Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

32°F

2/22/2026 7:53pm

Lexington Conditions: Light snow, Mist, Overcast
Temperature: 31.6°F / -0.2°C
Dew Point: 29.7°F
Relative Humidity: 92%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 2 mph
Barometer: 29.94 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 4 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Southeast Middlesex County, MA - Blizzard Warning
- SEE ALL NEARBY ALERTS -

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 181815
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
115 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Winter Weather Advisory for central/western MA is cancelled. The
system currently producing some light rain showers in CT/RI, 
western MA is now forecast to only produce a coating to an inch 
of snow, with possibly amounts between 2-3 inches in The 
Berkshires through this evening. Low confidence in advisory 
thresholds being met, and not expecting any significant impacts.
Thus, The advisory has been cancelled.


Wintry mix expected Friday into Saturday with the greatest risk for 
several inches of snow across northern Massachusetts. Latest 
guidance favors a graze/miss with powerful coastal storm Sunday 
night into Monday, but a shift just a bit northwest would bring the 
potential for heavy snow, strong winds & coastal flooding. All 
options remain on the table. 
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow showers this evening will be followed by a
  period of quiet weather with high pressure supporting dry
  conditions through Thursday night.

- Wintry mix Fri-Fri night with exact snow/ice amounts uncertain. 
  Greatest risk for several inches of snow will be across northern 
  MA. Snow showers linger Sat with additional accumulations possible.
  
- Latest guidance favors a graze/miss with powerful coastal
  storm Sun night-Mon, but a shift just a bit northwest would
  bring the potential for heavy snow, strong winds & coastal
  flooding. All options remain on the table. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light rain/snow showers this evening will be 
followed by a period of quiet weather with high pressure supporting 
dry conditions through Thursday night.

A frontal wave and area of low-pressure currently producing some 
light rain showers in southern New England has progressed far 
enough south to reduce the overall risk of advisory level 
snowfall in southern New England. Temperatures across the region
currently too warm to support snowfall with surface 
temperatures ranging from roughly 33-38 degrees. As the 
afternoon/evening progresses, some cooler air will surge south 
and is likely to support a period of heavy wet snow showers. 

Nonetheless, not expecting any significant accumulations with 
only a coating to an inch for most locations south and west of 
Worcester. The Berkshires and higher elevations of western MA/CT
are expected to have the most accumulation, but still only 
around 1-2 inches. The winter weather advisory has been 
cancelled sinced most locations are no longer expected to reach 
advisory levels. In addition to the brief period of rain/snow 
showers, there is also a low risk for a brief period of freezing
rain/icing across southeastern MA and southern RI, however the 
overlap period of rain with sub-freezing temperatures is 
expected to be very brief so confidence in any icing at the
surface is low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Wintry mix Fri-Fri night with exact snow/ice amounts 
uncertain. Greatest risk for several inches of snow will be across 
northern MA. Snow showers linger Sat with additional accumulations 
possible.
  
The main forecast concern revolves around snow amounts and wintry 
mix/rain locations Friday afternoon and night across southern New 
England. Quite a complex forecast as high pressure across Quebec 
looks to provide enough of a dry/cold antecedent airmass to result 
in snow and ice across portions of the region. Low pressure then 
tracks across the Great Lakes with a secondary low pressure system 
developing off the NJ coast. This is where the forecast becomes 
quite complex and a race on how quickly the secondary low pressure 
develops. The reason is that the initial low pressure system will 
allow mid-level warmth to advect northward across our region...while 
the secondary low will try to cut that off. So the earlier secondary 
low pressure develops will result in more snow...while a later 
development allow for more ice/rain. The NAM/RRFS are the quickest 
to advance the mid level warmth...while the RGEM/GFS are the slowest.
This will make the difference between much of the region receiving
several inches of snow or more ice/rain especially southern locations.
Even if the warmer mid level solutions verify...shallow cold air may 
be trapped across parts of the interior resulting in freezing rain.

The forecast remains interesting into Sat as vigorous shortwave energy
may result in an inverted trough like feature and periods of snow 
showers lingering with additional accumulations not out of the question.

So in a nutshell...given the uncertainty we have blended the guidance. 
The greatest potential for several inches of snow exists across northern MA.
This certainly looks like an advisory event...but can not rule out a 
marginal warning situation across parts of northern MA. This risk 
would increase if that inverted trough feature sets up and snow 
showers linger through Sat. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Latest guidance favors a graze/miss with powerful 
coastal storm Sun night-Mon, but a shift just a bit northwest would 
bring the  potential for heavy snow, strong winds & coastal 
flooding. All options remain on the table. 

The overall theme of the last two main model cycles is more of an 
offshore track with a potentially very powerful coast storm Sun 
night into Mon. If this were to come to fruition...we would escape 
with mainly a graze or even a complete miss. That being said...this 
is a Day 4-5 forecast which is an eternity in the model world. It 
would not take much of a shift northwest to bring the potential of 
heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding back into the forecast.
Plenty of time here and the model trends will be very important over 
the next 48 hours. Not much more we can say at this point...but it 
is way too early to write this one off and it still bears
watching. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Rest of Today and Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

MVFR/IFR celings and visibility with IFR ceilings focused more 
toward the south coast. Periods of -RA changing over to -RASN later 
this evening as temperatures fall. Expect significant improvements 
back to VFR by 06Z as showers taper off. Light northeast winds.

Thurdsay and Thursday night.

High pressure supports VFR conditions through tomorrow night. Winds 
gradually shift from northeast to southeast during the day tomorrow 
around 5 knots.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. 

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA, chance SN,
chance FZRA.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy. SN,
chance RA, chance FZRA, chance PL.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SN,
chance RA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHSN.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHSN.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the end of this week.

Weak low pressure will pass across the southern coastal waters
this afternoon and evening. Leftover E swell will maintain 5 ft
seas on outer waters where Small Craft Advisories remain posted. 
Otherwise, relatively light winds and seas expected through
Thursday.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain, snow likely,
freezing rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain, snow. Visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain, chance of snow. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. 

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow
showers. 

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas
up to 12 ft. Chance of snow. 

Monday: gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up
to 19 ft. Chance of snow. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/RM
AVIATION...Frank/RM
MARINE...Frank/RM