Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

32°F

2/22/2026 7:53pm

Lexington Conditions: Light snow, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 31.6°F / -0.2°C
Dew Point: 29.7°F
Relative Humidity: 92%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 2 mph
Barometer: 29.94 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 4 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Blizzard Warning
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 211705
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1205 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories canceled for this morning. Little to
no additional snow accumulation today.

Given increased confidence in a high-impact storm, Winter Storm
Watch expanded to include all of southern New England. Thinking
that the highest snow totals will be along and SE of the I-95 
corridor with slightly lower amounts farther inland. Blizzard 
conditions are possible near the coast, as well as RI and 
southeast MA.

High Wind Watch consolidated into the Winter Storm Watch with a
mention of possible blizzard conditions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers continue today with little additional 
  accumulation expected.

- A strong coastal storm likely brings a period of significant
  impacts to much of the region Sunday afternoon into Monday
  night. The area of highest snowfall and greatest impacts is 
  still somewhat uncertain, but a widespread high-impact event 
  appears more likely with the latest forecast cycle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow showers continue today with little 
additional accumulation expected.

Light snow showers are expected to continue through mid-morning
today as an inverted trough remains over New England. However, 
the dendritic growth zone will dry out through this morning, 
leading to poor snow growth potential. Expecting very minor 
accumulations, if any, this morning, with northeastern MA most  
likely to see highest additional totals.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong coastal storm likely brings a period of
significant impacts to much of the region Sunday afternoon into 
Monday night. The area of highest snowfall and greatest impacts 
is still somewhat uncertain, but a widespread high-impact event
appears more likely with the latest forecast cycle.

Deterministic and ensemble models have come into better
agreement with the powerful coastal low slated to impact our 
region Sunday afternoon into Monday night. The increasingly 
amplified trends of the last few model cycles have been driven 
by a much stronger downstream ridge. This change resulted in a 
quicker evolution of the upper level trough for Sunday afternoon
from a neutral/positive tilt over the Ohio Valley on previous 
runs, to more of a negative tilt transposed several hundred 
miles east over the Mid Atlantic on more recent runs.

With these changes to the upper air pattern, models have advertised
solutions much closer to the coast. Consensus in guidance shows
a more classic Nor'easter track with low pressure emerging off 
Cape Hatteras Sunday evening, then rapidly deepening as it
passes near the 40N/70W benchmark Monday afternoon. Some 
guidance even shows this surface low getting captured by a deep
upper level low Monday morning, which would result in a track 
inside the benchmark. Fortunately, these trends have helped to 
greatly reduce track variability amongst the deterministic 
guidance and ensembles. The GFS and NAM continue to show the 
most extreme solutions with a track inside the 40N/70W
benchmark, while the ECMWF and Canadian have a track closer to 
the benchmark itself. So, while it is great to see better 
agreement in the synoptic details, the next forecast hurdle will
be determining where the heaviest snow will fall. 

Given that we are still 2-3 days away, we aren't quite in the 
range to start nailing down mesoscale features like banding or 
the location of heaviest snowfall. However, there are several
synoptic clues that hint at a dynamic short term forecast 
ahead. As with most deep cyclones, this powerful coastal storm 
will feature a trough of warm air aloft (TROWAL). TROWALs help 
to increase frontogenesis and create banded precipitation 
patterns. Temperatures in this layer will rise to above 0C, 
helping to drive what will likely be some heavy bands of snow. 
The exact placement of these bands will depend on subtle 
differences in the track of the low center. Here, a change of 
even 25-50 miles could mean significant adjustments to the 
location of any one mesoscale band.

A look at model soundings confirms the risk for areas of heavy 
snow with a deep dendritic growth zone collocated with -strong
vertical motion. Snow ratios will suffer somewhat with the 
combination of a strong low level jet (LLJ) fracturing dendrites
and marginal temperatures at the coast Monday afternoon.

Another facet of this storm will be a period of strong to
damaging winds Monday. Storms of this magnitude usually have a
strong LLJ but it is less common to have also have a
thermodynamic environment that allows winds aloft to readily 
mix to the surface. Looking at a 70-80 kt LLJ Monday that will 
pair with steep low level lapse rates to bring widespread strong
to damaging winds. Confidence is highest across coastal zones 
where the NBM has a 50-70% chance for wind gusts over 50 mph for
much of southern Rhode Island and coastal/SE Massachusetts. 

Given the trends and increased confidence we expanded the 
Winter Storm Watch to include the rest of the CWA. The latest 
NBM has a 50% chance of greater than 6 inches of snow all the 
way up to the NH border. Also mentioned the chance for blizzard 
conditions for much of S RI, SE MA, and the Cape/Islands where 
there is higher confidence in 3+ hours of blizzard conditions.
Consolidated the High Wind Watch headline into the Winter Storm
Watch with the mention of the blizzard conditions.

Onset of the snow looks to be sometime Sunday afternoon into
the evening hours, with the peak of the snowfall rates later 
Sunday night into Monday, before snow tapers off Monday evening.
It's possible dry air at onset could cause snow to hold off 
until Monday, something depicted toward end of 12km NAM run, so 
it's also not out of the question that the bulk of the snow 
could fall during the day Monday.

Finally, high astronomical tides Monday into Tuesday brings the 
potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding along eastern MA 
coast, depending upon timing of highest surge. Surge guidance and 
pattern recognition suggests a 3 foot surge around high tide early 
Monday morning and again early Tuesday morning, which could bring 
the water level to over 6 feet in Nantucket Harbor and to 13.5 feet 
in Boston, although wave impacts along the coastline would result in 
greater impacts (likely Moderate) as well as coastal erosion. Keep 
in mind large pressure falls would also add to the water level.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate confidence.

CIGS gradually improve to MVFR/VFR late morning to early
afternoon. Snow showers may linger into the afternoon 
esspically across western MA/CT, with light accumulations 
expected 

Tonight and Sunday...Moderate confidence.

Mainly MVFR, with brief improvement to VFR overnight but
becoming MVFR again Sunday morning. Winds turn light northerly
this evening and turn back light NE Sunday. There may be a few
snow showers across western MA and CT this evening, however,
confidence is low

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MVFR with NE winds this afternoon, turning N this evening. CIGS
should improve to VFR but remaining around a SCT030. Winds turn
back to the NE Sunday morning which will bring the MVFR cloud
deck back onshore.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MVFR with periods of VFR through much of the TAF period. There
could be some light snow showers/flurries this evening into
tonight. MVFR sticks around on Sunday. Snow ahead of the next
system will begin just before 00z Monday. 

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Chance SN.

Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts up to 55 kt. SN.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 50 kt. Chance SN.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence.

Rough seas will linger awhile longer offshore, then the 
developing coastal low as outlined above is expected to bring 
dangerous marine conditions later Sunday night and into Monday 
night.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 17 ft. Snow, rain. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday: Moderate risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
55 kt. Rough seas up to 24 ft. Snow, rain. Visibility 1 nm or
less.

Monday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
55 kt. Rough seas up to 24 ft. Chance of snow. Local visibility
1 nm or less.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning 
     for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday 
     morning for MAZ002>024-026.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday 
     morning for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
RI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday 
     morning for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for 
     ANZ230.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     ANZ231.
     Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for 
     ANZ232>234.
     Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon 
     for ANZ235-237.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for 
     ANZ236.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     ANZ250-251.
     Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for 
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...Belk/FT