Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 260728
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
228 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes since the last forecast. Guidance continues to
indicate seasonably mild temperatures through Saturday, then turning
cold again on Sunday. Unsettled weather remains possible next
week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable today and Friday, then warm Saturday.
- Cold front may bring snow showers Sunday morning, then Arctic
outbreak brings well below normal temperatures to start the
week
- Unsettled weather remains possible next week, but uncertainty
remains high.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Seasonable today and Friday, then warm Saturday.
The region remains under a weak troughing pattern through the rest
of the week, keeping it in near-normal high temperatures in the
upper 30s to low 40s during the day, but still chilly at night, with
lows tonight dipping into the teens and low single digits, aided by
good radiational cooling. Skies today start mainly sunny but turn
mostly cloudy as a low-pressure system passes well offshore.
Guidance continues to keep precipitation well offshore with a low
chance for snow showers over Nantucket. Building an upper-level
ridge will bring sunny skies Friday and Saturday, with warmer-than-
normal temps in the mid to upper 40s expected on Saturday.
Key Message 2...Cold front may bring snow showers Sunday morning, then Arctic
outbreak brings well below normal temperatures to start the week
Stronger shortwave trough passes to the North across Northern New
England late Saturday into Sunday, sending a Cold front down into
the region early Sunday. Moisture will be rather limited with this
cold front, but there may be enough forcing to squeeze out a few
snow showers Sunday morning. High temperatures behind the cold
front on Sunday only reach the low to mid-30s. An Arctic airmass
then enters the region from Sunday night through Monday night. Low
temperatures on Sunday and Monday morning will be in or near the
single digits, with Mondays highs in the low to mid 20s. Winds will
be rather calm during this arctic outbreak, keeping the wind chill
index from dropping below zero.
Key Message 3...Unsettled weather remains possible next week,
but uncertainty remains high.
Temperatures are expected to warm back to more seasonal levels
Tuesday through the rest of next week, with highs in the upper 30s
to low 40s. As for the precipitation outlook into next week,
guidance has yet to lock on to a consistent solution; however, a
shortwave may drop down from northern New England on Monday with
another shortwave exiting the Great Lakes sometime midweek. This
could lead to more unsettled weather, but uncertainty remains high.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...
Today through Friday Morning...High confidence in trends with
moderate confidence in timing.
Conditions improving to VFR tonight with the exception of
during any brief precipitation through 09z with a cold frontal
passage. A line of mixed snow and rain showers will push through
MA and may reach the I-95 corridor in the 06z to 09z timeframe. This
activity may result in briefly lower cigs/vsbys. Otherwise...VFR
conditions behind this activity right through tonight.
Generally south-southwest winds 5-10 knots, but expecting a
period of LLWS ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds then
become light NW tonight and should decouple in the typical
spots. It's possible Cape and Island terminals see some light
snow showers late tonight into Fri morning as a low passes far
offshore.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate
confidence in timing.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate
confidence in timing.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Friday Morning...High confidence.
Southwesterly winds 20-25 knots diminish across the southern
waters but remain across the northern waters into the morning
hours. Seas 5-7 feet linger across the southern outer waters
through Friday so SCA headlines will remain.
Nonetheless...lingering swell across our southern waters will
only slowly diminish so small craft headlines will need to
continue well into Thu.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
freezing spray.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-
237.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST Friday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KP
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...McMinn
Meta data:
ID: 9fdc4c67-732c-460b-8bbc-d789fc02e8cf
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https://api.weather.gov/products/9fdc4c67-732c-460b-8bbc-d789fc02e8cf
Index:
https://api.weather.gov/products/types/AFD/locations/BOX