Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS63 KLBF 141729 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1229 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and continue into this evening. Some thunderstorms may be strong to briefly severe. - Showers and thunderstorms chances continue Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. - Warm and drier conditions Thursday and Friday, with highs well above average in the low to mid 80s Friday. - A more active weather pattern returns Saturday night, and again Sunday night through Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A shortwave trough was currently analyzed across central Wyoming and will progress eastward across western South Dakota and western Nebraska this afternoon. An inverted surface trough will extend from eastern Colorado into the western Sandhills by mid afternoon, where highs will warm into the upper 70s to around 80. Ahead of the surface trough, dewpoints will climb into the lower 50s, with MLCAPEs near 1000 J/KG. Mid- level flow increases in response to the approaching shortwave. Deep layer shear of 30-40kts is expected with a fairly straight line hodographs on forecast soundings. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible by mid afternoon near the surface trough across the western Sandhills, becoming scattered by late afternoon and early evening, primarily near/east of HWY 83. Strong to briefly severe storms are supportive, as the increasing deep layer shear could support some updraft organization. With pre-storm soundings indicating a fairly dry airmass up to 700mb, damaging winds should be the primary threat, although some marginally severe hail may accompany the strongest storms. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC west of Highway 281. All activity will continue to move east after sunset, while also weakening with the loss of diurnal heating. A longwave trough will move into the Dakotas and Wyoming overnight, pushing a cold front at least halfway through the area. This will keep chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to the western Sandhills and southwest after midnight as well. On Wednesday, this main upper trough will move across Nebraska, maintaining chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. The focus for any strong storms will reside across Kansas into southeast Nebraska, as a cold front moves through western Nebraska. Highs will be cooler from the mid 60s to low 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 After a few lingering showers or storms Wednesday evening, mainly dry conditions expected Thursday though Friday as mid level height rises occur. Highs by Friday to warm into the low to mid 80s. Storm chances increase Saturday night, and again Sunday night through Monday as an upper ridge persists across the Southern Plains and an upper trough develops across the Western U.S. This will result in a more active weather pattern across the Northern into the Central Plains. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday to the mid 70s to near 80 Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The threat for thunderstorms will increase this afternoon-most notably over north central Nebraska. The greatest threat for thunderstorms will reside during the 22z to 02z time frame late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Will handle the thunder mention with a tempo group for the KVTN terminal forecast, and a VCTS mention for the KLBF terminal. This is due to better forecast confidence in thunderstorm coverage over northern Nebraska vs. southwestern Nebraska. Behind the exiting thunderstorms, broken cloud coverage will remain at the KVTN terminal with ceilings around 2000 FT AGL. Expect scattered to broken clouds ranging from 7000 to 25000 FT AGL to persist overnight into Wednesday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Buttler
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