Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 291134 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 634 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Drying out today with seasonable temperatures, then colder but mainly dry weather follows this weekend and into much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main tweaks this morning were to sky cover and temperatures to reflect observed trends. Some lake effect clouds had made it over the Berkshires into the CT RIver Valley. Already seeing signs of these clouds dissipating from the south, and expecting this trend will continue once more boundary layer mixing commences. More clouds still expected to arrive later this afternoon. Previous Discussion... Southern New England should be between most major weather features today. Yesterday's low pressure is now over the Maritimes. Another low pressure will be near James Bay. This will maintain a general cyclonic flow across our region, but provide no real focus to trigger showers. A lack of moisture for most of the daylight hours will not help to generate showers either. A sheared mid level shortwave and increased humidity may reach western MA late today, which is when showers would be more of a possibility. The other aspect we will need to monitor today is the possibility for ocean-effect showers. With a general west wind today, the majority of these showers would be either well offshore or south of New England, where the fetch will be better. Near normal high temperatures for late November. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Not much change to the overall pattern tonight into Saturday, so not much change to the overall forecast. Showers towards western MA should diminish this evening as the mid level shortwave moves on. Ocean-effect showers should still come and go south of New England, and perhaps may extend far enough north to reach the Vineyard and Nantucket at times. This is just a low chance for showers, and weather should be dry most of this time. Turning colder tonight into Saturday, but just slightly below normal temperatures expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Points -Mainly dry and cold for the weekend and into the middle of next week. -Next chance for precip could be sometime late next week. The upper air pattern remains stalled out through the end of the weekend and into next week, with a blocking ridge over the western CONUS keeping us in the east under a troughing pattern. This will result in several days of dry, cold, and at times blustery weather. High temperatures will struggle to reach 40F, with below-freezing temps in the high terrain of NW Massachusetts. Low temperatures will drop into the high teens to low 20s across the region. There could be some ocean effect rain/snow showers, but most should end up well offshore of the coastal waters. The next chance for measurable precipitation comes sometime in the middle to end of next week as the upper level blocking pattern begins to break down. The deterministic GFS consistently brings a low-pressure system through Thursday. However, this appears to be an outlier compared to the GEFS system, with very few members showing a low-pressure system near SNE. Temperatures remain uncertain at this time range, but there are some early indications for an arctic airmass moving in late next week into the following weekend. Both the GEFS and Euro ensembles currently show a 10 to 30% chance for a - 20 degree temperature anomaly. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday: High Confidence VFR for most of this time. Local MVFR in spotty showers towards western MA late this afternoon into this evening. Areas MVFR possible south of New England, which could impact ACK at times, late tonight into Saturday. Gusty west winds through this portion of the forecast, but not quite as gusty at night. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday... Low pressure over the Maritimes, and another low pressure over James Bay, will maintain a general gusty west wind across the waters, but not quite as strong as yesterday. Seas will take longer to subside, especially across the outer coastal waters. Adjusted the timing of Small Craft Advisories based on recent observations. This included extending the advisory for Rhode Island Sound a little longer. Further extensions to the timing for the outer coastal waters are likely. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ232- 233-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ235. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...KP AVIATION...Belk/KP MARINE...Belk/KP
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