Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

38°F
11/4/2024 8:50am 
  • Lexington Conditions: Clear
  • Temperature: 37.6°F / 3.1°CWarmer 6.1°F than last hour.
  • Dew Point: 29.3°FIncreased 2.7°Fsince last hour.
  • Relative Humidity: 72%Decreased 10.0% since last hour.
  • Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
  • Barometer: 30.54 inFalling 0.02  inHg/hr Falling Slowly
  • Visibility: 10 miles
  • Rain Today: 0.00 in
  •   
Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Special Weather Statement
 - SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 311047
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
647 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record high temperatures are expected today ahead of an 
approaching cold front. Temperatures remain unseasonably warm and 
quite breezy on Friday with near record high temperatures well into 
the 70s. High temperatures fall back to more seasonable levels for 
the weekend with continued dry conditions. A gradual warming trend 
is expected early next week with well above normal temperatures by 
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Increasing dewpoints this morning on moist southerly flow have led 
to patchy dense fog across southern New England but coverage is not 
expected to become widespread. Any lingering fog will mix out 
shortly after sunrise. Those elevated dewpoints have also limited 
our cooling overnight for a very mild start to the day, already in 
the low 60s for many. This will set southern New England up for near 
record warmth this afternoon. At the synoptic scale a mid level 
ridge axis shifts east of the region directing warm SW flow with 925 
mb temps reaching as warm as 18C. This, coupled with some downslope 
component into the CT River and Merrimack valleys will lead to high 
temps in the upper 70s and low 80s. The exception is along the 
immediate south coast where onshore flow limits temps to the upper 
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Tonight a surface low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into 
northern New England dragging a surface cold front lacking much 
moisture toward southern New England. At the mid levels flow becomes 
more zonal. The result will for most will be some increased 
cloudcover ahead of the front but most won't see any rain. The more 
notable change will be an increase in winds on Friday as mid level 
cold advection leads to a better mixed boundary layer in sync with a 
35-45 kt 925mb jet overhead. Model soundings indicate we'll mix down 
gusts anywhere from 25 to 35 mph. This will of course only 
exacerbate any ongoing wildfire concerns. See the fire weather 
section below for more.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday:

Cooler and more seasonable temps return for the weekend with a 
cooler airmass in place behind Fridays cold front.  Temperatures 
over the weekend will struggle to top 60F, likely staying in the low 
to mid-50s.  Surface high pressure will allow the pressure gradient 
to relax and winds to become light over the weekend.  Good 
radiational cooling conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday 
night, with lows dropping into the 20s and 30s.


Monday - Wednesday:

Guidance remains in good agreement to start the work week, showing a 
quick-moving upper-level ridge building in. This will allow temps to 
slowly rebound, but a back door cold front may stall over the region 
Monday and Tuesday, making the temperatures forecast quite uncertain 
at this time.  A warm front should move through late Tuesday into 
Wednesday, kicking out the back door front and allowing temps to 
rise well above normal into the 70s again. The warm front will 
likely not have enough upper-level support to bring any substantial 
rainfall to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today and tonight: High confidence. 

VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts. 

Friday: High confidence. 

VFR. Increasingly gusty SW winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts. 

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. 

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday through Sunday Night: VFR. 

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today: Seas decrease to 2-3 ft with continued SW winds at 15-20
kt. A few gusts just below 20 kt also possible.

Tonight: Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to return
with seas up to 7 ft in the outer waters possible. Winds 
continue to be from the SW but increase to 25 kt with gusts up 
to 30 kt. 

Friday: Small Craft Advisory conditions persist with seas 4-7 ft
and wind gusts 25-30 kts. 

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The unusually prolonged dry stretch of weather will result in 
continued Fire Weather Concerns for the rest of the week. The 
biggest concern continues to be Friday when westerly winds may gust 
to between 25 and 35 mph. This, as relative humidities drop to 
between 35 and 40 percent away from the south coast. We will 
continue to coordinate Fire Weather products with our state partners.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Maximum Record High Temperatures: October, 31st

BOS: 81F (1946) 
ORH: 79F (1946) 
PVD: 83F (1946) 
BDL: 82F (1946)

Maximum Record High Temperatures: November 1st

BOS: 77F (1974) 
ORH: 73F (2003) 
PVD: 78F (1974) 
BDL: 81F (1974)

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for 
     ANZ232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT 
     Friday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT 
     Saturday for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT 
     Saturday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...BW/KP
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
FIRE WEATHER...BW/KP
CLIMATE...Dooley
      

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