Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 030216 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1016 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue through the rest of the week with warming temperatures into the 70s. An approaching cold front may bring a brief period of scattered showers Saturday morning, which will be followed by lots of sunshine. A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather Sunday, but an approaching cold front may bring a period of showers by Monday. Dry but cooler fall-like weather will be ushered into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 10 PM Update... Radiational cooling is out in full force across eastern MA and RI where temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s in some of our typically prone spots like Boston and Norwood. Clouds moving in ahead of the approaching cold front/shortwave have capped cooling in the CT River Valley, so temperatures remain in the mid to upper 50s there. It's likely that more localities along the I-495 and 128 corridors fall into the 40s over the next few hours before the cloud deck moves east. Some patchy fog has already developed in Norwood. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, there remains the risk for a very isolated shower tonight across the high terrain of western MA. Previous update... Weakening shortwave moves across SNE this evening. Scattered showers accompanying this shortwave are already showing signs of dissipating as they approach eastern NY. There is a low risk for a few sprinkles in the high terrain of western MA this evening within the deeper moisture axis. Otherwise mainly dry weather will prevail as weakening shortwave outruns the deeper moisture axis followed by rising heights overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected with lows upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Thursday... Upper level ridge builds northward into New Eng as surface high pres remains across the region. Large scale subsidence will promote dry conditions, but enough lingering moisture for sct-bkn strato-cu developing. So a mix of sun and clouds with warming temps as low levels moderate. Highs will reach the low-mid 70s, but a bit cooler along the coast where sea-breezes develop. Thursday night... High pres remains in control as it gradually shifts east of New Eng. Another dry night with light winds but patchy stratus and fog may develop. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * Increased cloud cover on Friday, followed by showers late evening into early Saturday morning. * Turning dry and seasonable for Saturday afternoon and again Sunday. * Rain chances return Monday, followed by noticeably cooler weather. Friday through Sunday... The mid-level ridge shifts east on Friday with a broad trough coming in from the west. Winds aloft are from the southwest and will bring up the humidity and increase clouds for Friday. Although it is a dry day, do think there will be more clouds than sun. Did trend the highs a little cooler than the previous forecast as a result, but still seasonable in the upper 60s to mid 70s. There is still some uncertainty with the amplitude of the trough and this will likely dictate the areal coverage of showers for Friday night through early Saturday. The GFS and GEM are far more robust than the ECMWF. NMB had little to no PROBs of precipitation south of the Mass Pike on Saturday, so did deviate, added 'Slight Chance' POPs. Nothing that will washout, generally a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch. Rest of the weekend features mid-level ridging and surface high pressure building in for the rest of the weekend. Highs will trend slightly above normal, upper 60s and mid 70s Saturday, then normal Sunday in the mid 60s to 70F. Monday and Tuesday... A robust shortwave and surface cold front moves across the northeast with a better chance for wetting rains on Monday. That said, it's not a high probability that everyone will receive a healthy drink of water. Global ensembles show a 10 to 20 percent chance of totals to surpass 0.5", with the highest likelihood in northern Massachusetts. Probabilities do increase when we set the threshold to 0.1" the GEFS more conservative at 50 to 70 percent, while the ECMWF ENS at 70 to 90 percent. Drying out into Tuesday, though a mid-level low does linger to the north and weak shortwaves pivot through and that could lead to a spot shower on Tuesday. Trending cooler, normal highs for early October are typically between 65F and 70F, think Monday will fall just shy of that, but cooler on Tuesday in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Where we will really notice the air mass change is during our overnight lows. Monday night into Tuesday lows flirt with the upper 30s across northwestern Massachusetts while the coast remains in the upper 40s. Then Tuesday night into Wednesday morning lows are mid 30s to mid 40s. Coolest areas in northern Massachusetts; northern Worcester Hills and the east slope of the Berkshires, these locations could see its first frost of the season. But, would not receive 'Frost Advisory' as the Frost/Freeze Program ended as of October 1st for those locations. Tropical Weather... The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast Hurricane Kirk to become a major hurricane over the next 48 hours, potentially to a category four hurricane by early Friday. While there are no direct impacts to land, we could see larger waves radiate towards the coast of southern New England, as the track of Kirk will follow the great circle line. As we are outside of beach season, we would not issue a high surf advisory or rip current statement, rather message the risk of large waves in the AFD. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update... Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR across portions of interior southern New England. Winds generally light and variable. Thursday...High confidence. VFR. Light SW winds for the interior terminals and SE to ESE winds for the east/immediate coast terminals. Thursday Night...Moderate confidence. VFR, but MVFR along the south coast. Light SW winds. BOS TAF...Moderate confidence. VFR. Watching MVFR CIGs moving in with a decaying cold front to the west. May see low-end VFR, BKN040, develop between 03z and 08z. If clearing occurs, may see briefly lower CIGs develop and hinted at this with a SCT006. VFR for Thursday with a sea-breeze after 15z/16z. BDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. VFR conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and light SSW winds Thursday. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday night...High confidence. Extended the SCA through tonight for the outer SE waters for persistent 5 ft easterly swell. Otherwise, expect 3-4 ft over outer waters through Thu night with winds less than 15 kt. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dooley NEAR TERM...KJC/KS SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Dooley AVIATION...Dooley/Mensch MARINE...KJC/Dooley
Meta data:
ID: 2fe2bd66-87ba-478a-8e39-736ad84d0baa
Link:
https://api.weather.gov/products/2fe2bd66-87ba-478a-8e39-736ad84d0baa
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX