Lexington Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

70°F

5/17/2024 1:20pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 69.6°F / 20.9°C
Dew Point: 54.1°F
Relative Humidity: 58%
Wind: NNW 3 mph, 10-min avg: 3 mph, gust: 6 mph
Barometer: 29.93 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in

Area Forecast Discussion
for North Platte, NE

        
000
FXUS63 KLBF 122026
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
326 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Three storm systems will cross the cntl/nrn Plains during the
  next 7 days- One tonight and Monday, then Tuesday night and
  Wednesday followed a third Thursday night and Friday.

- The risk of anything more than an isolated strong or severe
  thunderstorm during the next 7 days is low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The area of deformation and rain operating across scntl and 
swrn Nebraska this afternoon should shift south and east as the 
upper low across Colo moves east into KS tonight. The rain 
forecast uses the short term model blend plus the NAM and HREF. 

Rain processes have been top-down and this suggests lapse rates have 
moistened up. Nonetheless, isolated thunderstorms are underway 
across the Sandhills and south of Interstate 80. The forecast 
continues isolated thunderstorm chances overnight. The thunderstorms 
are mainly for the early evening hours as suggested by the HRRR
echo tops product. A warm sector has opened up across the 
Sandhills, ncntl and swrn Nebraska this afternoon supporting 
instability. Sfc obs show this underway and an approaching cold 
front from the north supports thunderstorms this evening.

All of this rain should be south and east of the area by mid morning 
Monday. Drier air will move in aloft for partly cloudy skies. The 
temperature forecast Monday uses the short term model blend plus the 
NBM 50th. Wrn/ncntl Nebraska will be under a WAA zone Monday 
afternoon and this will support highs in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The next item of interest is the prospect of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The models show an upper 
level disturbance off the coast of British Columbia moving east 
through the nrn Plains during this time. Only the NAM and GEMreg
models show storms developing across ncntl Nebraska Tuesday 
afternoon. The concern is winds aloft at h500mb will be strong,
30-45kt, K-indices well in the 30s to near 40 and perhaps 1500 
J/KG of MLCAPE will be in place. The models are in good 
agreement showing this disturbance off of BC moving through the 
Dakotas during the afternoon for upper level support. All of 
this could support an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm 
chance across ncntl Nebraska. 

Additional shower and thunderstorm chance is in place for a 
cold front moving through Tuesday night with rain chances 
lasting into Wednesday.

A storm system south of the Aleutians will track south and 
east, perhaps crossing the nrn Plains Thursday or Friday, 
according to the ECM. The GFS tracks the system through the 
central provinces of Canada. The forecast is for isolated 
thunderstorms with this system but it's worth noting the ECM 
with it's srn storm track suggests significant post-frontal 
convection Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A low pressure system tracking through the region brings widespread 
showers and potential for thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight 
across southwest Nebraska. Additionally, a cold front pushing south 
from the Dakotas is causing a line of thunderstorms to form across 
the northern Sandhills. However, VFR conditions are still expected 
to prevail throughout the TAF period. For now, have omitted thunder 
from the TAFs for KLBF, as current model guidance has the 
thunderstorms weakening before reaching the terminal, however, this 
may need amendment if storms overperform. Winds will mostly remain 
northerly to northeasterly, but may become a bit erratic around 
thunderstorms and the frontal boundary.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Richie