Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

71°F

5/17/2024 1:08pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 70.5°F / 21.4°C
Dew Point: 54.1°F
Relative Humidity: 56%
Wind: SE 3 mph, 10-min avg: 2 mph, gust: 8 mph
Barometer: 29.93 in Rising Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for North Platte, NE

        
000
FXUS63 KLBF 140541
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1241 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms return to the area tomorrow afternoon into 
  Wednesday ahead of a frontal boundary, some of which could be 
  strong.

-  Warm and drier conditions then round out the workweek, with 
   highs well above average (mid/upper 80s) Friday and Saturday.

-  More active weather (thunderstorms and precipitation) could 
   return by late weekend and persist into early next week, 
   though confidence in this remains low for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Currently, the area sits in a post-frontal airmass, on the 
northwestern periphery of an upper low centered over eastern 
KS/western MO. Temperatures have climbed into the 70s across the 
area, with diurnal cumulus development noted across much of western 
and north central Nebraska. 

Lapse rates remain steep enough in the lowest few kilometers aloft 
to squeeze out at least some CAPE across the area this afternoon. 
That said, very nebulous surface features and limited convergence 
has largely precluded any widely isolated thunderstorm development 
thus far. Cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm across north 
central Nebraska (where an outflow boundary is sliding westward into 
Holt/Wheeler counties as I type this) though confidence is too low 
to add precipitation mention for now. By tonight, a quick moving 
shortwave will begin to push eastward across WY, with an associated 
surface low gradually deepening across eastern WY overnight. This 
will transition low level flow back southward, and lead to 
increasing warm advection through the overnight hours. That said, 
the warm advection does look somewhat meager, and should only boost 
lows into the middle/upper 40s (to near 50 in northwest Nebraska) 
across the area tonight. 

The aforementioned shortwave will then begin to eject eastward 
across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon, reaching eastern 
SD by tomorrow night. The associated broad surface low will 
eject eastward across the Dakotas tomorrow afternoon as well, 
dragging a trough axis to near the HWY 83 corridor by late 
afternoon. At the same time, a cold front will begin to enter 
northwest Nebraska, approaching the meandering trough axis by 
late evening. Ahead of the surface trough, dewpoints will climb 
into the lower 50s, and will promote at least some MLCAPE, 
though lapse rates look to remain somewhat meager (H7-H5 lapse 
rates of 6.5-7.5 degC/km) aloft. That said, hodographs do 
lengthen with height into the afternoon hours as mid-level flow 
increases in response to the approaching shortwave. Deep layer 
shear of 30-40kts is anticipated tomorrow afternoon, with 
largely straight line hodographs on forecast soundings. 
Scattered thunderstorm development is possible ahead of the 
encroaching surface trough by late tomorrow afternoon, primarily
near/east of HWY 83. Another regime of convective initiation is
possible across the higher terrain of WY, which could push east
with time into northwest Nebraska. With both regimes, cannot 
rule out a strong to briefly severe storm, as the increasing 
deep layer shear could support some updraft organization. Hail 
would be possible amid the aforementioned straight-line 
hodographs, though the meager lapse rates aloft/meager 
instability put this somewhat in question. Any organized 
convection would support a strong wind threat however, with high
LCLs and very steep lapse rates in the lowest few kilometers. 
This activity should push east of the area after sunset, while 
also weakening with the loss of diurnal heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Another shortwave, on the southwestern periphery of tomorrow's 
system, will push southeast across CO Wednesday, with a renewed 
threat for shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon 
hours. As with tomorrow's thunderstorm activity, meager instability 
will primarily hold back any strong storm threat, though this 
remains a little uncertain for now. Heights rise in the wake of the 
Wednesday shortwave across the central Plains, and shortwave ridging 
translates across the area through Friday. This will lead to drier 
conditions and quickly warming temperatures, as low level flow turns 
southwesterly and increases warm advection. In fact, highs look
to climb into the middle to upper 80s (even approaching 90 
across southwest Nebraska) Friday afternoon. 

Guidance continues to hint at a return to a more active weather 
regime as we head into the weekend and early next week, as 
southwesterly flow attempts to establish aloft. This will need to be 
monitored closely, as this could lead to increasing precipitation 
chances and a returning threat for rounds of severe weather into 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected the remainder of tonight into
Tuesday morning. Winds will be light through the overnight
around 5 kts or less. Winds will be out of the south in the
afternoon around 10 to 15 kts with gust up to 20 kts. There will
be showers and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and 
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Gomez