Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 311047 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 647 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Near record high temperatures are expected today ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures remain unseasonably warm and quite breezy on Friday with near record high temperatures well into the 70s. High temperatures fall back to more seasonable levels for the weekend with continued dry conditions. A gradual warming trend is expected early next week with well above normal temperatures by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Increasing dewpoints this morning on moist southerly flow have led to patchy dense fog across southern New England but coverage is not expected to become widespread. Any lingering fog will mix out shortly after sunrise. Those elevated dewpoints have also limited our cooling overnight for a very mild start to the day, already in the low 60s for many. This will set southern New England up for near record warmth this afternoon. At the synoptic scale a mid level ridge axis shifts east of the region directing warm SW flow with 925 mb temps reaching as warm as 18C. This, coupled with some downslope component into the CT River and Merrimack valleys will lead to high temps in the upper 70s and low 80s. The exception is along the immediate south coast where onshore flow limits temps to the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Tonight a surface low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into northern New England dragging a surface cold front lacking much moisture toward southern New England. At the mid levels flow becomes more zonal. The result will for most will be some increased cloudcover ahead of the front but most won't see any rain. The more notable change will be an increase in winds on Friday as mid level cold advection leads to a better mixed boundary layer in sync with a 35-45 kt 925mb jet overhead. Model soundings indicate we'll mix down gusts anywhere from 25 to 35 mph. This will of course only exacerbate any ongoing wildfire concerns. See the fire weather section below for more. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday and Sunday: Cooler and more seasonable temps return for the weekend with a cooler airmass in place behind Fridays cold front. Temperatures over the weekend will struggle to top 60F, likely staying in the low to mid-50s. Surface high pressure will allow the pressure gradient to relax and winds to become light over the weekend. Good radiational cooling conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday night, with lows dropping into the 20s and 30s. Monday - Wednesday: Guidance remains in good agreement to start the work week, showing a quick-moving upper-level ridge building in. This will allow temps to slowly rebound, but a back door cold front may stall over the region Monday and Tuesday, making the temperatures forecast quite uncertain at this time. A warm front should move through late Tuesday into Wednesday, kicking out the back door front and allowing temps to rise well above normal into the 70s again. The warm front will likely not have enough upper-level support to bring any substantial rainfall to the region. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today and tonight: High confidence. VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts. Friday: High confidence. VFR. Increasingly gusty SW winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today: Seas decrease to 2-3 ft with continued SW winds at 15-20 kt. A few gusts just below 20 kt also possible. Tonight: Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to return with seas up to 7 ft in the outer waters possible. Winds continue to be from the SW but increase to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Friday: Small Craft Advisory conditions persist with seas 4-7 ft and wind gusts 25-30 kts. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .FIRE WEATHER... The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. The biggest concern continues to be Friday when westerly winds may gust to between 25 and 35 mph. This, as relative humidities drop to between 35 and 40 percent away from the south coast. We will continue to coordinate Fire Weather products with our state partners. && .CLIMATE... Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st BOS: 81F (1946) ORH: 79F (1946) PVD: 83F (1946) BDL: 82F (1946) Maximum Record High Temperatures: November 1st BOS: 77F (1974) ORH: 73F (2003) PVD: 78F (1974) BDL: 81F (1974) && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW/KP NEAR TERM...BW/KP SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...KP AVIATION...BW/KP MARINE...BW/KP FIRE WEATHER...BW/KP CLIMATE...Dooley
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