Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 030133 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 933 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to govern our weather pattern this weekend, bringing dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures. Well above normal temperatures in the 70s, along with windy conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front moves through Thursday, but temps only fall back into the 60s. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 10 PM Update: For tonight, high pressure will continue to ridge into Southern New England. Mostly clear skies for the overnight. Still looks to be enough of a NW gradient where winds could stay up some until after midnight, with lighter winds and better radiational cooling for the 2nd half of the evening. Cold advection bring 925 mb temps down to 0 to -3C by 12z Sunday. Should see a pretty wide range in lows, with most areas in the 20s to around freezing, although the cities look to stay in the mid to upper 30s and the Outer Cape and Nantucket in the upper 30s/low 40s where there looks to be enough of a NW wind around. Also, a reminder for BOX AFD readers that Daylight Saving Time ends overnight tonight. Turn your clocks back by an hour before going to bed this evening, and it's a good idea to check your batteries in your smoke detectors and your NOAA Weather Radios as well. Of course, the tradeoff for the extra hour of sleep is that the sun will be setting around 430 pm starting tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM Update: Sunday and Sunday Night: Center of strong 1030+ mb high pressure moves from western NY into interior northern New England on Sunday, then settles into southern New England on Monday. Dry weather again expected with a lot more sunshine on Sunday, along with falling dewpoints into the mid teens in the interior. Light northerly winds. Highs in the low to mid 50s, bringing relative humidities into the upper 20s to the 30s. Sunday night should feature excellent radiational cooling conditions with clear skies, very dry air and light/calm winds. Ended up weighing more of the colder MET MOS guidance for lows with fairly widespread 20s lows except around freezing for sites at elevation, the cities and over the Cape and Islands. There could be a few sites in western MA where lows drop below 20. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Monday and Monday Night: Upper level ridging continues across the northeast Monday with surface high pressure shifting offshore. 850mb temperatures trend a few degrees warmer than Sunday, but highs should still remain in the 50s with the light SE surface flow. This combined with mid-level moisture will bring keep conditions mostly cloudy. Monday night into Tuesday, weak warm advection turns winds more southwest. This will bring some weak lift to the region and with marginal moisture around could support development of isolated showers. Coverage and amounts will be limited given lacking upper level support. Tuesday through Wednesday: The upper level ridge shifts further east on Tuesday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This will position a low level jet across southern New England. If there is ample mixing this could bring down gusts 20-30 mph. Model soundings still hint at the presence of mid-level moisture which if sufficient enough could limit mixing heights and the extent that the higher winds aloft translate to the surface. Something to watch as we near closer, mainly with gusty winds elevating fire weather conditions. It will also trend warmer Tuesday with highs in the in the 60s with even a few spots having a shot at 70. Similar conditions for Wednesday with a continued signal for above normal temperatures, possibly a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. This could put highs back toward record territory in places with highs in the low to mid 70s. Model guidance shows indications of a weak shortwave moving through; however, most guidance has leaned on the dry side with lacking upper level support. This could still keep mid-level moisture around and elevated dewpoints. Despite the marginal moisture about, the potential for breezy conditions and mild temperatures will be it another day to keep an eye on to see if it trends drier. Thursday and onward: A weak cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday. Flow aloft stays zonal with W/WNW flow. This will bring in a cooler airmass than the last few days; however, still above normal overall. Highs range in the 60s. Model and ensemble consensus decreases towards the weekend. WPC cluster analysis continues to highlight spread among ensembles and their individual solutions. A good percentage of members have southern New England on the cusp of an upper ridge pattern. A chunk of members indicate a more unsettled/wetter pattern with rain chances for the weekend while others keep with the drier trend. Overall, there is still a good amount of uncertainty for next weekend, but should come more clear as we get closer. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Through 00z Monday: High confidence. Scattered clouds overnight with NW/NNW winds decreasing into Sunday morning. VFR SKC for Sunday with light NW to N winds. Sunday Night: High confidence. VFR continues. Could see winds turn light ENE near the eastern MA coast Sunday evening, otherwise light N winds. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. NW/NNW winds tonight at 5-10 kts. Light N winds Sunday with VFR conditions. Winds may lean more NNE at times in the afternoon less than 8 kts. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Monday/ Monday: VFR. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA. Thursday: Slight chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 335 PM Update: Tranquil marine weather conditions are expected through Sunday night, governed by strong high pressure. This will bring decreasing northwest wind speeds through the the weekend, with seas decreasing to 3 ft or less on all waters. Dry weather is expected. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... 345 PM Update: The protracted stretch of dry weather will continue to lead to elevated concerns for wildfire development until we can get a substantial wetting rain event. Relative humidities should range around 30 percent on Sunday, with light north winds. With a lack of significant rain expected over the next several days, Special Weather Statements are likely to be needed through next week coinciding with periods where winds are on the light side. Consideration will be given toward red flag headlines to highlight a greater threat for wildfire development and spread when and where there are sufficiently strong enough winds. Tuesday and Wednesday could meet that criterion pending wind speeds, but those decisions would be coordinated beforehand with our state fire weather partners. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Mensch NEAR TERM...Loconto/KP SHORT TERM...Loconto LONG TERM...Mensch AVIATION...Loconto/Mensch MARINE...Loconto/Mensch FIRE WEATHER...Loconto/Mensch
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