Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 061848 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 248 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. There will also be some near ground level smoke at times as a result of the ongoing Canadian wildfires. While not as cool as this past weekend, still expecting near to below normal temperatures with mostly hit-or-miss showers during the daytime into early this weekend. No day should be a washout. Brief dry weather with a warming trend for Sunday, before our weather turns more unsettled with our next chance for widespread showers or thunderstorms either Monday or Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Lowered max temperatures slightly this afternoon, as the ongoing smoke appears to have cut into our insolation. Generally not enough to prevent all convection this afternoon, but enough to slow down the onset by a couple of hours. Radar and satellite data showed convection just getting started, so it is only a matter of time before scattered showers and thunderstorms impact portions of southern New England. Little to no shear and instability should mean convection dissipates shortly after sunset. Near normal low temperatures expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Still no real changes to the overall synoptic pattern, with a mid level cutoff nearby and a surface low pressure lingering between northern New England and Maritimes. As such, a continued risk for diurnal showers during the afternoon and evening. The lift looks less robust, so coverage should be less. Near to below normal temperatures continue. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights: * Increased daytime cloudiness with scattered hit-or-miss showers Thurs thru Sat, with clouds and showers diminishing each evening. Temps cooler than normal, but they do warm each successive day. * Dry weather for Sunday with temps warming back to near or slightly above seasonable levels. * Better opportunity for widespread rains early next week but it is still unclear which day(s) may have better rain chances. Details: Thursday through Saturday: Models and their ensemble means remain in good agreement on the overall pattern to close the workweek. A large/broad upper level low over Nova Scotia/ME vicinity will continue to govern our weather in this period, making slow eastward progress. With a cool pocket of air aloft (850 mb temps in the mid single digits C range) and some moisture around, expect diurnally-driven increases in cloud cover along with pop-up/hit-or-miss showers at scattered net coverage. It looks like instability will be too limited to permit these diurnally driven cloudiness deepening to the point where thunder would be a possibility. Despite the showers around to dodge, there also will be several hrs of dry weather around. Expect cloud cover and showers to decrease each evening. Though a slow warming trend anticipated through late week into Sat, expect highs to run cooler than normal given the cool profiles aloft and "destructive" sunshine (e.g. heating driving increasing cloud coverage). Highs mainly upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the lower to mid 50s. The more noticeable change compared to prior forecasts is that the upper low from late-weekend now looks to linger around for another day, into Saturday. This seems reasonable as the mid/upper level pattern remains blocky/slow-to-progress. Conditions should be overall similar to Thurs and Fri, albeit with slightly warmer temps. Have brought PoPs up into the isolated to scattered shower range. Sunday: Sunday now looks to be a transition day back towards more seasonable temperatures and dry weather as subsidence is induced by shortwave ridging aloft, as the pesky upper level low finally moves east. Likely to be the pick of the weekend with temperatures warming back to more seasonable levels (mid 70s to low 80s). Lows mainly in the 50s, and while humidity levels increase it should still fall on the comfortable side. Early Next Week: Models and ensembles continue to show an evolving upper level low digging into the OH Valley into the PA/western MD vicinity sometime early next week. Moisture levels increase more significantly associated with a modest SSWly low-level jet. It seems more likely that early next week (Mon/possibly Tue) offers a good chance for wetting rains with perhaps some garden variety thunder too, as PWAT values rise to 1.2 to 1.5 inches. This is about one standard deviation above normal for early to mid June. Have capped PoP for both Mon and Tue at high chance levels for now as there's a fair degree of solution spread as far as which day(s) may offer better rain chances. May see a slight decrease in temps owing to the increased cloud cover, and while not muggy or oppressive, it may feel a touch more humid than conditions experienced more recently. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High Confidence. Any scattered showers and thunderstorms will come to an end by early-mid evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR, but cannot rule out some marginal MVFR cigs working into northern MA overnight, along with a few spot showers. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR but low prob of brief MVFR in isolated afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA. Otherwise, dry weather in VFR conditions. Wednesday Night...High Confidence. Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR, especially across the higher terrain. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Generally VFR, then a few t-storms will develop this afternoon. Thinking is the bulk of them will be west of the terminal. We will also have to watch for areas of near ground level smoke at times, which may reduce visibility. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Main concern will be for areas of near ground smoke that could briefly reduce vsbys today. We also will have to watch for the potential of a few t-storms developing this afternoon in the vicinity of the terminal. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Scattered SHRA. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday Night...High Confidence. Low pressure lingers between northern New England and the Maritimes. This results in a modest NW wind 10-20 kt and scattered showers/thunderstorms at times, mainly in the afternoon. Other than during brief shower/thunderstorm, good vsby expected. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Isolated rain showers. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Scattered rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Isolated rain showers. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astro tides remain high late tonight, 11.3 ft MLLW at Boston and 4.1 ft MLLW at Nantucket. Given less surge and wave action is expected than previous nights, waters levels and threat of minor flooding is also expected to be lower. Therefore, held off on issuing any headlines. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ002>004. MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ002>024- 026. RI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for RIZ001>008. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Loconto NEAR TERM...Belk SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Belk/Loconto MARINE...Belk/Loconto TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staff
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