Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

61°F

5/17/2024 9:21am

Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 61.0°F / 16.1°C
Dew Point: 54.7°F
Relative Humidity: 80%
Wind: NE Calm, 10-min avg: 1 mph, gust: 5 mph
Barometer: 29.97 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for North Platte, NE

        
000
FXUS63 KLBF 142027
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
  this evening, mainly affecting northern Nebraska. The hazards
  are severe wind gusts, large hail and the potential or
  landspouts or an isolated tornado.

- The next chance for severe weather arrives Sunday and lasts
  through Tuesday. It is important to note the area of concern
  for severe weather appears to be mostly south and east of wrn
  and ncntl Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A fairly vigorous and compact upper level low circulating across ern 
WY/wrn SD this afternoon will move east through SD tonight. This 
storm system produced about 20 or so severe wind reports across ID 
Monday but is poised to produce less severe weather across wrn and 
ncntl Nebraska late this afternoon and this evening.

The severe weather concerns according to the RAP and HRRR are wind 
gusts, large hail and the potential for landspouts and an isolated 
tornado. The focus for severe weather this afternoon revolves around 
a developing triple point across the Sandhills but the latest HRRR 
and RAP model solutions suggest this feature is less pronounced. The 
reason for this is that the Pacific front behind the dry surge is 
rapidly overtaking this surge of dry air. Still, a triple pt should 
develop near highway 83 by 00z. Isolated severe storm development is 
possible along or just north of this area. 

Another strong or severe storm could develop post-frontal across 
nwrn Nebraska this afternoon posing a severe wind threat and perhaps 
a marginal severe hail threat. A third area for isolated strong 
storm development is possible in the deeply mixed super-heated air 
across swrn Nebraska. 

The storm activity across the north will move east through ncntl 
Nebraska this evening while the activity south moves toward KS. The 
latest HRRR/RAP model runs are showing potential for upscale growth 
in both areas and the HRRR indicates the upscale growth across ncntl 
Nebraska could lead to strong/severe wind gusts later this evening.

Winds aloft at h500mb will be strong near 40kts for this event and 
the MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG in spots suggests isolated supercell 
potential. Across much of the region it appears the strong shear 
relative to the modest instability will limit severe storm coverage 
to isolated. The BRN is less than 25 across much of ncntl Nebraska 
this evening, according to the models.

Satellite shows a second upper low across ern ID/wrn WY this 
afternoon; very close to the lead disturbance. It is extremely 
unusual for two storm systems to be located so close together. The 
result will likely be a second round of elevated, mainly diurnally 
forced, post-frontal showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

POPs tonight and Wednesday lean on the short term model blend plus 
the HRRR and RAP models. A limiter caps rain chances at 60 percent 
tonight and this might be generous given the spartan storm 
coverage suggested by the HRRR and RAP models. Scattered POPs are in 
place Wednesday. The loss of diurnal heating Wednesday night should 
present a dry forecast from late Wednesday evening onward.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A dry forecast is in place Thursday through Saturday.

The next substantial rain chance is Sunday and Monday and the 
GFS, the faster model, has been advertising this for several model 
runs. The ECM and GEM have sped up matching the timing of the GFS. A 
long wave trof should build into the the wrn U.S. this weekend 
drawing a belt of strong subtropical winds north toward Nebraska. 
Winds aloft will become very strong, 50-70kts at h300mb, and this 
belt of strong winds will be mostly focused south and east of 
wrn/ncntl Nebraska.

Likely POPs are in place across wrn/ncntl Nebraska Sunday and Monday 
for disturbances rotating northeast through the trof. Chance POPs 
are in place Tuesday. The better chances for severe weather appear 
to be south and east and this is based on the location of a sfc low 
the models show across wrn KS. If the low forms further north or 
west, wrn/ncntl Nebraska would be favored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The threat for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon-most
notably over north central Nebraska. The greatest threat for
thunderstorms will reside during the 22z to 02z time frame late
this afternoon into the early evening hours. Will handle the
thunder mention with a tempo group for the KVTN terminal
forecast, and a VCTS mention for the KLBF terminal. This is due
to better forecast confidence in thunderstorm coverage over
northern Nebraska vs. southwestern Nebraska. Behind the exiting
thunderstorms, broken cloud coverage will remain at the KVTN
terminal with ceilings around 2000 FT AGL. Expect scattered to
broken clouds ranging from 7000 to 25000 FT AGL to persist
overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Buttler