Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

59°F

5/16/2024 8:57pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 58.6°F / 14.8°C
Dew Point: 54.1°F
Relative Humidity: 85%
Wind: WNW 1 mph, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: 1 mph
Barometer: 29.88 in Rising Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.45 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for North Platte, NE

        
000
FXUS63 KLBF 152326
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and storms rest of this afternoon to evening.

-Quiet and dry Thursday and much of Friday

-Active weather returns with periods of showers and storms this
 weekend into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Lingering scattered rain showers continue this afternoon, as seen by 
radar returns over portions of northern and eastern Nebraska. 
Further surface analysis shows a cold front over eastern Nebraska 
tied to a weak area of low pressure currently centered in eastern 
South Dakota. Will see increasing chances for showers and storms as 
a weak wave with the departing system passes across Nebraska this 
afternoon into the early evening. Model soundings depict MLCAPE 
values around 1500J/kg with effective shear values around 30 knots 
and somewhat steep lapse rates paired with dry low levels. Overall 
not expecting severe weather with this activity, though gusty winds 
and periods of heavier showers with any storms are possible, though 
some small hail cannot be ruled out. Little in the way of additional 
rainfall is expected, with models generally agreeing on values less 
than 0.25-0.50 inches, highest further east. Temperatures this 
afternoon are expected to top out in the 60s to low 70s, along with 
slightly breezy northwest winds. Clearing skies are expected into 
the evening with winds turning light and temperatures dropping into 
the 40s over the region. 

Looking at a period of dry and pleasant weather Thursday as a small 
ridge axis pushes across the region in between systems. Mostly sunny 
skies Thursday with light westerly flow will allow for warmer 
temperatures as highs are expected through the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

As the aforementioned ridge departs Friday, low level flow will
increase and turn more southwesterly, with warm air advection 
surging into the state ahead of a large area of deepening 
surface low pressure system tracking eastward across the far 
northwestern CONUS Friday. This will result in temperatures 
reaching into the mid to upper 80s into the afternoon. As the 
negatively tilted upper level trough associated with the 
previously mentioned surface low pivots across the Dakotas into 
eastern Wyoming late Friday and into Saturday, a weak wave 
moving into the state looks to bring the chance for showers and 
storms. With much better forcing for convection further north 
however, the potential for much activity within the CWA is 
looking low end (<20% chance per most recent model guidance). 
Overall not expecting severe weather with any activity that may 
occur, but will continue to keep an eye on this potential over 
the next few days. 

Cold air advection pushes into the state following the departing 
system, with high pressure following which will allow for dry and 
quiet conditions for the remainder of Saturday. Highs will be cooler 
as a result with values in the 70s. Active weather is expected to 
increase by Sunday through early next week as a large upper level 
low pressure system circulating over southern Canada eventually 
phases with another trough lifting out of the Desert Southwest by 
Tuesday. This will result in several waves of showers and storms to 
push through the Central Plains, which per model guidance looks to 
at least come with a better chance for at least some periods 
stronger storms and more appreciable rainfall. Too far out to get 
specific on the details however, so will be watching closely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions with light winds expected at TAF sites this valid
period.

There may be some VFR cumulus lingering behind earlier
showers/storms, but expect it will diminish with loss of heating
followed by just some mid/high clouds. With recent 
precipitation there may be some patchy fog around late 
tonight/toward daybreak mainly in the valleys along the rivers 
but probability for OBVIS at the airfields is 20 percent or 
less so will not include with this TAF package. 

Winds will be light through the end of the valid period at 10kt
or less.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...MBS