inland 
terminals to account for 35-40kt flow at 2-3 thousand feet.

Monday: High confidence.

Conditions improve to VFR behind the front as NW flow develops.
Generally NW winds decreasing to near 10 kts throughout the 
day.

Monday Night: High Confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Few lingering high level clouds 
possible over Cape/Islands.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends. Moderate 
confidence in timing. Have inserted a TEMPO group for thunder 
overnight as confidence is increasing.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence 
in timing. Threat of thunder approaching right around 06z still 
looks good.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. 

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Monday....High confidence.

Seas remain 4-5 ft across the southern waters, but drop to 2-4 
ft across the northern waters. Likewise, wind gusts remain 
around 20 kts across the southern waters and drop to near 10 kts
across the northern waters.

Monday Night...High confidence.

Localized parts of the southern outer waters early Monday night
may see seas to 5 ft before settling to 2-4 ft overall heading 
into Tuesday morning. Winds remain NW, sustained between 10-15 
kt with not much in the way of wind gusts.

Tuesday...High confidence.

Seas generally 2-4 ft. NW winds turning SW with some gusts up 
to 20 kts possible.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Slight chance of rain showers. 

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers. 

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain
showers. 

Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for 
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn