Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

28°F

2/14/2026 6:25am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 27.7°F / -2.4°C
Dew Point: 17.1°F
Relative Humidity: 64%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.99 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Snow Today: 0.0 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 131658
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1158 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No major changes to the forecast. The coastal storm threat 
Sunday night into Monday continues to diminish with the track 
likely too far south of southern New England.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures Fri/Sat with mainly dry conditions
  outside a few brief spot flurries/snow showers possible late
  Fri night/Sat am.

- A significant winter storm is becoming less likely as model 
  guidance comes into better consensus for Sunday night into 
  Monday.

- A warming trend for next week, featuring a low chance of 
  reaching 50F in places. While dry, will be monitoring a mid to
  late week system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures Fri/Sat with mainly dry
conditions outside a few brief spot flurries/snow showers 
possible late Fri night/Sat morning. 

With high pressure positioned to the the south and west, expect dry 
conditions during the day today with high temperatures in the 30 to 
mid 30s. A mid-level shortwave trough arrives tonight, bringing weak 
lift across the region to trigger showers. However, limited moisture 
will likely restrict activity to scattered light snow showers or 
flurries with little accumulation. Higher chances for a shower will 
be in western MA. 

Dry weather returns for Saturday as height fields moderate behind 
the mid-level trough. Expect breezy NW winds with gusts up to 20 mph 
and temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s during the
day. 


KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant winter storm is becoming less likely 
as model guidance comes into better consensus for Sunday night into 
Monday.

Those suffering from snow and/or winter fatigue might be pleased to 
know that a significant winter storm from Sunday night into Monday 
appears less likely at this time. A positively tilted trough moves 
across Baja California today, reaching the panhandle of Texas late 
Saturday afternoon, developing an area of low pressure over the Red 
River Basin. Guidance has come into better consensus, the area of 
low pressure associated with the southern-stream shortwave traverses 
the deep south, exiting off the Carolina coast late Sunday evening. 
As previously mentioned, a northern-stream shortwave ejecting out of 
the Great Lakes region during this same timeframe steers the coastal 
system out to sea. The ECMWF AI ensemble places the coastal low 
further north, with the edge of the precipitation shield grazing the 
southern most areas of RI & southeast MA. One thing we've noticed 
this winter, the depicted precipitation shield through AI models is a 
bit more coarse. ECMWF ensembles have provided outlying members the 
last couple of days, it appears with the most recent set of guidance 
the clustering has become more densely packed together near the mean 
area of low pressure southeast of the bench mark. Given the full 
suite of GFS guidance being offshore, it would be suggested this is 
a shutout for snow. While the ECMWF suite of guidance presents what 
are low probabilities (20-40%) of 1.0" of snow between 1pm Sunday 
and 1pm Monday across coastal RI and coastal areas of southeast MA. 
If we were to get any snow, this is where we'd expected it. As such 
we've maintained 'slight chance' PoPs (15-25%) for said area during 
that part of the forecast period. 


Key Message 3...A warming trend for next week, featuring a low 
chance of reaching 50F in places. While dry, will be monitoring a 
mid to late week system. 

Monday to Thursday is seasonable, albeit warmer, with the warmest 
temperatures expected to occur Tuesday and Wednesday, from warm air 
advecting into the northeast as mid-level heights increase with 
ridging across the central CONUS. Given the prolong cold, it's hard 
to believe the climatological high is around 35F in the interior and 
40F for the coastal plain. Probabilities of high temperatures 
climbing above 40F on Tuesday and Wednesday are high, 70-90%. 
Probabilities lower when reviewing potential for high temperatures 
of 50F+, roughly a 10-20% chance for areas away from the influence 
of the ocean and the high terrain of northern and western MA. While 
days are warm, nights are seasonable in the upper 20s to low 30s. 
During this timeframe, our weather is primarily dominated by high 
pressure, leading to a fairly dry period. Will need to keep an out 
out for a mid to late week system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

High confidence in the TAF through Sunday. VFR conditions 
persist through the weekend with dry weather outside a brief 
spot flurry or two late tonight into Sat morning. Light winds 
generally 10 knots or less through the weekend decoupling in the
typical spots during the overnight/early morning hours.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday night through Tuesday/...

Sunday Night and Washingtons Birthday: VFR. 

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday... High confidence.

Lingering swell across the eastern outer-waters continue to diminish 
early this morning, falling below 5 ft shortly after sunrise. Then 
an area of high pressure builds in from the west. Westerly winds are 
light today, 8-12 kt becoming southwesterly Saturday with occasional 
gust 16-20 kt. Seas during this period are generally between 2-4 ft. 
While this is a dry period, a weak cold front does moves across the 
waters late Friday night into early Saturday morning, brief light 
snow possible. 

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Washingtons Birthday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of
rain, slight chance of snow. 

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM EST Sunday for 
     ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Sunday for 
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Frank
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch